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I will make a prediction straight off the bat. The USA Eagles will emerge from the pool stage of the 2023 World Cup and make the semi-finals by 2027.
I was truly amazed at the frenzy America worked itself into during the last FIFA World Cup. I have vivid memories of bars bursting at the seems with maniacal red, white and blue clad armies.
As an Australian, I found it a bit over the top – but this is America after all.
And do not for a second think Americans went nuts about the their soccer team because they love or even like the game. Many do to be sure, but a large percentage, which probably differed by location, were just there for the atypical experience of cheering for their country on a global sporting stage. Despite all the in your face American patriotism, the opportunity for international team competition is rare.
Especially rare is underdog status, something even Americans are not immune to enjoying.
Of all the true international sports, rugby is by far the closest to the king of their national ‘sports’ obsession, American Football. They just don’t know it yet. If they went as crazy as they did for soccer, it tells me they will go even crazier for rugby once they get into it.
The weekend’s game at Soldier Field did enough to show average Joe American three important things: rugby is hard, rugby is fast and rugby is international.
I am certain rugby would have featured among the millions of sporting conversations taking place in bars around the country. The true heart of American sport culture is firmly grounded on a bar stool, chicken wings and beers in hands admits veritable deluges of words. Be sure that they had some to spare for the rugby on Saturday. The bars certainly had televisions to spare. When they talk about it, they will come.
A nation of 300 million people needs a much lower participation rate than any of the top rugby nations to yield a player pool of infinitely greater size. This is not sufficient to create a world class team, but nor is it insignificant.
In ten or even twenty years, the best athletes will not be strapping on rugby boots. But the cold reality for the rugby lovers is that America does not need their best athletes to compete on the world rugby stage.
Consider that of all the thousands of players in the American Football college system, only a few will make the NFL. Those who do not make it will still be supreme athletes and they will be looking for an opportunity to make a living with their abilities.
The only real barrier to USA rugby success is professional development. A young player’s talent will count for little without a professional playing and coaching environment. No matter how talented a college football player, without full time professional rugby coaching, he will not be able to learn the game.
So they will start like Argentina. The current Eagles team had five full time professionals. This will increase. Smart European and Japanese clubs will go talent scouting in college rugby.
USA colleges will begin to offer rugby scholarships to international students, probably starting with sevens rugby. Some of these players will elect to stay and play in the USA after they graduate. These evolutions alone will be enough to create a competitive Test rugby side.
Of course, finding the type of player required to challenge the best, in other words the All Blacks, will be a matter of luck. This will be especially the case in backrow, halves and centres, where rugby requires the most subtlety and instinct.
The green fields I have described above are unlikely to produce Richie McCaws, Dan Carters Kieren Reads or Conrad Smiths. But this is not unusual for world rugby. Only New Zealand regularly produces these players.
Other nations make do with well drilled workman and hope for intermittent brilliance. Australia have not won the Bledisloe in over a decade because we have not had enough World XV players. But yet we have still been ranked firmly in the top five.
The final frontier in the United States will of course be a professional competition. I cannot be sure how long it will be before this happens. But when Americans decide they want something, they do not mess around. When it happens, we will ask ourselves how it happened so fast.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.