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It’s mighty hard for a rugby league forward to make a successful switch to international rugby – Sam Burgess will have to defy history.
There’s no doubting Burgess’ talent, and his courage and heroics for South Sydney are cemented in rugby league folklore.
But rugby is a vastly different game upfront, especially at scrum and ruck and maul time.
The rugby league ‘scrum’ is a blight and an embarrassment on a great game. It’s more a lean-to rabble to get 12 forwards in a confined space to allow backs more room to move.
No current league halfback has ever fed the tunnel where there’s a contest for the ball. Instead, halves feed the ball behind the second row’s feet and haven’t even time to retire behind the ‘scrum’ to retain possession.
But a rugby scrum is far more scientific, so will Burgess have enough time to acclimatise before next year’s Rugby World Cup?
That time has been lessened by the rehab Burgess must undergo since his six-hour surgery to repair the serious cheekbone and eye-socket fractures suffered in the NRL grand final.
Another difference between the codes is the tackle. In league, tackles halt proceedings to play-the-ball, allowing every player time to get back in position, whereas a rugby tackle starts a maul-ruck non-stop sequence that may well continue for 20-plus phases.
That makes the demands on a rugby forward far more physically demanding and continuous.
Since World War II, no English rugby league forward has successfully become a dual forward international. But England rugby league second-rower Andy Farrell became an England rugby centre in 2007, as did Kiwi Sonny Bill Williams make the same forward switch to become an All Black centre.
But the list is long, and talented, in the other direction: English rugby forwards who became English rugby league reps were Ray French in 1968, and Mike Coulman in 1975.
There more successful switches among the rugby backs, with Bev Risman in 1968, Keith Fielding 1975, Keith Smith 1979, Peter Williams 1989, and John Bentley in 1992.
Five successful switches from English rugby league international backs to rugby internationals were Barrie-Jon Mather in 1999, Jason Robinson 2001, Chris Ashton 2010, Kyle Eastmond 2013, and Joel Tomkins in 2013.
The list is far greater among Wallaby forwards who became Kangaroos: Ken Kearney switched in 1952, Rex Mossop 1958, Dick Thornett 1963, Kevin Ryan 1964, Ray Price 1978, and Scott Gourley in 1991.
Wallaby backs to successfully make the switch: Trevor Allan in 1950, Arthur Summons 1961, Mike Cleary 1962, Jimmy Lisle 1962, Bob Honan 1969, Phil Hawthorne 1970, John Brass 1970, Stephen Knight 1972, Geoff Richardson 1974, Michael O’Connor 1986, Ricky Stuart 1990, and Andrew Walker in 2000.
No Kangaroo forward has ever become a Wallaby, but five Kangaroo backs have become Wallabies: Wendell Sailor and Mat Rogers in 2002, Lote Tuqiri 2003, Timana Tahu 2008, and Israel Folau in 2013.
In New Zealand, no Kiwi rugby league international forward has become an All Black since World War 2, but seven All Black backs have become Kiwi rugby league internationals: Jimmy Haig in 1947, Kurt Sherlock 1969, Matthew Ridge 1990, Frano Botica 1991, John Timu 1995, Marc Ellis 1996, and Craig Innes in 1997.
So the odds are long against Sam Burgess being a success in rugby.
Time alone will be the judge.