It’s hard to believe how quickly it’s gone, but this weekend is indeed the final round of the National Rugby Championship.

Also hard to believe is that this is my first week back in the preview chair since Round 2! But I am back, and there is a very relieved editor sitting behind this very webpage.

What we do know, heading into the final round of the competition is that Melbourne Rising have been locked down in top spot for several weeks now, and NSW Country and Brisbane City confirmed their final participation last weekend. Amazingly though, five teams are in the hunt for the final playoff spot.

Now sure, some of those teams have significantly more chance than others, but where there’s life there’s hope. I spent a lot of time yesterday crunching a lot of numbers, and here are the final round machinations for that last playoff spot.

Melbourne Rising (35pts, +194 differential): Safely ensconced in top spot, and can’t be knocked out from there. Have already confirmed they will play their Semi at AAMI Park next Saturday afternoon, October 25.

NSW Country Eagles (23pts, +43): A win over Perth will lock in second spot for the Eagles, with Gosford or possibly Wollongong the likely venues for a home semi. The ARU yesterday confirmed for me as well that this semi would be played next Friday night, October 24.

Brisbane City (21pts, +17): Can finish second and host the Friday night Semi-final at Ballymore by beating Canberra on Saturday evening, if the Eagles then lose to Perth.

If NSW Country win, then City will finish third by beating Canberra – or – finish fourth, by losing to Canberra and with Perth beating NSW Country with a bonus point.

Perth Spirit (16pts, +48): Will confirm a semi-final berth with a win over NSW Country, and could jump to third if Brisbane City lose to Canberra and if they beat NSW Country with a bonus point.

Should they lose to the Eagles, the following scenarios could apply:
• Will stay in fourth spot if North Harbour beat Sydney tonight without a bonus point and if Canberra lose to Brisbane City;
• If North Harbour don’t win with a bonus point and Canberra lose, the Spirit would also lose fourth spot if they lose to NSW Country by 60 points or more; and
• Would also drop out of the top four completely if either North Harbour beat Sydney tonight with a bonus point or Canberra beat Brisbane.

Greater Sydney Rams (16pts, -11): Despite having the bye this weekend, the Rams could still qualify in fourth spot if North Harbour don’t win tonight with a bonus point, and if Canberra lose and if Perth lose to NSW Country by 60 points or more!

Rams’ Director of Rugby, John Manenti, confirmed for me yesterday that his side would wait and watch results before heading back to the training track.

Canberra Vikings (14pts, -7): Regardless of what North Harbour do tonight, the Vikings can finish fourth by beating Brisbane City in the Bledisloe curtain-raiser and if NSW Country beat Perth on Saturday evening.

North Harbour Rays (12pts, -78): The Rays can do it the easy way or the ridiculously hard way. Because of their significantly inferior points differential, the easy way is to simply win with a bonus point over the Stars tonight. Without a bonus point tonight, the hard way is really messy and frankly far-fetched.

To qualify fourth without a bonus point win tonight, North Harbour need all of this to happen:
• To beat Sydney by 68 points or more themselves tonight (which would mean lots of two-point penalty and field goals);
• Canberra to lose;
• Queensland Country to lose, or beat Melbourne without a bonus point, or by less than 42 points; and
• Perth to lose by 60 points or more.

Queensland Country (11pts, -52): Don’t give up hope, Country fans! There’s the slightest of slight chances your mob can still finish in fourth spot. But let’s get the hardest part of the equation out of the way first – it involves beating the previously undefeated and completely dominant Melbourne Rising, with a bonus point, in Melbourne. Lose to the Rising, and it’s all over.

To qualify fourth, Queensland Country need all of this to happen:
• North Harbour to lose, or win without a bonus point and by less than 68 points tonight;
• Canberra to lose;
• Country to then beat Melbourne with a bonus point and by 42 points or more themselves; and
• Perth to then lose by 60 points or more.

Sydney Stars (3pts, -154) : Sorry Stars fans, your season ends tonight.

Sydney Stars v North Harbour Rays @ Leichhardt Oval, Sydney; Thursday 16 October 7:30pm AEDT
It’s the end of the line for at least one NRC team tonight, with the Stars looking to end a tough inaugural NRC season with their first ever win. After suffering their seventh consecutive loss last weekend in Townsville, Chris Malone has kept his backline intact, but tweaked his forwards.

Skipper Pat McCutcheon comes back from a two-week layoff at number 8, while Balmain’s Tipiloma Kaveinga also comes in at blindside. Laurie Weeks is out, with Jeremy Tilse starting at loosehead, while Jake Wainwright makes his starting debut at openside in place of Dave Hickey.

North Harbour have made a few tweaks, too, with try-scoring flanker Kotoni Ale coming back into the starting side, along with Nick Fraser at tighthead. Matt Lucas and Hamish Angus will start in the halves, forcing Josh Holmes to the wing. Tom Matthews also comes in at inside centre.

Stars (1-15): Jeremy Tilse, James Willan, Paddy Ryan , Matthew Philip , Andrew Leota, Tipiloma Kaveinga, Jake Wainwright, Patrick McCutcheon (c), Jake Gordon, Angus Roberts, Jono Sullivan , Jim Stewart, Michael Hodge, James Dargaville, Stuart Dunbar.

