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The AFC North is currently the closest division race in the NFL, with all four teams within just one win of each other.
All teams have won two divisional match-ups, every team has won four games and lost just one match-up at home – and they have all struggled on the road.
The leader has shifted and changed and every week a new team emerges as the favourite to win the division. So let’s run the comb through each of these four teams and hopefully come up with a legitimate favourite.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens recorded a 21-7 over the Tennessee Titans over the weekend, bouncing back from their week nine drubbing at the hands of the Steelers. However, they did not look convincing at all in a match they were never really threatened.
Despite sitting at 6-4, the Ravens are ranked second in DVOA and are the third unluckiest team in the league according to Pythagorean Expectation, which totals points for and points against, then ranks teams in terms of point differential.
The Ravens have a better point differential than their record suggests and this is largely a result of their 1-3 record in games decided by seven points or less.
History shows that the Ravens will move towards an even record in these close games and history also shows us that Joe Flacco can pull rabbits out of the hat when games come down to the wire – just ask Denver fans.
After a bye next week, Baltimore has just one division match left, against the Browns in week 17. They have five highly important matches before then that starts with a trip to the Superdome to face the Saints. Following this test, the Ravens have four winnable matches.
My Prediction: Baltimore to go 4-2 over their final six matches, finish 10-6 and pick up a wildcard.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens coach John Harbaugh was quick to take a shot at the Steelers after their stunning upset against the Jets on Sunday but he would be wise to remember that the Steelers whooped Baltimore a week ago and currently sit above them in the divisional standings, if only by a tiebreaker.
After statement victories over the Colts and Ravens, in which Ben Roethlisberger threw for six touchdowns in two straight weeks, Pittsburgh and Big Ben came crashing back down to earth against the Jets, as Roethlisberger threw for a ‘disappointing’ 343 yards and two intercepts, although over 150 of those yards came in garbage time.
Unlike the Ravens, who are unlucky in terms of Pythagorean Expectation, the Steelers are the fourth luckiest team in the league, having over performed by 0.8 wins prior to Sunday’s/Monday’s loss.
However, while they have been lucky in terms of win-loss, they have been really unlucky when recovering fumbles, recovering just 38 per cent. History shows that recovering fumbles is largely a case of luck and it is likely the Steelers will progress towards 50 per cent in the final weeks of the season.
An ongoing cause for concern is the Steelers defence, they are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. While they have looked strong against the weaker teams in the league, Jacksonville, Carolina and even the Jets this weekend, they have struggled when facing the top tier of teams such as Baltimore, Indianapolis and even Cleveland twice.
The defence is lucky that unlike Baltimore, they don’t have to face the Saints in New Orleans, instead meeting them at home. It is no secret that New Orleans struggles on the road, especially in cold weather stadiums.
My Prediction: Pittsburgh wins four of their final six, including splitting their two upcoming matches against Cincinnati, and also finish 10-6.
Cincinnati Bengals
To say the Bengals have been inconsistent this year would be a massive understatement. In the games they have won, they have shown glimpses of a Super Bowl contender. In the games they have lost they have shown glimpses of a team owning the number one overall draft. Yes they were that bad against New England, Indianapolis and Cleveland.
Much of this inconsistency has centred on the play of quarterback Andy Dalton, who the team locked in as their quarterback of the future with a fairly large six-year, $115 million contract that the Bengals can’t really opt out of until after the 2016 season.
After Dalton’s Thursday Nightmare in Cleveland, in which he had a quarterback rating of 2.0 – yes you read that right – he has now thrown more intercepts than touchdowns, nine picks to just eight touchdowns.
He is throwing less than one touchdown a game and has thrown zero in four of his matches. As you keep digging, Dalton’s numbers just look worse and worse. He is ranked 23rd in the league in quarterback ratings and 29th in passer ratings. If the Bengals want to finish the season strongly and win the division, they need Dalton to improve.
The Bengals face a tough road to the playoffs if they are to get there. Four of their final seven games are against teams ranked above them in DVOA, and their other three are all on the road, in Houston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
The Bengals face a final four games that will either set them up for a deep playoff run or send them packing: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Denver and Pittsburgh again. It is easy to see them going 0-4 to finish the season and very difficult to see them finishing 4-0.
My Prediction: Bengals go 3-4 over their final seven games, eventually finishing the season 8-7-1 and out of the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
Arguably the biggest surprise packet of the season, the Cleveland Browns currently sit alone atop the AFC North with a 6-3 record. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that the prospect of starting Johnny Manziel is now a distant memory.
That is, at least until Brian Hoyer throws a four intercept game at home and the crowd starts chanting his name.
Brian Hoyer is a game manager, aka an average quarterback, who has led this team with aplomb. He has thrown just 10 touchdowns, but he has taken care of the football, throwing just four intercepts and fumbled the ball twice.
His passer rating of 90.4 is leaps ahead of Dalton and he hasn’t even had the luxury of an outstanding rushing attack. Ben Tate doesn’t exactly strike fear into the eyes of the opposition.
Much of the Browns success doesn’t make any sense. They’re average in almost every relevant statistical category, scoring defence, passing attack and rushing offense. But their success can largely be put down to three factors.
Firstly, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the league, through nine weeks, according to Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System. And it’s not even close. The Browns schedule is rated -4.7, the Buccaneers are next closest with -2.6. The Browns have gone 3-1 against teams that have won no more than two matches.
There are only five such teams left in football.
Secondly, the Browns have the third best red zone defence in the league, allowing just 4.2 points per trip.
That means that more often than not, the defence is holding teams to field goals once they get to the red zone. The third factor, which ties in with the second, is that they have the second most intercepts in the league, with 13, behind only the Cardinals who have 14.
The defence is routinely giving Brian Hoyer and the offense short fields to work with and allowing him to manage the offense without needing to lead long methodical drives.
My prediction
Cleveland finishes the season 4-3 over the last seven matches, ultimately finding themselves in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with a 10-6 record, leaving the mathematicians to sort out the tiebreaker scenarios.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
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