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Mitch Marsh’s hamstring injury could see both Ben Hilfenhaus and Glenn Maxwell return to Australia’s line-up for the first Test against Pakistan in 12 days’ time.
Marsh had been considered a near-certainty to make his Test debut as a like-for-like replacement for injured all-rounder Shane Watson on the tour of the United Arab Emirates.
But it now looks unlikely he will be selected, after being ruled out of the preceding one day international and T20 matches due to a hamstring strain.
Marsh hurt his left hamstring while playing for the Perth Scorchers in the Champions Trophy T20 tournament last week.
Although the injury was a strain not a tear, it is of serious concern because Marsh had surgery on the same hamstring previously.
With Marsh seemingly out of Test contention, Maxwell is all but guaranteed of playing in the opening Test in Dubai and the knock-on effect is that Hilfenhaus also is increasingly likely to play.
It had looked as though Australia would play two spinners, with left-arm spinner Steve O’Keefe to join incumbent tweaker Nathan Lyon. The rationale for such a selection would be that O’Keefe is very similar in style to Sri Lankan spinner Rangana Herath, who took 37 wickets at an average of 23 across his team’s five Tests against Pakistan this year.
With Marsh able to provide a strong third pace option, Australia’s attack would have remained balanced even with two frontline spinners. But if Maxwell is the fifth bowler that drastically reduces the likelihood of Australia playing both Lyon and O’Keefe.
In temperatures expected to nudge 40C, Australian coach Darren Lehmann said that the side’s all-rounder will be required to deliver plenty of overs.
Were Australia to play two specialist tweakers, Maxwell’s off spin would be overkill on a Dubai pitch which has been helpful to pacemen in the past. During the last Test at the ground, between Sri Lanka and Pakistan, both teams fielded three specialist quicks and those bowlers accounted for 21 of the 31 wickets which fell in the match.
Hence, Hilfenhaus and tall, left-arm swing bowler Mitchell Starc will come into the frame in Marsh’s absence. On first glance, Starc would appear to have the edge over the Tasmanian considering he was chosen in Australia’s initial Test squad, whereas Hilfenhaus was only drafted in as a replacement for Watson.
But 31-year-old Hilfenhaus looked in fine touch in the recent Champions Trophy T20 tournament, gaining late movement through the air and bowling with good pace, at times nudging 145 kilometres per hour. He also offers far more control than Starc who, similar to attack leader Johnson, can be wayward and expensive.
With Maxwell an attacking spinner who tends to offer the batsmen plenty of opportunities to score, the Australian selectors may feel Starc is a risky selection.
By picking veteran quicks Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle, Australia would have two bowlers who could be relied upon to bowl long, tight spells while Johnson, Lyon and Maxwell hunt for wickets.
Of course, this is all educated guess-work. But it does seem that Marsh’s injury has not only guaranteed Maxwell a Test berth, but also boosted the chances of Hilfenhaus making a deserved Test comeback.
The powerfully-built Hilfenhaus snared 44 wickets at 21 over his past 10 Tests before being struck down by injury and subsequently snubbed by the selectors. With the plethora of young Australian pacemen who emerged in his absence, it appeared as though his days in the baggy green could be over.
But injuries to all-rounders Marsh and Watson, and quicks Ryan Harris, Jackson Bird and James Pattinson could see him gain a chance for redemption in the UAE.
Given his good Test record in the UK, where he was the leading wicket-taker on either side in the 2009 Ashes, Hilfenhaus could yet make a charge for next year’s tour of England.
Maxwell, too, could revive his Test career and possibly end Watson’s if he excels against Pakistan. A nimble and assertive middle-order strokemaker, Maxwell will look to impose his will on Pakistan’s spin brigade.
But, considering the importance the Australian hierarchy place on having an effective fifth bowler, his efforts with the ball could be just as decisive in determining whether he holds Watson out of the side.