Hot on the heels of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes result, and following on from Alfred Chan’s fine article ‘Australian staying stocks are on the rise‘, it would be remiss of me not to write an article on the recent trend of entires – rather than geldings – winning the Melbourne Cup.
This race has become a minefield for punters with so many internationals engaged, along with some fairly recently acquired imports now in the hands of our very capable trainers.
Given that seven of the last eight winners have been entires though, have we stumbled on a sure-fire system to find the next victor?
Looking further back into the record books, 12 of the past 25 winners have been entires, so it’s definitely worth pursuing.
The last four winners to win the race have actually been six-year-old entires Fiorente, Green Moon, Dunaden and Americain. All started their racing in Europe, with the latter two being international spring invaders who both managed to win the Geelong Cup prior.
Delta Blues, who won in 2006, was also a six-year-old who raided from Japan, and prior ran a close third in the Caulfield Cup.
Shocking was a four-year-old Australian who won in 2009, and Viewed, a five-year-old trained by Bart Cummings, won narrowly in 2008.
It’s also worth noting that all of these winners dropped quite significantly in weight from their previous start, bar Delta Blues who carried the same weight that he did in the Caulfield Cup, and all but Shocking had decent weight-for-age form leading into the race.
We are yet to see an International entire winning the race under six years of age, so that might be a good place to start a review of this year’s entire candidates.
Admire Rakti
From Japan, this horse will carry top weight of 58kg, and even higher if he wins the Caulfield Cup, where he will carry the same impost.
If he manages to carry his allocated weight to victory, it will establish a new weight carrying record for an imported horse. It must be remembered though that weights are being raised 2kg for all runners this year, so it isn’t as onerous a task as it might seem.
He has a similar strike rate to that of Delta Blues at a similar stage, and there is no doubt he will run the distance given he has won over 3400m in Japan. His excellent fourth in the Japan Cup (2400m) behind the world-class mare Gentildonna definitely indicates he has the class, and he may have gone better in that race had the tempo been more genuine.
His last run this year was a bit below par but he did still beat home Red Cadeaux, who is a decent measuring stick. If he runs well in the Caulfield Cup it will be difficult to ignore his chances at 3200m.
Puissance De Lune
Pretty much the ideal candidate. He is a former import who has had a couple of seasons here now, and was the early favourite for the race last year. That mission had to aborted due to injury and he has been taken along very slowly this spring, with the Melbourne Cup supposedly not on the agenda.
I’m not sure what trainer Darren Weir has in mind, but the horse has improved at each run this campaign and surely if he runs well in the Turnbull this Saturday some serious thought has to be given to running him at 3200m.
He is WFA class and has an affinity for Flemington, having easily won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m two years ago.
The big negative is that he has to record a peak performance at 2300m or above to be granted a start. I’m guessing that means he has to win the Caulfield Cup.
Some might question his stamina too, but a dominant 2600m win goes some way to allaying those fears. He has 56kg to carry in the big race.
Sea Moon
Is the right age and fully acclimatised now, but a bit of a mystery, still not having raced this spring. A very light campaign and fresh for all the big staying races?
He is a world-class galloper but from what we know, and on breeding, he isn’t a 3200m horse. Happy for the stable to prove me wrong though.
Was well supported in the Cup last year but didn’t get the best of luck in the run, finishing nine-and-a-half lengths off the winner.
Gris Caro
This former French galloper has hit form at the right time, winning the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield last start. That was his second win here after one win in a three-start spring in 2013.
He did run a close second to Mourinho in last year’s JRA Cup (big gap to third), which looks pretty decent form now.
The Caulfield Cup will tell us a lot more about this horse but it would appear 2400m might be a stretch for him distance-wise, so 3200m is a huge query. His breeding doesn’t inspire huge confidence in that regard either.
Caravan Rolls On
The former English galloper has won a 3200m race in this country – the Sandown Cup at the end of last spring, where he beat an average lot.
Two starts this campaign have been ordinary, but he did run on okay last Saturday over 2400m at Sandown, and just might be a dour two miler.
He has 51.5kg in the Melbourne Cup and surely will struggle to make the field. If he does he is likely to be outclassed, but any vast improvement in his ratings from this point would be encouraging.
Protectionist
A French horse who has a great profile for an import, having won the same race that both Americain and Dunaden contested in France prior to winning at Flemington. He is two years younger though and has a lot less experience, with only seven starts for three wins and four placings.
