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The NRL doesn’t mind borrowing from the NFL, so what are the chances of the grand final mirroring one of the great Super Bowl upsets on Sunday?
The grand final, at least in the lead-up, reminds me a bit of the 2008 Super Bowl, when the New England Patriots started as hot favourites against the New York Giants.
The Patriots were trying to complete an unbeaten season, having won all of their 16 regular-season games plus two playoff matches.
The Giants had qualified for the playoffs as a wild card team, the NFL equivalent of finishing in the bottom half of the NRL’s top eight.
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They won three playoff games to make it to the Super Bowl, but were given little chance of upsetting an opposition that had a superstar quarterback in Tom Brady and the best coach in football in Bill Belichick.
The Giants won 17-14, the feature being an incredible play in which quarterback Eli Manning appeared certain to be sacked but somehow avoided it before throwing a 32-yard pass that David Tyree miraculously caught and held as part of the match-winning touchdown drive.
South Sydney, as we all know, aren’t unbeaten this season. They weren’t even minor premiers. But they are all the rage for the grand final after smashing Manly and Sydney Roosters in their two finals appearances.
They are at similarly prohibitive odds to the star-studded Souths team that played Balmain in the famous 1969 grand final, which, of course, the Rabbitohs lost. Souths won the two grand finals immediately before that and the two straight after.
Canterbury, like the Giants, weren’t in great form going into the finals series, but have raised the bar when it absolutely matters to score wins over Melbourne, Manly and Penrith.
They haven’t looked as good as the Rabbitohs, but are there alongside them for the last game of the season.
Like the Patriots and Giants, Souths and Canterbury played a very competitive match against each other late in the regular season.
The Rabbitohs trailed for a long time against the Bulldogs in the second-last round before scoring nine points in the last eight minutes and winning 21-14.
The Patriots came from behind in the final quarter to beat the Giants 38-35 in what was a last-round match.
It is only a matter of time before a team wins the grand final from the bottom half of the top eight.
The NRL wanted parity and it has achieved that, via the salary cap. This year’s competition was the most even of the modern era.
Canterbury finished seventh, but they were only two wins outside of the top four and they did have significant injury and suspension problems during the season.
Based on form in the finals series, they don’t look like a team that has managed to come from the bottom half of the top eight to make the grand final. They look like a top-four team.
So maybe there’s not nearly as much difference between the Rabbitohs and the Bulldogs as some people think.
When a competition is as even as this one, form can become less reliable and how well the two teams present themselves on the day can become even more important than usual.
Don’t forget that after Souths went on a five-game winning streak from rounds 19 to 23 – a run in which their smallest winning margin was 16 points and their biggest was 40 – they were right off their game the following week against North Queensland and were beaten.
No-one saw that coming.
Souths deserve to be favourites against Canterbury, but let’s not get carried away. Those who are tipping the Rabbitohs to bolt in could be in for a surprise – a contest might break out.
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