Replacements: Tom Coolican, Alasdair King, Tomas Robertson, Byron Hodge , Samuel Quinn, Jock Merriman, Johnathan Fakai, Jack Macklin.

Rays (1-15): Mitch Lewis, Luke Holmes, Nick Fraser, Ed Gower, Greg Peterson (c), Jack Dempsey, Kotoni Ale, Sam Ward, Matt Lucas, Hamish Angus, Josh Holmes, Tom Matthews, Mali Hingano, Sireli, Tagicakibau, David Feltscheer.

Replacements: Dave Porecki, Rory O’Connor, Tobias, Gukibau, James Cunningham, Harry Bergelin, Scott Daruda, Brian Sefanaia, Harry Jones.

TV: Fox Sports 2, 7:30pm AEDT.

Tickets: through Eventopia.

Twitter: #SYDvRAY

Brisbane City v Canberra Vikings @ Suncorp Stadium; Saturday 18 October 4:30pm AEST (5:30pm AEDT)
In a boost for the home side, their three non-playing Wallabies – Will Genia, James Hanson, and Jake Schatz – will all be on deck for this game, which could determine whether they host next week’s Semi Final.

There’s also a reasonable chance Lachie Turner will be named to return too, which would be a massive boost of experience for a young backline.

For Canberra, Henry Speight will make his first steps toward a Wallabies jersey in this match, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t slot straight into the starting side. Seilala Lam will come back into the starting side from suspension, while impressive young openside flanker Rowan Perry gets his first NRC start.

I’ve been really impressed by Perry – he plays and looks very similar to Michael Hooper, but with a better over-the-ball presence, in my humble opinion. Really looking forward to see how he goes against the likes of Michael Gunn and maybe even Liam Gill.

TV: Fox Sports 2, 5:30pm AEDT – great that Fox made the logical decision to cover this extra game, given all their equipment and commentators will already be in place for the Bledisloe Cup Test to follow.

Tickets: still available through Ticketek – gates open at 3:55pm local time, for the 4:30pm NRC kickoff.

Twitter: #BRIvVIK

Melbourne Rising v Queensland Country @ AAMI Park, Melbourne; Saturday 18 October 6:00pm AEDT
My very happy spies in Melbourne are making their plans for next week’s Semi already, but found time to tell me that the Rising will make minimal changes this week from the side that overcame a determined Rams side last weekend.

Sean Hedger will pick his strongest side available, I’m told, which is as good a sign as any that Melbourne plan on going through the NRC undefeated.

Queensland Country might be up against it in terms of making the playoffs, but after they put away the Sydney Stars in Townsville last Saturday, they will be keen to go out on the high.

I’m told that Hayden Hirsimaki has had to withdraw from this game due to a family illness and won’t travel to Melbourne, which in turn means Townsville product Andrew Parker will earn his first NRC start at loosehead. Mitch King, who won Country’s ‘Man Of Steel’ award last week off the bench against the Stars, will also get his first start, coming into the side at blindside.

Country’s backline should be unchanged when the team is named later this morning.

No live stream for this match unfortunately, folks, but remember the NRC site has highlights and full match replays of all games each Monday.

Tickets: Ticketek.

Twitter: #MELvQLD

NSW Country Eagles v Perth Spirit @ Caltex Park, Dubbo; Saturday 18 October, 6:00pm AEDT
Just note the change in time for this game, it had originally been slotted in for a 3:00pm kickoff, but the decision was made in the last week or so just to delay the game, with Dubbo well and truly capable of producing 30+ degree days in October.

The Eagles will have their side out later this morning for their last ‘home’ game of the regular season, but my spies tell me that Stephen Hoiles will be back in the side after an injury layoff.

Promising young opensider Will Miller will also be back after being a late scratching last week in Canberra, but I’m also hearing that plenty of thought is being given to starting Wollongong-based NSW Country Cockatoos backrower, Paulie Tuala. It wouldn’t be a bad move, and Tuala and his pink headgear has had a really strong NRC campaign to date.

With Perth’s participation in the finals still to be confirmed, the big question for this last game was always going to be whether they would stick with policy of playing their Western Force players in home games only. And they tell me they will be sticking to the plan, and the side today will again be “club heavy”, despite what’s at stake.

What this game will do for the club players is give them an idea of the travel the Western Force regularly endure. The Spirit travelling party leave Perth at 7am local time today for Sydney, and then jump in a bus for six-hour trek to Dubbo!

There won’t be a live stream for this match, either.

Tickets available here.

Twitter: #EAGvPER

Greater Sydney Rams have the bye in Round 9.

Also, NRC Round 9 has been designated ‘Mental Health Round’, with competition sponsor Buildcorp working in conjunction with the rugby union Players’ Association (RUPA) and State Unions to raise funds and awareness to encourage young people to talk about mental health issues, as the same issues affect young Australian construction workers, and indeed, rugby players.

Volunteers will be collecting donations and selling Buildcorp and replica Gilbert rugby balls at each match in Round 9, including the curtain raiser between Brisbane City and Canberra and the Bledisloe Cup Test at Suncorp Stadium. Funds can also be donated online, which will go towards The Buildcorp Charitable Fund, assisting Lifeline expand its Online Crisis Support Chat service.

Get out to a game this weekend, and enjoy the final round of the National Rugby Championship.