His Prix Kergorlay Victory last start was at 3000m, and was his first run beyond 2400m. Some effort in retrospect, and the fact it was on a slow track gives us little ammunition to question his stamina.
He did beat a small field though and the time was seventeen seconds slower (yes 17!) than what American recorded in 2010 when winning on a dry track.
He looks a robust and strong horse though, so he might handle the travel over and any buffeting he might encounter in our bigger fields. He is yet to win on a good-rated track, but does boast a close placing on one, and has won on a dead-rated surface.
His formlines are definitely solid enough, but I’m not sure the 56.5kg he has been allocated for the Cup puts him in the well-weighted category, given his limited number of career starts.
With only 54.5kg in the Caulfield Cup he looks a live chance in that race. Winning that really would make it difficult for him at Flemington though, envisaging a minimum 1.5kg penalty.
Bande
The second of the Japanese runners, he too has been allocated 56.5kg in the big race and is likely to attempt the race via the Caulfield Cup. That weight seems fair enough though, given he was half a length from Admire Rakti three starts ago in receipt of 1kg. He has won a listed race over 2600m by five lengths since, and has had five more career starts than Protectionist.
He has a decent third in the Japanese St Leger over 3000m on his resume, when beaten by five-and-a-half lengths on a slow-rated track, so it is doubtful his stamina can be questioned.
He is a half brother to a high-class horse called Doctor Dino who is well known to Hong Kong racegoers, having won two Group 1 Vases there. He made all in front last start winning by five lengths over 2600m and nothing made ground on him at the finish.
He looks a formidable chance given he brings his Japanese form to these shores. Only thing I’m not sure about his his left-handed track form. The prior win was in the clockwise direction and so was his Group 2 fourth when narrowly beaten by Admire Rakti at Hanshin.
Spillway
In fine form this spring for trainers David Hayes and Ton Dabernig. We have to completely forgive his last effort when he had no luck whatsoever as a firm favourite and the run will have taken very little out of him heading into his upcoming Group 1 races. His fourth in the Makybe Diva behind Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune reads well for him class wise, and the 54.5kg he has been allocated in the big race is a winnable weight.
3200m could be a problem for him though, given his best form is below 2400m, and his breeding doesn’t obviously suggest great stamina. Not having won a race beyond 2200m just isn’t a winning profile for this race in the modern era, but a solid finishing effort in the Caulfield Cup might suggest otherwise.
Unlikely he can win the Melbourne Cup, but you can’t totally write him off either.
Puccini
A New Zealander with a ton of courage and a fair deal of staying ability. His more immediate goals are definitely the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup, and you’d have to say he would have to run well or win either of those to be given a shot at the 3200m. He isn’t bred to run that distance but his win in the New Zealand Derby was a strong one and some questioned his ability to run 2400m beforehand.
He still has to prove himself away from home, with two poor efforts recorded in Sydney during the Autumn at his only runs here. They were most likely failures due to wet tracks though, given he failed again on one of those first up in New Zealand recently.
Back to a reasonably dry surface he bounced back to form, winning second-up, so it would seem imperative that he gets firmish going to win anything in Melbourne this spring.
We also have some older entires that look to be serious contenders, but you have to go back to 1893 and Tarcoola to find the last winner who was seven years of age. Nevertheless, there are three worthy of mention.
Dandino
Ran a bottler in this race last year as the eye-catching late finisher. Fiorente won off a similar type profile last year, though he did place second and not fifth the prior Spring.
Green Moon
Won this race in 2012 but pulled up lame last year when 21st of 24 runners.
A promising return for him this spring in the Makybe Diva, only beaten by three lengths, and he does love Flemington.
Cavalryman
Godolphin runner who has some very decent 3200m form, but it would appear once again that the stable will not run one of their representatives in a lead-up race.
Not sure what is in their thinking as only one import has ever won this race without a run here, and that was 21 years ago on a bog track by a horse with better form who got in well at the weights.
It is quite likely that another entire will win this year, and it would appear that the two Japanese horses are the most likely.
The 2006 edition saw two similarly credentialed Japanese horses run the quinella and put a decent gap on the rest of the field.
I have a slight preference for Admire Rakti given he is a six-year-old, although if Puissance De Lune does make the field this year he looks a very strong winning hope, barring a recurrence of injury.
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