When Peter Sagan announced himself to the greater cycling world with three stage wins at the 2012 Tour de France, there seemed to be no limit to his potential.
Not only did his bright, shining star illuminate the Tour’s grand universe, it sparked our imaginations.
While he wasn’t a pure sprinter, we could see him dominating the more difficult of the flatter stages of Grand Tours for years to come.
Perhaps even more excitingly, we anticipated an avalanche of victories come the spring classics, and we expected cycling’s greatest races – the Monuments – to tumble one by one as the young Slovakian developed his road craft and tactical nous.
That was nearly three years ago, and we are still waiting.
That may sound harsh, but consider this. Since he won his third stage of the 2012 Tour he has ridden another 69 Grand Tour stages for only one other win. And it is not as if he hasn’t had chances.
From those 69 starts he has placed in the top ten 29 times for 11 second placings and five thirds. When you consider that those 29 top-ten finishes equate to a staggering 42 per cent of all stages that he has raced over that time, that solitary win begins to look like a massive underachievement.
Granted a lot of cyclists would give their left testicle to ‘underachieve’ to that extent – actually I’d probably give up both of mine – but for someone with the raw talent of Sagan, the results sheet is beginning to look frustratingly bereft of big wins.
While he has no trouble racking up victories in other stage races – such as Tirreno-Adriatico, the Tour de Suisse and the big American races – he has been unable to recapture the Grand Tour magic that saw him ride the likes of Fabian Cancellara and Philippe Gilbert off his wheel at the 2012 Tour.
His spring campaigns tell a similar story.
In 2012, prior to his breakthrough Tour performance, he finished fourth at Milan-Sanremo, second at Gent-Wevelgem, fifth at Flanders and third at Amstel Gold. It was a strong assault on the classics, one that anybody, let alone a 22-year-old, could be proud of. The thought of what he could deliver over the next few years was mouth watering, and yet, the results haven’t flowed.
Yes, he has since won Gent Wevelgem and the E3, but apart from that, his spring collection of winner’s jerseys remains sparse and the really big races have eluded him. Second at Milan-Sanremo and Flanders were his best results in 2013, while sixth at Paris-Roubaix and tenth at Sanremo was the pick of his 2014 attack on the Monuments.
At the same age as Sagan is now – and it must be remembered that he is still only 24 – Tom Boonen had already won Paris-Roubaix, Flanders and the world road championship.
Of course Boonen was a freakish rider, and to compare Sagan to him at this stage of his career may be unfair. However the fact remains that Sagan is not cashing in on the opportunities that are coming his way. He is continually falling short when it counts the most – at the finish line.
How many times have we seen him launch himself off the front of a select group with kilometres still remaining to be raced? As entertaining as these attacks are, he rarely, if ever, gets them to stick. Ultimately he is chased down and relegated to the minor placings.
At other times, like at Milan-Sanremo in 2013, we watched as he marked the wrong rider in the final sprint. Yes he beat Cancellara across the line, but both were upstaged by the fast-finishing Gerald Ciolek. The race was his for the taking and he lost out.
He has now become a marked rider himself, but he is not the first to have been watched like a hawk by his opposition. Cancellara and Boonen have faced heavy marking for years. It frustrates them, but they find ways to deal with it. And they win. They win big. They win the races that everybody wants to win.
That’s what Sagan needs to do to take his cycling and his reputation to the next level.
Whether that needs him to change his tactics, put more study into the races or stages that he is targeting, or curb his natural enthusiasm somewhat, he can not be considered a true great of the sport until he starts to collect some of its biggest trophies.
Green jerseys are all well and good, but race wins are what really excite the fans. Not wins from Switzerland or California or Oman either. We are talking Grand Tour stages and Monuments.
Nothing less will satisfy when you are as naturally gifted as Peter Sagan.
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