Melbourne Cup Day is done and dusted, and now it’s time for the fairer sex to shine.
The fillies and mares dominate Thursday at Flemington, with the highlight race being the Million Group l Crown Oaks (2500m).
Prior to Saturday, all the talk was that trainer Robert Smerdon had the race at his mercy with Crafty, Lumosty and Fontein Ruby.
But after the Wakeful Stakes (2000m), the race has been thrown wide open with the likes of Abduction, Thunder Lady and even Goldconda all producing excellent Oaks trials. Crafty holds sway at the top of the market, narrowly ahead of Go Indy Go and Lumosty.
When it comes to the big one, I’ll be putting the Adelaide filly Go Indy Go on top. She has had a mixed campaign, but there was plenty to like about her effort in the Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley, making up a stack of ground at the back to finish third, just ahead of Bondeiger, who went within a lip of winning the Derby on the weekend.
The form has held up really well, and with this filly, she has always looked as if she will love the step up to 2500m. In terms of brilliance, there isn’t much between her and Lumosty, but I think with the staying potential, I’ll lean with Go Indy Go.
Lumosty wasn’t suited by the slow tempo in the Thousand Guineas (1600m), like Go Indy Go. Lumosty then went to the Fillies Classic over the same trip, and after being given quite an arrogant ride by Nick Hall, she toyed with her rivals.
She didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was really impressive. She has that Mosheen look about her in the sense that she probably isn’t a stayer, but she might just have the brilliance to beat them.
Goldconda was really good in the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Saturday I thought. She made up plenty of ground from near last, and warmed to the task beautifully the final 150m. For mine, she was the pick of the runners from the Wakeful and you’re getting $21. Great value chance because she is one who should get the trip.
Selections
Go Indy Go (2) on top, ahead of Lumosty (4), Goldconda (7) and Crafty (3).
Blacktype racing on Oaks Day starts off with the Group lll Gucci Stakes (1100m). I am taking on the proven fillies up the top and looking for some value and I reckon there is value in the Noel Mayfield-Smith trained Unequivocal.
On debut she closed off well at Randwick in the Inglis Classic (1200m) when third to Peggy Jean and Boomwaa, then went to Rosehill and beat Delectation and Peggy Jean. Everywhere you look there and you find Group l form. Hasn’t had an official barrier trial, but did have a jump out at Flemington a couple of weeks back and looked very sharp. I am keen on her each way.
Chiavari might only be coming off a Cranbourne maiden win, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive. She did work from a wide draw to eventually sit on the speed, then took care of the leader on the turn and safely held off a stakes performer to win and win with ease. Big step up here, but I was quite taken by that performance.
Forget Dual Star when she resumed at Warwick Farm. The track was an absolute bog and she simply couldn’t pick her feet up and dropped out. She is much better than that, and her trial win prior was outstanding, so I wouldn’t be jumping off her yet, and I do like the fact that Paul Messara has brought her down when he easily could have stayed in Sydney.
Selections
Unequivocal (4) at some value, to beat Chiavari (3), Dual Star (6) and Tawteen (2).
Three-year-olds who are probably just a couple of levels off Derby/Oaks quality get their chance during Cup week in the TCL 4K UHD TV Stakes (1800m). Team Snowden were desperate to get Proactive into the Derby, but he failed last time out at Newcastle as a short-priced favourite, running second.
But running third in that race was Thunder Lady, and she was an impressive winner of the Wakeful on Saturday and will be a leading player in the Oaks later this afternoon. This looks a pretty thin race, and even though he is a maiden, I’ll be with him here.
Easy Drama wasn’t suited by the on-pace bias first up at the Valley behind Tudor, then went to Caulfield and was much better over the mile when a closing fifth to Bondeiger, who went within a lip of winning the Derby on the weekend. Up to 1800m suits, is already a winner at Flemington and still appears to have plenty of upside.
Singularity worked home well two back at Cranbourne, then went to the Fillies Classic (1600m) on Cox Plate and ran fourth to Lumosty, beaten just over four lengths. I reckon a more conservative ride and a clear run here, and she is a definite player here at good odds. Should be noted that her and Easy Drama ran second and first respectively here in April and Singularity meets that colt 2kg better off for a length defeat.
Selections
Proactive (6) on top, to beat Easy Drama (1), Singularity (12) and Upham (10).
Some of the best sprinting mares in Australia will slog it out over 1200 metres in the G.H. Mumm Stakes (1100m). I will reluctantly going with Shamal Wind. I think under the conditions here, she is the best horse in the race, but she has looked like that at her past few outings and hasn’t won, so that’s my worry.
But she did close off really well in the Caulfield Sprint (1100m) behind Miracles Of Life, beaten a short head. She does get a weight pull on Miracles Of Life, so I’ll just go with Shamal Wind.
It might have been a dead heat win with Bel Sprinter, but Miracles Of Life was brave in winning there. She was first up for five months and sat on a hot speed yet kept finding when asked and duly got a win, even though she had to share it. She looks beautifully placed here, because she should get the perfect sit off speed demon Minaj and pounce on her, then hopefully not let Shamal Wind pounce on her.
Vain Queen has been a very frustrating horse to follow for the punters, because we know she has the ability, but she can be very hot and cold. I thought her chance last time out at Caulfield in the Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m) behind Target In Sight, but I don’t think she is a strong 1200m horse. Fresh, 1100m, home track, minimum weight, it looks a really good race for her off a freshen up.
Selections
Shamal Wind (4) on top, but with not much confidence, ahead of Miracles Of Life (1), Vain Queen (15) and Cradle Me (13).
A tricky edition of the Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes (1000m) will be run and won. Simply, just waddle your finger and hope for the best here! I am going to go for an emergency in the shape of Consorting. He produced a barnstorming run to win a heat of the 955m 55-second challenge at the Valley, against the bias, then contested another heat and had absolutely no luck when fourth to Diamond Oasis.
They have figured out the key to this horse – fast run sprint race and blouse them late, and with abundance of speed engaged here, he gets conditions to suit at good odds.
If you backed Straight Gold at the Valley on Cox Plate Day, best to forgive and forget he went around when ninth of 10 to Eight Bills. He never, ever got a crack at them and went to the line a stranglehold. He did work brilliantly prior to that with stablemate and Group l place getter Not Listenin’tome, so that tells there is nothing wrong with the way he is physically, and I rate him a serious threat here.
One for exotics at huge, huge odds is Belfast Boy. Two back he ran in the race which claimed the life of Caitlin Forrest, so best to put a pen through that race as a form reference and go on his last start effort when he stormed home from the back to run third against the bias towards leaders. Big leap in class here, but he has a fantastic record at Flemington and the patient Dwayne Dunn steers, which will suit this horse and his racing pattern.
Selections
Consorting (18) on top, ahead of Straight Gold (4), Belfast Boy (9) and Angels Beach (16).
Leaving out Sidestep because I’m assuming he will run in the Darley Classic (1200m) on Saturday.
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