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THE OUTSIDER: Will the Son shine second time around?

30th October, 2014
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Sonny Bill Williams proved himself when it counted. AAP Image/AFP, William West
Expert
30th October, 2014
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Former All Blacks coach Laurie Mains thinks he’s a mercenary. To most of the Australian news media, he’s a walking headline.

In rugby circles, the consensus seems to be that he’s one hell of an athlete, although the jury remains out as to whether he will ever develop the instincts to be a top echelon player.

Which leads to the question, will Sonny Bill Williams be good enough even to make New Zealand’s 30-man Rugby World Cup squad?

The ‘second coming’ begins this weekend, in the not especially intimidating surroundings of Soldier Field in Chicago, as the All Blacks take on the United States on their way to Europe for a three-Test tour.

Sonny Bill Williams was always a shoo in to go on that tour – if he was going to be ready for next year’s tournament after two years playing rugby league, it was imperative that the Kiwis got him up to speed as quickly as they could – but a lot has changed since he last ran around.

While they had great depth then, the All Blacks have even more now, and that’s going to put the squeeze on who makes the cut, and who doesn’t, when the World Cup squad calculations are made.
So too is the change in IRB regulations, which has increased match day squads to 23 players, including four specialist props.

As the overall size of Rugby World Cup squads hasn’t increased from 30 yet, as far as I know (there is nothing on the tournament’s official website to indicate that it has), this means that teams may have to make a cut elsewhere, in order to accommodate five props within their travelling party.

To just travel with four, who would all be required to stay fit and healthy for every game, is a risk that I doubt anyone would be prepared to take.

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A look back at the previous two All Black World Cup squads current coach Steve Hansen has been associated with illustrates the point. In both 2007 and 20011, New Zealand went with three specialist halfbacks and three specialist hookers, largely because of the rules regarding replacements.

They dictate a minimum 48 hours before the new player can become involved – which has the potential to leave you in the cactus if you don’t have that additional specialist cover and then lose either a halfback or a hooker within two days or less of a game.

This happened to the Wallabies during the pool game against Ireland at the last tournament when Stephen Moore was ruled out just before kick off. Australia had cover with three hookers in that squad.

It seems inconceivable that Hansen won’t go that way again too, which instantly whittles down other squad options.

In both 2007 and 2011, the New Zealand squad had a 16-forward, 14-back split. With the extra prop taking up another space, Hansen will probably have to trim one back, which effectively only leaves 10 places up for grabs, given the inclusion of three halfbacks.

This means versatility will become key, which will make it even harder for Williams, as most of the backs New Zealand have cover multiple positions, and he was primarily an inside centre in his rugby baptism.

Assuming Israel Dagg and Ben Smith are the fullbacks, with Smith, Cory Jane and Julian Savea covering the wings, that’s four places gone, leaving most likely three each for the first-five-eighths as the Kiwis call them, and the centres.

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It seems unlikely they won’t take three 10s given the importance of the role, and the fact that they experienced major injury trouble in the position last time around. That New Zealand included three players in the position at each of the last two tournaments offers a pointer. The fact that Dan Carter can also slot in comfortably at inside centre makes this combination seem likely.

Which all leaves Williams competing for one of three midfield spots up against the established midfield partnership of Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith, alongside the Highlanders’ exciting new boy Malakai Fekitoa, and the Crusaders’ ‘Mr Dependable’ Ryan Crotty.

Nonu is a big game player, and his midfield combination with the backline steadier, Conrad Smith is the most experienced in All Black Test history, which makes it seem inconceivable that they will leave either behind.

That means Williams is head-to-head with Ryan Crotty and Malakai Fekitoa for one spot, with the latter the most likely candidate to push the two-time league premiership winner onto the outer.

Although he has much to learn as an inside centre, and got caught defensively a couple of times in the recent Brisbane Bledisloe, Fekitoa was new to the position, and still managed to provide an x-factor, scoring the winning try in that game.

The fact he was even tried at 12 showed Hansen wants to develop him as an option for both midfield positions with an eye on the World Cup.

Fekitoa’s main go is as an outside centre though, where the additional time and space, coupled with his explosive power, makes him a real handful, as he showed playing with the Highlanders. This year provided both his first full Super Rugby season and his maiden Test campaign.

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He is only going to get better, much better.

The fact that he is also more of an outside centre could also come into play. If everyone above is available, it is at outside centre that the additional midfield cover will be needed, especially after Ben Smith was tried there previously without really convincing.

So for all of the hype associated with his return, Sonny Bill Williams is up against it. When he was re-signed by the New Zealand Rugby Union, Fekitoa wasn’t even on the radar. Now he is big time!

Of course injuries can – and usually do – change the selection dynamics, but Crotty is still lurking in the background too, so Williams would still be no certainty even if one of Nonu, Smith or Fekitoa fell by the wayside.

This tour is going to be important for him, but next year’s Super Rugby even more so. He will need to prove that not only can he get up to speed with the game quickly, but also that he can further develop his instincts for it, which were not always entirely convincing, even at the back end of his first time around.

Sonny Bill Williams is an amazing athlete, as his sporting history shows, and it was clear to see the impact the coaching of Wayne Smith had on his rugby as his time in the code developed. But even by the end, he was still prone to misreads defensively, would still throw in the odd shoulder charge (he got a yellow card in the Rugby World Cup semi-final for one), and was easy prey at times for alert flankers due to ill-judged off-loads in contact.

In his favour is that he will be playing outside of Aaron Cruden at the Chiefs.

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The pair formed a settled combination when the side won the title in 2012, although despite the plaudits he received at the time, the level of Williams’s influence had to be measured by the fact the Chiefs won the title again the following year, without him.

The presence of Liam Messam, his closest mate in rugby, at the Chiefs will also help. As will Smith, whom I’ve heard will now be with both the Chiefs and the All Blacks next year, after it initially looked like he would turn the national team down.

Smith’s presence around the All Black selection table will be advantageous for Williams, especially if what is shaping as a pretty strong Chiefs squad goes deep into the competition again. He might want to keep his manager in check though.

While no one can doubt the skill Khoder Nasser shows in the area of promoting his athletes, via the use of favourable media, the All Black hierarchy will be wary of the potential circus that accompanies the Sonny Bill show.

The last thing the All Blacks will want during the Rugby World Cup is being undermined in the press by an external party, purely because Nasser’s main man isn’t front and centre on the game’s biggest stage.

The All Blacks are not looking for marketability and media profile, they want winners. Sonny Bill has certainly been that, almost everywhere he has gone, but continuing the trend during his second coming in rugby could be his biggest challenge of all.

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