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The Wallabies have kept their Spring Tour winning record rolling along, securing a five-point win against Wales.
FINAL SCORE:
Wales 28
Australia 33
Tonight Micael Cheika will lead his Wallabies into battle against Wales for the first of eight Tests in preparation for the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 1:30am (AEDT).
The match itself holds significance for a number of reasons. Wales is in the same pool of death as Australia and one of the three teams, England being the other, that will battle it out to progress to the quarter finals.
Australia dominates results over Wales and are currently on a nine match winning streak. Even though the results have not gone Wales’ way, they have been within a score in their last four matches.
The Wallabies will want to extend their winning streak into double figures and not give the Welsh any confidence before the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
Although Warren Gatland has not gone experimental in his selections, the move of George North to the midfield alongside Jamie Roberts suggests that Gatland is keen to beef up his midfield. Whether that is a smart move remains to be seen.
George North has been somewhat of a liability in defence for Wales, and perhaps Gatland believes the positional defence of North will improve by not having him on the wing. Liam Williams however cost his team a penalty try against South Africa when he recklessly took out Cornal Hendricks in their last match which turned the conversion kick from the side line to right in front.
In the process Wales lost the match by one point.
Looking at the selection of the starting Welsh backrow suggests that Gatland recognises the importance of winning the ruck contest against Australia and has included Tipuric as his impact player with his ability to link up with his back line.
Dan Biggar in favour of Priestland should provide Wales with better attacking opportunities, but the lack of a playmaker in the midfield suggests direct Welsh rugby. There isn’t much unpredictability about their backline.
Michael Cheika on the other hand is sticking to the Australian mantra of playing two 10’s, with Christian Laeli’ifano starting at 12.
The inclusion of Sean McMahon partnering Michael Hooper and Ben McCalman is a master stroke as the physicality and work rate of the debutant will improve Australia’s contact areas and close quarter ball carrying.
The impact bench of James Horwill, Will Skelton and Matt Hodgson will continue the same physical approach when they come on. Even though Will Genia and Quade Cooper are short of international game time this season, it will be interesting to see how they go when the match opens up in the last quarter.
Expect Wales to play their familiar style of direct running rugby, they will use Jamie Roberts and George North almost exclusively to punch holes in the defence, the power game of Gatland is severly dependant on quick ruck ball and being able to continue the attacking momentum before opposition defences are realigned.
Australia in recent matches have shown better cohesion at the breakdown and if they continue their commitment to the breakdown Wales will struggle to find quick ball.
There isn’t that much weakness in the Wallaby defence, and if Wales struggle to break through the Wallabies’ defence it is most likely that they will target the space behind the rush defence as Israel Folau is still not efficient in his defensive positional play.
The Wallabies on the other hand will showcase their offloading game, their running into space and use Tevita Kurindrani, their danger man, to bust through tackles and gaining the advantage line. Israel Folau will run off the shoulder of ball carriers into space.
The secret of the Wallaby success will be the pace at which they play, and equally for them it is important that they commit enough numbers to the contact areas to secure quick ball.
This match suggests it will be a classic. Wales will be desperate to win, the contacts are going to be huge, there should be no lack of intensity, but ultimately the guile of Australia and the need of the players to show newly appointed coach Michael Cheka that they belong, will put them across the line.
It is a dangerous business to predict the outcome of Test matches, but I am going for Australia by more than two scores.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.