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2015 NRL predictions: Where to for the bottom eight?

22nd October, 2014
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Aaron Woods wouldn't be out of place in the 1960s. (Photo by Colin Whelan copyright © nrlphotos.com)
Expert
22nd October, 2014
44
4675 Reads

A few weeks ago we looked at how I reckon this year’s finalists will go next year.

This week we are going to examine the sides that had their Mad Mondays early, that had their post season holidays in September. The also rans, the strugglers and the just-not-quite-good-enough sides.

Can any of this mob actually improve on this year or will it be another serving of mediocrity for their suffering fans?

Let’s take a look.

New Zealand Warriors

Last season: 11th
This Season: 9th

What they did well this year:
The Warriors stats appear to suggest that they were pretty good indeed in 2014. Their stats in attack improved out of sight in 2014. They scored 31 more tries in 2014 than in 2013 campaign. Their missed tackles dropped and they conceded the second fewest metres in the NRL.

Their line breaks and tries conceded also fell in comparison to last season.

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What they did poorly:
While they were capable of sensational attack, they only won four games against sides who made the top eight. Only once did they score more than 20 points against those opponents. Their big wins came against the likes of strugglers Canberra and Newcastle. In short, the Warriors were flat track bullies: all flair when the opposition was weak but they failed to challenge the actual contenders.

Their best player:
There’s a couple to choose from here. Shaun Johnson and Konrad Hurrell are the first that come to mind when you think Warriors. However, it is actually Englishman Sam Tomkins who has the stats that can’t be beat. 102 tackle breaks, 13 tries, 102 metres a match, 13 line break assists and 12 try assists made him their most valuable and most consistent.

The next big thing:
A young back by the name of Tuimoala Lolohea looked very dangerous in his few outings this year.

Needs to lift:
The entire pack needs to lift. Only one of them – Jacob Lillyman – averaged over 100 metres a match with the ball. Captain Simon Mannering is an honest toiler but if this side is ever to truly challenge their forwards must lift their effort and intensity about ten notches.

Recruits of Note:
Talking of forwards with intensity and effort, Ryan Hoffman is a great buy. Perhaps he can bring to the Warriors the same sort of work ethic that Kevin Campion did all those years ago. Andrew McFadden may also prove to be a great signing. Loved by his players, he is regarded as a great tactician.

Losses:
Carlos Tuimavave heads off to the Knights and Kevin Locke has signed with the Salford Red Devils.

My Prediction:
Without a forward who really bends the line it is hard to see this side, for all of the talent of their backline, getting beyond week one of the finals. 9th to 11th – again…

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The Parramatta Eels

Last season: Last      
This Season:
10th

What they did well this year:
Parramatta’s attack improved out of sight in 2014. They broke the line 44 more times than in 2013 and scored 40 more tries.

What they did poorly:
While their attack may have improved, the Eels’ defence was still poor. They actually missed more tackles than in 2013 and only conceded 11 fewer line breaks and four fewer tries than their wooden spoon effort in 2013. However, the improved attack lifted them seven places.

Their best player:
Jarryd Hayne. Obviously.

Parramatta fans will still be crying over his departure, and why wouldn’t they? The bloke was at the peak of his powers. His freakish skills of youth had been finely honed. Add his now considerable experience to that and you had a guy who believed he could beat the opposition virtually on his own. His stats this year were superb.

His 182 metres a match was the best in the NRL. His 20 tries were second only to Alex Johnstone. His 133 tackle breaks were second only to Josh Mansour. His 23 line breaks were the best in the NRL. Throw in 10 line break assists, ten try assists and the Dally M Medal.

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The next big thing:
Not only does Tepai Moeroa have a haircut reminiscent of Nathan Hindmarsh, he may also be capable of becoming as good a player as the Eels legend. Watch this space.

