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Who will draw well for the 2014 Melbourne Cup That is the million dollar question this Saturday as the field and the barriers are decided for the race that stops a nation.
Drawing the right barrier is vital for potential success on Tuesday 4th November in Australia’s richest horse race. Getting the wrong barrier makes the dream of winning the Melbourne Cup that much harder.
FULL LIST OF ACCEPTANCES AND LATEST NEWS ON THE 2014 MELBOURNE CUP HERE
So how hard is it to win the Melbourne Cup from a poor barrier position. Stats indicate that the best place to win the Melbourne Cup is in the middle barriers.
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In 56 barrier draws, since it began in 1958, 22 winners have come from barriers 9-16. That is a strike rate of around 40 per cent.
From the inside – and outside – barriers, the strike rate is the same. The inside and outside have won 17 races each at a strike rate of 30 percent.
While outside barriers have had a good record overall, the last winner to win from between barriers 17 and 24 was Shocking in 2009.
In this millennium, only two winners have won from those barriers, with Brew the other horse to win from the outside in 2000.
In the last 14 years, since that famous win by Brew and Kerrin McEvoy, 8 winners have come from the middle, and four have come from the inside.
With the Melbourne Cup field getting better and better each year, the barrier draw becomes more important, as trainers and jockeys try to gain every advantage possible for the race.
Saturday will be a big day for the field of the Cup. Here is what you need to know about the draw on Saturday.
Key Barrier Draw information
Venue: Flemington Race Course, Victoria, Australia
Horses involved: 24
Barrier Numbers: 24
Most successful Barrier: 11 (6 winners)
Barrier number of last year’s winner: 5 (Fiorente)
Start time:
7:00pm Saturday Night
TV Schedule:
Full coverage of the Barrier Draw will be on TVN from 7:00pm – 8:00pm AEDT.
Current odds for the 2014 Melbourne Cup
Favourite: Admire Rakti – 4.80
Lucia Valentina – 7.00
Protectionist – 7.50
Fawkner – 8.00
Mutual Regard – 10.00
Red Cadeaux – 17.00
Signoff – 17.00
Araldo – 19.00
Who Shot Thebarman – 21.00
Willing Foe – 21.00
Biggest storylines of the Barrier Draw to watch for:
Who will draw barrier 5?
Barrier 5 has been the third most successful starting spot for the Melbourne Cup with 5 winners over the last 56 years. In recent times it has provided the winner of the 2012 and 2013 race.
That’s right; this barrier has been gold for the last two years for the horses who have started here. In 2012, Green Moon shocked the field by winning from this spot.
Last year Gai Waterhouse won her first Melbourne Cup when Fiorente won from this spot. Can 2014 make it 3 from 3?
Whoever draws this spot will have all the pressure of delivering again from this barrier.
Only four winners since 1958 – including Green Moon and Fiorente – have won from barrier 5. The other two were Vintage Crop (1993) and Rain Lover (1969).
Nightmarch (1929), Old Rowley (1940) and Wodalla (1953) all won from position 5 as well before the barriers were used in the Melbourne Cup.
Who will draw barrier 11?
Barrier 11 has been the most successful barrier at the Melbourne Cup producing 6 winners since 1958. The most recent was Americain in 2010.
Others to win from this barrier include Piping Lane (1972), Hyperno (1979), Black Knight (1984), Tawrrific (1989) and Ethereal (2001).
Peter Pan (1932) and Hiraji (1947) also won from position 11 before the barriers were used.
Regardless of the history of barrier 11 the horse that will start from here will be in a strong position to take out the Cup.
It is in the middle and it is in a prime position for a horse and jockey to move in the early stages of the race.
Who will draw the hoodoo barriers of 12 and 18?
On the other side of the ledger, barriers 12 and 18 are ones to avoid for jockeys and trainers at the Melbourne Cup. No horse has ever won a Melbourne Cup when it has been drawn in barriers 12 or 18.
Only White Nose – who won in 1932 – has won from position 12 before barriers were installed.
No horse has ever won from position or barrier 18 in the Cup.
Red Cadeaux, who finished in eighth in 2012, was the best placed finisher for a horse starting from barrier 18 in the last nine years.
In those last nine years the average finishing position for a horse starting from barrier 18 is 14th
It is the hoodoo barrier to draw, and whoever does draw it, will be at long odds to win the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.
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