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Cup week. The best seven days in Australian racing without question, and it kicks off this Saturday at the home of racing in this country, Flemington.
In what is regarded by many as the best race day of the year, it doesn’t get much better than nine races, four Group ls and five other Group races.
The feature race is the $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m), where Gai Waterhouse trains the well fancied Hampton Court, and a win would ease the pain of losing her Melbourne Cup runner, The Offer, who pulled out of the race that stops a nation earlier in the week.
Hampton Court does look the obvious way to go. He has the Group l form on the board, winning the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick last time out, beating home First Seal, who is a star, and Sweynesse, who ran unbelievably well last week in the Cox Plate.
He worked earlier in the week and looked very good, as he did last week at Moonee Valley. 2500m at Flemington should be relished by him and I will be a touch surprised if he doesn’t greet the judge first.
Preferment worked home powerfully in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last week behind Nozomi, narrowly losing in a close photo finish. He has real upside, but is still a maiden, and a maiden hasn’t won the Derby in the last 30 years, so history is against him. In saying that, take away the top tip and this isn’t the strongest Derby we will see.
Bondeiger really caught the eye last week in the Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase (2040m), making up a stack of ground from the back to run seventh to Moonovermanhattan, beaten just under four lengths. But he had to duck and weave on the turn and was eased down the final 50m so he should have finished closer.
James Winks, the rider, said after the race that this horse will win the Derby off that run, so taking that in, as well as racing on his home track, I give him a serious chance.
Selections
Hampton Court (1) clearly on top, ahead of Preferment (13), Bondeiger (9) and Light Up Manhattan (8).
A star-studded field has been assembled for the Longines Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). He’s Your Man’s form this Spring has been very good, and his Epsom Handicap (1600m) win was unbelievable given he lost all momentum 1200m out and nearly came crashing. But the ‘Magic Man’, Joao Moreira, got the horse balanced up again, had beautiful three wide cover, peeled out, lunged and nabbed Royal Descent.
The key with this horse is that he has an electric turn of foot, but on the occasions he has showed that pace he has carried less weight, and the depth of horse he has raced against hasn’t been as strong as what he faces here. So it’ll be intriguing to see how he measures up and whether or not he can mix it with the best of the best. But the advantage is that he didn’t run in the Cox Plate and has fresh legs.
It was hard to make excuses for other runners in the Cox Plate last week given the run Adelaide had, but missing the start cost Happy Trails dearly in the race. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but had he jumped cleanly, he would have positioned much closer. What could have been perhaps. But he backs up here and loves the Flemington 2000m.
It was hard to believe that Rising Romance lost in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) after the ride she received from Macca, but the mare just couldn’t fend off the unbelievable finish of Admire Rakti. Back to 2000m now, has the weight pull and that little bit of give in the track will be perfect for her.
Selections
He’s Your Man (8) to win, ahead of Happy Trails (2), Rising Romance (15) and Foreteller (3).
The Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) shapes up to be one of the best editions of this race we will ever see. I’m taking on the Caulfield Guineas-Thousand Guineas runners here, because history says unless you’re a once-in-a-generation horse, aka Weekend Hussler, then you can’t come back from the mile to 1200m and win.
Taking that in, I’ll be putting the filly Earthquake on top. The jury was out on her after two defeats to kick off her Spring, but she bounced back to form with a soft win in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m), a race that Headway used to salute in this race in 2009. Trained on the track, so she would have numerous gallops down the straight, and given she hangs a bit, I think the one straight run will really suit her.
Rubick has been set for this race since the day he lost in the Blue Diamond by the top tip. He resumed against the older horses in the Schillaci Stakes (1000m) and led all the way to record a top win, and the form has stood up with the likes of Platelet and Iconic running rippers in the Manikato. Given this has been his target for some time, I am expecting him to be 150 per cent wound up and ready to rock and roll.
A combination of track bias and a great steer by Steve Baster got Eloping home two back in the Champagne Stakes (1200m), showing good speed throughout the 1200m. She then went to the Blue Sapphire (1200m) at Caulfield and just kept finding despite looking gone on the turn, and ended up drawing clear of her rivals. She is an absolute beauty, and while she probably lacks the class to win, she is very tough, and that is something that a few of these don’t have.
Selections
Earthquake (14) in a ripping race, to beat Rubick (5), Eloping (15) and Scissor Kick (3).
The Myer Classic (1600m) is such an interesting race on paper. Will Sweet Idea run the mile? Will Catkins bounce back to her best? I’m saying no to both of those questions and sticking very solid with Politeness.
She has had no luck in three runs this Spring, whether it’s been running wide with no cover, getting too far or a slow tempo, which is what happened last time out in the Tristarc Stakes (1400m) where Sweet Idea crawled them in front and gave nothing from the back a chance to win. More speed engaged here, so I doubt Sweet Idea will run the mile, whereas Politeness gives the impression she will handle it.
Catkins has been off her game since winning first up in the Sheraco Stakes (1200m). She has suffered two defeats since, firstly thanks to Arabian Gold in the Golden Pendant (1400m) and then in the Tristarc where she had every chance. The key to her here is that the track will have some give in it, and that could be her saving grace for Group l glory, because there is no other mare more deserving of a major than this grey.
One mare that will definitely be strong at the end of 1600m is May’s Dream. Her three runs this Spring have been outstanding, in particular her Tristarc effort. She was wide the whole way with no cover for the entire trip, was carted near the centre of the track on the turn, and despite wanting to lay in, she still attacked the line with purpose when she really had no right given how the race was run. Fast run mile will be right up her alley and loves some cut out of the track.
Selections
Politeness (14) to win, over Catkins (2), May’s Dream (4) and Neena Rock (16).
In other races on the card
. Azkadellia should bolt home in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m).
. Fenway could stamp herself as the knockout Oaks contender by winning the Wakeful Stakes (2000m).
. Hucklebuck looks extremely hard to beat in the Yellowglen Stakes (1400m).
. I am tipping the fairytale to come true with La Amistad winning the Lexus Stakes (2500m) and run in the Melbourne Cup.
. Deep Field is your multi-anchor in the TAB.com.au Stakes (1200m).
Note: All Cerise, a mare I’ve been talking up this Spring, looks to have the sixth at Rosehill at her mercy.
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