Needs to lift:
For all of his skills in attack, if Chris Sandow doesn’t buckle down and improve his tackling he will continue to be a constant target and his sides Achilles heel. Sides can’t carry turnstiles in their top 17 anymore.

Recruits of Note:
A whole heap of honest players and some with serious potential have arrived. None more so than Beau Champion. Everyone knows the bloke has talent, can it finally be truly realised at the Eels? And if Watmough is released by the Sea Eagles (face it Manly supporters, it is possible), he’ll certainly bring some much needed defensive starch to the Eels line.

Losses:
The Eels may well regret letting proven try scorer Ken Sio go. As well, Fui Fui may not do the most minutes and he may miss a few tackles, but he bends the line. If he goes he may well be missed. However, Hayne is a massive loss and one that may lay their 2015 season to waste.

My Prediction:
Without Hayne the Eels will really struggle. Bottom three finish.

The St George Illawarra Dragons

Last season: 14th       
This Season:
11th

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What they did well this year:
While their 2014 results were mediocre, they did improve a lot in attack. They made 33 more line breaks and scored 28 more tries than they did in 2014. However, it is in defence where the Dragons really performed. They committed the second fewest errors, missed the second least tackles and conceded the least penalties.

What they did poorly:
The Dragons big issue in 2013 was their inability to break the line and score tries. The good news for their fans was that improved quite a lot this season. However, they only went from terrible to mediocre and when it came down to it they weren’t competitive against the contenders. Of the 13 matches they played against the sides that made the final top eight they only won two of them.

Their best player:
There are a few to choose from. Trent Merrin and Gareth Widdop both had pretty good seasons, but statistically Josh Dugan was a metre gaining, tackle and line breaking, try scoring machine in 2014.

The next big thing:
Young Eto Nabuli has come from the Panthers with some strong credentials. The Dragon faithful will be hoping that he lives up to them.

Needs to lift:
Joel Thompson. Apparently by deciding not to head back to Canberra he seems to have caused a bit of a salary cap issue that has all manner of players being rumoured to be let go. If this is the case, Thompson needs to really perform in 2015.

Recruits of Note:
See Eto Nabuli above.

Losses:
Young Jack bird going to Cronulla is a loss. However, the idea that Brett Morris, Jason Nightingale and even Trent Merrin might be lost to the club next season is horrific. Hopefully for their fans, those rumours don’t become reality.

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My Prediction:
Mary McGregor apparently wants to recreate the Dragons, possibly in the same manner that Ivan Cleary has recreated the Panthers. Although Gareth Widdop has really done well for the Red V, there is still a distinct lack of attacking power in the side. Given that they may lose two of their best attacking weapons in Morris and Nightingale, it may get worse. Somewhere between 11th and 14th.

The Newcastle Knights

Last season: 7th         
This Season:
12th

What they did well this year:
They conceded the third least penalties and made the least errors in the NRL. However, what they really did well was stick together in the face of turmoil and tragedy.

The horror of Alex McKinnon’s neck breaking in round three and Nathan Tinkler walking away from the club had the beginning of the season in disarray. In their first 13 games they won only two games; against lowly Cronulla and The Raiders. However, the Novocastrians are made of strong stuff. In their last 11 games they won eight to finish just two games outside the eight.

What they did poorly:
Newcastle’s defence could sometimes be poor. They missed the fifth most tackles in 2014 and the sixth most line breaks. However, their worst attribute was their lack of teeth in attack. They scored the fifth least tries of any side in 2014.

Their best player:
Beau Scott had a great year, as evidenced by his Dally M award for best second rower. However, Joey Leilua had a great season. Not only did he average 111 metres a game, score 11 tries and broke 85 tackles. He also assisted 11 line breaks and 10 tries.

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The next big thing:
Sione Matautia averaged 140 metres a match and scored seven tries in just seven games.

Needs to lift:
If Newcastle are to rise then Jarrod Mullen must move his game up a gear. In his 18 games in 2014 he only assisted three line breaks and eight tries.

