- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
He is the undisputed crown prince; the heir apparent to the throne currently being shared by two of the greatest quarterbacks of the 21st century – Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
And while Colts’ signal-caller Andrew Luck matched up against one on Sunday night, he will forever be compared to the other.
Luck finished with the better stat line at Lucas Oil Stadium, but Brady and the Patriots won their fifth straight game over the Colts, a 42-20 blowout on the back of the surprisingly effective running game of rookie Jonas Gray.
Playing from behind and with far less time of possession, Luck still managed to throw for 303 yards, two touchdowns and a second quarter tipped interception.
The 25-year-old first-overall pick out of Stanford got his team back within one score on two occasions, but it was the defence’s inability to stop the run that ultimately sunk the Colts.
Luck has emerged as the next great quarterback during his three seasons in the league, leading the Colts to two straight 11-5 seasons and the playoffs in 2012 and 2013. He has the Colts at 6-4 and the outright lead in the AFC South this season and can look forward to a favourable run into the playoffs.
From there, the Colts could prove to be a Super Bowl dark horse; TY Hilton has emerged as a superstar, Reggie Wayne is still proving dependable, Ahmad Bradshaw has been a beast in the screen game and their defence had ranked ninth overall at stopping the run before the blowout in week 11.
And then there is Luck. Like it or not, his career and Manning’s will forever be intertwined. Both were drafted No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts.
The drafting of one meant the departure of the other. Both inherited awful rosters and were forced to carry bad teams. But if you compare Luck and Manning’s first two seasons in the league, Luck has the upper hand statistically.
Luck had more passing yards (8196-7874) than Manning, less interceptions (27-43) and a slightly better passer rating (81.75-80.95), while Manning had more touchdowns (52-46) and a slightly better completion rate (59.4-57.1). Luck’s record of 11-5 and second place in the AFC South in his rookie year was superior to Manning’s 3-13 finish in 1998 as the Colts finished fifth as part of the AFC East.
Luck won a playoff game, virtually on his own, in his second season, while Manning and the Colts earned a bye, but then lost to the Titans in the divisional round.
Manning didn’t win a playoff game until 2003, his sixth year in the league. A combination of statistics and team success gives Luck the edge at this point. But to really compete with No. 18, he needs to do two things.
First, he must take the leap and become a perennial top three quarterback in the league, just like Manning did in 1999, and win consistently in the post-season.
That has always been Manning’s Achilles heel – he struggles to win in the crunch. If he emulates Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco and wins a Super Bowl in his first five seasons, then Luck can genuinely be talked about as Manning’s heir apparent. But whether or not he can enjoy the same longevity and the same high-level of play as Manning remains to be seen.
There is another effective way to measure whether Luck’s short career is worthy of comparison – if he can eclipse Manning’s single-season passing yardage record just a season after it was set.
Luck leads the league in passing with 3,388 and is currently on track to break Manning’s 5,477 mark.
He is averaging 339 yards a game, only five yards less per game than Manning did in 2013. Also, in 2013 the Broncos managed to lock up the top seed in the AFC with a few regular-season games remaining, meaning Manning was routinely rested in the fourth quarter.
The Colts may not enjoy that same luxury this season and Luck should play the vast majority of snaps.
The run home for the Colts does feature a few good pass defences, but Luck will also get to air it out against the Jaguars (26th in the NFL against the pass) and the Texans (29th).
Also, despite the signings of Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, the Colts don’t really have a run game and rely on Luck to power their offense and get them back into games. And the defence is just bad enough to keep them in a shoot-out, like when the Steelers thumped the Colts in Week 8 and Luck threw 400 yards and three touchdowns.
But Luck is not the only player with his sights set on a single-season yardage record in 2014.
DeMarco Murray needs 873 yards in six games – or 146 yards a game – to better Eric Dickerson’s mark from 30 years ago.
Before the Cowboys bye week he had rushed for 1233 yards in 10 games, leading all other running backs by more than 400 yards.
If his current average of 123 yards a game remains the same, Murray will finish on 1972 yards, about a game short of the record and good enough for eighth-overall on the all-time list.
But all he needs is to string together a couple of 150 or 200-yard outings against some of the struggling rush defences in the NFC East to be in with a shot. Murray faces the Giants (last in the NFL in opponents rushing yards) and the Eagles (19th) twice more before the season is over.
Meanwhile, both Antonio Brown (1,161) and Demaryius Thomas (1,015) have put themselves in contention to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards set just two years ago.
Brown leads the league in receiving and has been consistently good since Week 1. But the Steelers surprise loss to the Jets in week 10 was Brown’s worst performance of the season. He had just 74 yards as Ben Roethlisberger struggled.
The diminutive receiver was the favourite ahead of Thomas up until that point, but he slipped off the pace slightly.
The one advantage Thomas has over Brown is that Manning rarely produces a bad game, and even when he does he still airs the ball out for 350 yards. While Brown has been steady throughout, Thomas has exploded in the last seven weeks with 964 yards.
And despite playing in a more crowded offense, Thomas is the more likely to break the record. He has a game in hand over Brown – and the hot hand.
In 2012, Johnson and Adrian Peterson were both on track to eclipse the receiving and rushing single-season records respectively. But while Megatron managed to surpass the mark set by the great Jerry Rice, Peterson fell nine yards short of Dickerson’s incredible feat.
This season to have four players in the conversation for all three major single-season yardage records shows how the NFL’s focus on making the games safer is leading to more offense and more scoring. But this year, like in 2012, I can see only one player setting a new mark – Luck.
He’s got the weapons and he will get plenty of opportunity to throw. But most importantly Luck has got the motive. Breaking one of Manning’s records already would mean Luck could take one big step out of his predecessor’s shadow.
What do you think, Roarers? Will Luck break Manning’s record?
Hey, supercoach? Choose your own ultimate NFL team and compete with other players for cash prizes in daily competitions on any match. If you’re after the best odds on the NFL, PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.