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The Roar

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What is wrong with the NFC South?

Expert
3rd November, 2014
2

The NFL is full of surprises. At the start of every season fans and experts think they have a fair idea of who is going to be good and who is going to be bad.

These opinions, if formed without bias, are generally derived from previous form, major changes in talent on the roster and coaching staff or the irrefutable and undeniable reality that some teams are destined to win more than they lose and vice versa.

I wrote an article recently suggesting the Oakland Raiders would go 0-16 in 2014 due mainly to their roster, scheduling, coaching and front office.

Among the comments was a general feeling that the boys in silver and black would be atrociously bad until the franchise went through a major overhaul. Whereas, a team like the Patriots, a well managed, well coached franchise, are destined to be competitive every season for the foreseeable future.

The elite and the appalling aside, there are about 24 other teams each season that could easily go either way. These are the teams that make the NFL interesting. They provide the shocks and the upsets. Like the AFC North being the best division in football and the NFC South the worst.

Firstly, to the AFC North, the only division through eight games where all four teams have a winning record.

You have to feel for the surprisingly good 5-3 Cleveland Browns. It is the first season since 2007, and before that 2002, that the Browns have played well enough to be relevant and, unfortunately, so has the rest of their division.

The Bengals have been up and down this season, but still lead the division at 5-2-1, while the red hot Steelers have raced to a 6-3 record behind the arm of Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens led the division at 5-2 in the middle of October, but two straight division losses have seen them fall to fourth overall.

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It’s going to be a tight race to the finish and the Browns will likely have to hope for a wildcard spot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

While 5-3 is only good enough for third in the AFC North, it would mean the outright division lead in the lowly NFC South.

In 2010, the division produced three teams with 10 or more wins. This season it looks like 7-9 might clinch a playoff spot. Through nine weeks, the Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers and Panthers have combined for 10 wins and a tie. It is the only division without a team over .500 and the teams hold four of the bottom five spots in terms of defensive efficiency across the NFL.

The Saints provided some much needed clarity on Thursday Night Football, beating the Panthers 28-10 in a pivotal division match-up. But still a few important questions remain unanswered.

How did the NFC South become so mundane and mediocre? And which team is going to limp their way to a division title and home playoff game?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
The Bucs might have too many problems to list. They made the mistake of trying to build a team quickly through free agency in 2014, including picking up 35-year-old career back-up Josh McCown and paying him $10 million over two years when they had Mike Glennon on the roster.

The Buccaneers have lost to all three of their division rivals already and were edged out in uninspiring games against the Rams, Vikings and Browns. Despite boasting a defence that includes Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, the Bucs have been outscored by 95 points in their eight games.

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The once explosive muscle hamster Doug Martin is a shadow of himself in a stagnant offense and Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans need more accurate passes thrown their way.

Prediction: The Bucs have been one of the major disappointments of the season and now face a tough run home, including games against the Bengals, Lions, Packers and Saints. They could win one more game against either the Falcons or Redskins, but are likely to finish with the second or third overall pick in next year’s draft.

Whatever pick they get they should spend wisely and hope to draft a quarterback to throw to their core of giant receivers. Head coach Lovie Smith should survive the horror season, only because it is his first year in Tampa.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
The Falcons (bye in Week 9) lost their fifth straight game in Week 8 to go to 2-6. But it was the manner in which they lost that was most concerning. Up 21-0 at Wembley Stadium, the wheels fell of for the Falcons in a big way as they blew the largest half-time lead in franchise history.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan looked good in the first half, but clock management problems, penalties and dropped passes ruined Atlanta’s chances late in the game. Ryan also tossed arguably one of the worst ever passes in an NFL game, straight to Lions cornerback Cassius Vaughn without a receiver in the area.

The Falcons’ problems this season started with an inability to keep Ryan upright and defenders out of his face. They have a potent offense, featuring two great receivers, but their offensive line has suffered so many injuries they are down to a group consisting of four back-ups and a rookie. Also, their running game has been poor and their defence has been unable to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Prediction: Last season (4-12) was supposed to be an aberration, but Atlanta might struggle to match that record in 2014. The Falcons are only two games back from first place in the division, but have lost five straight and look like a team struggling on all phases. Atlanta will miss the playoffs again and Mike Smith will be fired at season’s end.

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Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)
The defending division champion Panthers were expected to regress some in 2014. But they weren’t projected to be this bad. They won their first two games, but since then have gone 1-1-5 during a tough stretch.

Carolina had the best scoring defence in football in 2013 and excelled at stopping the run due to defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy and 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly. But with Hardy on the exempt list since a domestic violence conviction, the Panthers defence has struggled to hold their ground and rank 26th against the run.

The team let all of its receivers go in free agency and started from scratch. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin is an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate and Greg Olsen has been one of the league’s best tight ends, but the rest of the offense, including Cam Newton, have struggled.

Prediction: The Panthers pose the greatest risk to the Saints claiming their fourth NFC South division title, but lost valuable ground during Thursday night’s home loss. The toughest of their schedule is behind them and the Panthers can look forward to winnable games against Atlanta (twice), Cleveland, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. But they will need Cam Newton and that defence to improve if they are to repeat as champions in the once proud NFC South.

New Orleans Saints (4-4)
The Saints have finally emerged as a contender in the division. They started 2-4, but have won their last two games behind an improving defence and the dominant running game of Mark Ingram. Before Thursday Night Football against the Panthers, the Saints hadn’t won a game away from home or two games in a row.

Their offense had been surprisingly ineffective and their defence had given up late leads to the Browns, Lions and Falcons. First-round pick Brandin Cooks was expected to be a dangerous offensive weapon, but the Saints have so far struggled to get him involved.

Prediction: Provided the run game continues to be effective, the Saints should only get better in 2014. They have put together two solid games, but still haven’t shown they can be the Saints of old. If things go to plan for Sean Payton and Drew Brees the Saints should be the division’s lone playoff contender come January.

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But who knows, anything could happen, after all the NFL is full of surprises.

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