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The Victoria Derby (2500m, set weights, Group 1) is one of Australia’s oldest and most prestigious races. A big field has been assembled, so join us for all the build up to the 3:45pm race.
There are generally four key lead-up races to the Derby: the Caulfield Classic (formerly Norman Robinson), the Spring Champion Stakes, the Geelong Classic and the Vase at Moonee Valley, which has become the best guide in recent times.
I would expect bolter The Might Jrod to lead here from the wide barrier, but with a short run to the first turn, expect Gouldian, Royal Standing, Nozomi, Moonovermanhattan and Lotion to all settle forward.
The clear favourite is the regally-bred Hampton Court, who recorded quick time in a strong Spring Champion Stakes. The leaders went extremely quickly, but the colt was clearly the best stayer. In behind him were First Seal and Sweynesse, who are both Group 1 class.
Moonovermanhattan took out the Vase last week in strong fashion after sitting on the speed. Atmosphere was excellent in the same race and the 2500m is right up his alley, along with Bondeiger, who won well at Caulfield over the carnival. Royal Standing battled on well (best wet tracker if it rains heavily) and San Padre is better suited at Flemington.
The Caulfield Classic was dominated by the fillies, however Firehouse Rock looked the winner at the top of the straight before stargazing. The winkers going on should help correct this issue.
Magicool was only fair, but go on his previous win at Flemington, where he showed a good turn of foot. Light Up Manhattan is a model of consistency and the stable have always had a huge opinion of him. Cuban Fighter was also a sneaky run in an on-pace dominated affair.
Nozomi toughed it out to win at Geelong, while Preferment looked gone at the 800m, before Oliver switched the whip to the left and rocketed home in the last 100m.
Gouldian was scratched last week at Moonee Valley after collecting his maiden at Warwick Farm. His form ties in well around Preferment and he would not be running if they stable weren’t happy with him.
This is a tricky race to line up, but it is too difficult to ignore Hampton Court. The Caulfield Classic looks the best lead up to me, but look for Fontein Ruby to cement the form in the Wakeful earlier today.
Tips:
1. Hampton Court 2. Firehouse Rock 3. Magicool 4. Moonovermanhattan
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