Recruits of Note:
Big Tariq Sims has arrived from the Cowboys to join his brother Korbin in Newcastle. A formidable impact player, Sims could give the Knights the mongrel they need up front.

Losses:
Adam Cuthbertson and Travis Waddell are probably the most notable departures from the Knights. However, it seems certain that fullback Darius Boyd will also leave the club.

My Prediction:
The Knights finished the season on a high note and have a backline capable of superb attack. The question is whether their forward pack can match them. If so, the Knights will almost certainly make the eight. However, I think they’ll finish somewhere from 9th to 12th.

The Wests Tigers

Last season: 15th      
This Season:
13th

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What they did well this year:
On occasion the Wests Tigers could really click and blow sides away. Early in the season the Wests Tigers tackle break statistics were great. However, they fell away badly.

What they really did well was tear themselves apart. The leaks that led to the undermining of now ex coach Mick Potter and the demonisation of Robbie Farah had the effect of completely destroying what had been a relatively promising season – at least in comparison to 2013.

What they did poorly:
Pretty much everything. In particular they missed the second most tackles and conceded the most line breaks of any side in 2014. They conceded the third most tries and only two other sides – Cronulla and the Titans – broke the line less than the Wests Tigers.

Their best player:
James Tedesco, Luke Brooks, Pat Richards and Robbie Farah all have a claim to this title in 2014. However, the unkempt front rower Aaron Woods averaged 130 metres a game and 31 tackles and for mine was their best.

The next big thing:
Hard to split James Tedesco, Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses. All show incredible promise and skill.

Needs to lift:
Adam Blair is a big unit who is capable of really bending the line. However, in 2014 he averaged under 80 metres a game and only broke 13 tackles.

Recruits of Note:
None really.

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Losses:
Blake Austin and Marika Koroibete are probably their worst losses.

My Prediction:
Assuming they don’t suffer too badly from injuries I think the Wests Tigers have potential to challenge for the eight. However, they really do cop a lot of injuries. Bottom four.

The Gold Coast Titans

Last season: 9th        
This Season:
14th

What they did well this year:
Nothing. At best the Titans were mediocre where the stats were concerned. Having started the season with six wins from their first eight games, they fell away badly to win only three of their remaining 16 games.

Their extra time win over the Bulldogs did allow them to keep hold of third last spot and not be leapfrogged by the Raiders.

What they did poorly:
Pretty much everything. They made the least line breaks and the least tackle breaks in 2014. They also scored the second least tries. They also made the second most errors and missed the most tackles.

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Their best player:
It’s between Greg Bird and his 116 metres, 35 tackle breaks and 23 tackles and Dave Taylor and his 130 metres a match and seven tries.

The next big thing:
Paul Carter may have gotten himself into a bit of trouble this season off the field, but he impressed with a number of very strong performances. He was able to play hooker, second row and lock when required and he plays with vigour.

Needs to lift:
William Zillman has undoubted talent but his meagre two tries this season speaks of a potential unrealised. It is time for him to step up.

Recruits of Note:
Lachlan Burr has some raps of him but it has been fairly quiet recruitment wise for the Titans.

Losses:
Quite a few. They’ve been really hurt by the retirements of Luke Bailey, Ashley Harrison and Mark Minichiello. Albert Kelly’s departure may also hurt the Titans.

My Prediction:
Neil Henry is right up against it. His club has been heavily fined for breaking the salary cap and the playing roster is threadbare. I can’t see them finishing out of the bottom four.

Canberra Raiders

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Last season: 13th         
This Season:
15th

What they did well this year:
Virtually nothing at all. They conceded the second fewest penalties in the NRL this year – for all the good it did them. They also finished the season on a bright note, winning the last three matches.

What they did poorly:
Virtually everything. The better question for the Green Machine is what wasn’t appalling. They were only mediocre for missed tackles and errors.

