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You don’t have to be glued to SportsCentre or constantly scrolling through NFL.com to know there’s been a lot of hype around the Dallas Cowboys this season.
That’s nothing unusual, of course. They are, after all, America’s team.
A recognisable brand in one of the largest markets in the US, with an often deranged, always headline grabbing, 72-year-old billionaire owner and the league’s most contrasting quarterback.
Win or lose, good or bad, you are always going to hear about the Cowboys. But this season the hype surrounding Big D has been louder than usual and primarily positive. They won six straight games to go to 6-1, before losing the next two against the Redskins and Cardinals.
The Cowboys’ season stabilised somewhat against a horrible Jaguars team in London on Sunday and they can now enjoy a bye before taking on the Giants in New York.
Their success in 2014 has been forged on the back of a surprisingly good defence, a dominant offensive line and running game and a relatively mistake-free Tony Romo.
But, despite all this, the Cowboys are destined for an unremarkable regular-season record – not much better than the 8-8 they achieved in 2011, 2012 and 2013 – and they will miss the playoffs again in 2014.
Here is why.
Romo’s niggling back injury
It wouldn’t be a promising Cowboys season without a timely injury to their star quarterback. Romo is tough, but he seems to regularly take a beating behind the line of scrimmage. He missed the loss against the Cardinals after suffering two fractures in his back against the Redskins in Week 8.
He needed a painkilling injection to return in that overtime loss and has since been trying to limit his pain and improve his function. Romo tossed three touchdowns against the Jags, but looked stiff early and unable to use his legs to extend or make plays. He missed a wide-open Jason Witten on what would have been the game’s first touchdown and looked either in pain or very ginger every time he took a hit.
Strangely, the Cowboys kept Romo in for some of the fourth quarter despite the blowout and he took his first sack. The Jags came in with 27 sacks on the season, but their pass rush was almost non-existent. Romo might struggle to stay on the field against a team that can consistently put hands on him.
The run home
The Cowboys play two pivotal games against the Eagles in a three-week span later in the season before finishing the year with tough games against the Colts at home and the Redskins away. They only play two more games at AT&T Stadium in the regular season and will have to pick up key wins on the road. Dallas is 4-0 away from home this season, but apart from the impressive 30-23 victory over the Seahawks those wins have come against teams out of playoff contention.
The Cowboys are 7-3 at present, but could easily be 9-7 by season’s end. The NFC East always seems to come down to a game between the Cowboys and Eagles and this season should be no different. While you could argue there is room for both teams in the playoffs, 10 wins might not be enough to progress in the NFC. Which brings me to my next point.
It’s crowded in the NFC
If the Eagles win the NFC East then two of the following teams miss the post-season; Green Bay, Detroit, Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas and Arizona. It’s not ridiculous to say the Cowboys could be one of those teams. The emergence of the Cardinals will hurt the Cowboys through more than just their Week 9 defeat.
The NFC West boasts three contenders and you can not rule out either the Seahawks or 49ers making a run to the playoffs and taking up one of those wildcard spots. In the NFC North, the Packers and Lions are neck-and-neck and both look like playing playoff football. I think the Cowboys need to win the division to play post-season football.
The blueprint on how to stop Murray
DeMarco Murray has had arguably the best start to a season for a running back in NFL history. He rushed for more than 100 yards in eight straight games to start the season, setting an NFL record. But against the Cardinals he managed just 79 yards. You could argue he only got 19 rushes and averaged an efficient 4.2 yards per carry, but Murray had the same amount of touches the week prior against the Redskins and rushed for 141 yards.
Murray’s limited workload in Week 9 confused a few people, who assumed with Romo out the Cowboys would rely on the run to keep back-up quarterback Brandon Weeden out of trouble. But the Cardinals loaded the box and limited Murray to 28 yards from 12 carries on first down, this made for longer second and third downs and put pressure on Weeden to move the ball down the field. The Cardinals stopped Murray from breaking out by adjusting their scheme to match the Cowboys’ talented offensive line.
After lining up in a 3-4 front for the past four years, the Cardinals switched to a primary 4-3 look and nose tackle Dan Williams and Calais Campbell dominated the league’s best offensive line. They also felt confident enough to stack the box on 39 per cent of Murray’s touches, compared to 16 per cent on the rest of the season.
If Romo spends any more time on the sideline then more teams could employ this technique and put pressure on the Cowboys to throw the ball, especially if they have adequate cover corners and safeties.
The success of an old rival
I still see the Eagles as the best team in the NFC East. They are 6-2, with their two losses coming by five points or less on the road against the Cardinals and 49ers. The Eagles might have lost Nick Foles for the majority of the season, but Mark Sanchez proved more than capable when he took over against the Texans.
Sanchez stepped in after Foles was injured in the first quarter and wound up throwing 202 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, including the game-clinching touchdown to Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles have a capable defence, two elusive running backs and the deep threat of Maclin. Their run home includes games against the Titans, Panthers, Redskins and Giants. They should finish with a record of 13-3 or 12-4 and that might be too many wins for the Cowboys to match.
A season-ending injury to a key member of the defence
The loss of weak side linebacker Justin Durant to a season-ending torn bicep should not be underestimated. Durant played in only six games this season, but was the Cowboys’ top tackler when he went down. He also had an interception and two forced-fumbles and had formed a good partnership with comeback kid Rolando McClain.
The Cowboys’ injury situation at linebacker has been horrible for sometime, with promising player Sean Lee tearing his ACL three times, but they did manage to have two out of the trio of Durant, McClain and Bruce Carter available for every game except one this season. That is set to change and the impact of the loss of Durant will soon be felt.
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