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Oh, how things have changed since my last article.
The Wallabies nearly pulled off a miraculous victory in Bledisloe 3, we have a new national coach and Kurtley Beale – depending on your state allegiance – either got off with a slap on the wrist or got slammed with an outrageous penalty.
Once again, I’d like to turn everyone’s attention away from the controversy and negative press and focus on what is sure to be another fascinating season of Super Rugby.
Originally I was planning to write about the Waratahs this week, but I have grown tired about reading about NSW rugby these past few weeks, so instead I’ll run my eye over the men from the nation’s capital.
2014 recap
When Stephen Larkham looks back on his first year as a head coach I think he will neither be disappointed nor completely happy. It’s hard to be critical of any season in which you make the finals, however the level of talent in this squad sometimes makes it hard to feel like they didn’t underachieve.
The early loss of their best player in David Pocock was massive, though it did pave the way for Jarrad Butler to have an outstanding season. Amongst the backs, Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani continued their strong form from their own breakout years in 2013, while Jesse Mogg and Christian Lealiifano struggled to climb back up the mountain.
Mogg in particular was disappointing, showing wildly inconsistent form and poor decision making that was a far cry from the talent that made him one of the shining lights of Australian rugby only 12 months earlier.
In the pack, Scott Sio continued his eye-catching development while the emergence of Sam Carter gave them an added element of physical presence. Scott Fardy struggled throughout the campaign to re-attain his extraordinary 2013 form, however his game did build throughout the year, culminating in an impressive end to the Rugby Championship.
Henry Speight continued to be one of the most exciting backs in the entire Super Rugby and will surely play many Tests for the men in gold over the next several years.
Recruitment
News on the recruitment front has been light so far, so hopefully some of the Brumbies fans will be able to provide some information on emerging talent in the comments section below. There certainly is a need for some new blood among the playing ranks, as the squad has suffered three big losses this off-season.
Ben Mowen’s decision to pack his bags and head to greener, more European pastures will leave a massive leadership void in the side. While Stephen Moore will likely step into the captaincy role, it’s Mowen’s other key role that will perhaps be harder to fill – leading the lineout.
Under Mowen’s leadership, the Brumbies lineout was often one of the strongest in the competition, and they were particularly strong on the defensive set piece. If Sam Carter wishes to maximise his Wallabies career, he will likely need to take on a greater responsibility and make himself the key target in the Brumbies lineout.
The second void among the playing ranks is due to Pat McCabe’s untimely injury-induced retirement. The gentlemen’s gentleman, McCabe’s tireless efforts and body-sacrificing line running will be impossible to replace.
Larkham will be hoping that Joe Tomane can step up and take some of the burden of grinding out yardage over the game line, to avoid overloading the team’s reliance on Kuridrani.
Finally, Clyde Rathbone’s retirement means that the Brumbies backline loses a mountain of experience and an extremely valuable mentor. With the ever-increasing amount of Wallabies caps among the backline this can be covered to some extent – but the luxury of having a 26-Test Wallaby on the bench is something that they will surely miss.
Likely 2015 team
1) Scott Sio (probably the second best prop in the country)
2) Stephen Moore (over the past few years he’s been one of Australia’s few contenders for a World 15)
3) Ben Alexander (‘The Hinge’. As often as he is decried, the man still has 69 Test caps to his name)
4) Sam Carter (current Wallaby)
5) Scott Fardy (extremely high workrate over the ball)
6) Jarrad Butler (played out of his skin in 2014)
7) David Pocock (the best openside flanker in the country)
8) Fotu Auelua (a man mountain – strong runs, strong tackles)
9) Nic White (clean passing game, booming kick)
10) Matt Toomua (strong defender, arguably the best game manager of any of the Australian 10s)
11) Joe Tomane (big, strong, fast)
12) Christian Lealiifano (dynamic running game and solid playmaking skills – potentially the Wallabies 12 for the Rugby World Cup)
13) Tevita Kuridrani (one of the few shining lights from the current Test season)
14) Henry Speight (big, stronger, faster)
15) Jesse Mogg (massive kicking game, lightning fast)
The Brumbies have plenty of depth at hooker where Siliva Siliva and Josh Mann-Rea both acquitted themselves with aplomb last season. Look for Allan Alaalatoa to put massive pressure on ‘The Hinge’ as the season wears on, as I’m told he is a player with enormous potential.
Mogg will need to replicate his form from 2013 to keep Robbie Coleman out of the 15 jersey, but hopefully the pressure will be good for his game. Additionally, Fardy may move into the backrow depending on further recruitment – the UC Vikings had a couple of handy locks running around the paddock during the NRC who could potentially push for a spot.
The key
The halves. For all of their many strengths, Toomua and White can at times be poor decision makers, and have a tendency to resort to kicking the ball away far too often when under pressure.
With a new Wallabies coach to impress in a World Cup year, Toomua will be keen to showcase his attacking prowess, and his ability (or inability) to unlock opportunities for his potent outside men will go along way to deciding the Brumbies’ fate in 2015.
Most important player
This is a difficult one. There is certainly an argument to be made that Pocock is the key, however the past two seasons have shown that the team can still win without him.
Equally, one could suggest that Toomua and Lealiifano are both integral to the team’s ability to score points. However, their ability to cover each other’s position, as well as the presence of the ever impressive Robbie Coleman on the bench, means that there is a plan B should either man go down with a season ending injury in the first game of the year.
I am even inclined to offer Mogg as a suggestion, as when in-form he has the ability to make such a huge difference. A fullback who can play like a flyhalf as well as peel off massive amounts of territory with his boot is like gold to a rugby team. But before he can be regarded as his team’s kingpin, Jesse needs to demonstrate an ability to turn up week in, week out – and ideally put on 10 kilograms of muscle.
So that leaves me with Kuridrani, purely on the grounds that he is the hardest man to replace should they lose him. With McCabe’s retirement, the Canberra backline lacks the additional midfield battering ram to take the emphasis off Kuridrani, meaning they will need him to have a big season in 2015 if they are to again make a push for the finals.
The big question
Can Pocock come back from consecutive knee reconstructions? God I hope so. At the peak of his powers Bam Bam was an absolute weapon on the rugby field. For all the guile and smarts that George Smith had, a fit Pocock matches him with pure power and work rate.
I’m from the half of the Australian rugby community that believes that the Wallabies need this man if they are to have any chance at next year’s Rugby World Cup.
The emergence of Jarrad Butler somewhat lessens the Brumbies’ reliance on Pocock’s continued good health, but if he can stay on the field for even the majority of the year they are going to be a significantly better side.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.