Their best player:
They had a few candidates here. Anthony Milford and Paul Vaughn were pretty good all year but there is little doubt that Jarrod Croker was the best player in lime green this year. 95 metres a game, 64 tackle breaks, 13 line breaks, five try assists and 18 tries were accompanied by his growing stature as a team leader.

The next big thing:
Jack Wighton just needs his forwards to give him a bit more space and his halves to give him a bit better service and he is going to cut his opponents up. Comparisons have been made to a young Laurie Daley circa 1988-89. It isn’t a bad comparison.

Needs to lift:
Mitch Cornish had a mixed season in 2014 but if his club is to rise again the boy from Goulburn needs to live up to his potential.

Recruits of Note:
After having such a bad time with recruiting mid season the Raiders actually did alright. Sisa Waqa was a great get for the wing. Blake Austin may be the missing piece of the puzzle at 5/8. Iosia Soliola brings his barnstorming game from Super League champs St Helens and Josh Hodgson arrives from Hull KR with big wraps on both his play and leadership.

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Losses:
Milford obviously headlines here. For all his suspect defence and shakiness under the high ball, the bloke can break the line and run like the wind blows. His defection to the Broncos demonstrates the massive and seemingly unfettered power the Queenslanders can wield in the player market.

My Prediction:
The 2013-14 seasons were the first time since 1985-86 that the Raiders had failed to make the finals in consecutive years. On paper they have a side capable of great things. However, as demonstrated this year, they are just as likely to be routed. An injury free season, mixed with good form from their recruits, may see them challenge for a finals place. However, they may just as well struggle. Somewhere between 7th to 16th.

Cronulla Sharks

Last season: 5th         
This Season:
16th

What they did well this year:
Would you believe that the Sharks missed the third fewest tackles in 2014?! Problem was that too many of those turned into tries due to poor scrambling defence. Apart from that they were abysmal in pretty much every regard.

What they did poorly:
They conceded the most metres on average per game of any side. They conceded the third most line breaks and second most tries. They also made the second least line breaks and third fewest tackle breaks.

Their best player:
While Gallen and Andrew Fifita are probably the biggest impact players at the Sharks, they only played 21 games between them in 2014. The player who kept putting in was Michael Gordon. He played all 24 matches for 130 metres a game, six tries, 82 tackle breaks, 12 line breaks, eight line break assists and eight try assists.

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The next big thing:
Ricky Luetele really showed a bit when given half a chance this year. If his forwards can lay a decent platform and he get early ball he could make his opposite numbers look second rate.

Needs to lift:
Luke Lewis needs to get on the park. His eight games in 2014 weren’t enough. However, it is Wade Graham who really needs to lift. His raw potential has never translated into well cooked form. Too many errors and not enough impact.

Recruits of Note:
Michael Ennis may provide vital leadership and calm to the Sharks. If the rumours are true – and they eventuate – Ben Barba could be just what the Sharks need at 5/8 to make them dangerous in attack while Jeff Robson guides the team around.

Losses:
Depending on which way you look at it Todd Carney is either a very bad loss or a very good one. While there is no doubting his ability, his propensity for making dreadful off field decisions and not learning from mistakes made him a ticking time bomb.

My Prediction:
Like the Raiders, if they get a good run with injuries they actually have some pretty good cattle. However, if things don’t go right it could be another year of horror for the boys from the Shire. I reckon they are due for a good season. 6th to 8th.

My predicted 2015 final ladder

  1. Sydney Roosters
  2. Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
  3. North Queensland Cowboys
  4. South Sydney Rabbitohs
  5. Brisbane Broncos
  6. Penrith Panthers
  7. Melbourne Storm
  8. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
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  9. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
  10. New Zealand Warriors
  11. Canberra Raiders
  12. Newcastle Knights
  13. Wests Tigers
  14. St George Illawarra Dragons
  15. Parramatta Eels
  16. Gold Coast Titans
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