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Why Anthony Davis will be the 2015 NBA MVP

Anthony 'Brow Down' Davis is on his way to the NBA MVP, unless LeBron can pull out a late season surge. Image AP
Roar Guru
19th November, 2014
17

It’s still very early in the NBA season to be having an MVP debate, but with player moves like that of LeBron James and injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, it’s worth an early look.

This year’s MVP could be the most hotly contested in a while. Right at the pointy end of candidates is former #1 pick and athletic sensation Anthony ‘Brow Down’ Davis with very good reason.

Rewind a couple of years when Davis was a rookie coming out of Kentucky and it was easy to fall in love with the block party, high-flying dunk mix tapes on YouTube.

Back then his potential was there for all to see, but most scouting reports came back with the same info – great finisher around the rim but needs a more polished offensive game. As a rookie with the Hornets, he showed plenty of that potential but was not given a heavy workload by Monty Williams.

The coach chose instead to develop his game over time instead of throwing him into the fire expecting results.

This strategy paid off in Davis’ second season. His game progressed even further with a significant jump in both his total output and per 36 minute stats. His statement of intent came in March this year when he posted a monster 40-point, 21-rebound game (both career highs) against the Celtics.

Unfortunately the Pelicans were hit with injury issues all season, forcing star players Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday to sit out long periods. Anderson being out for 60 games hurt the floor spacing dramatically and the Pelicans offence was not anything to marvel at. By the time they got close to full strength, their season was over.

During the off-season, the Pelicans went all in with their chips and traded a first round pick for Omer Asik so Davis could play more power forward and develop his mid-range game.

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Davis also spent another stint with USA Basketball in Spain, but this time he wasn’t watching from the sidelines. In 20mpg he posted 12.3ppg on 55 per cent shooting and led the tournament in blocked shots on the way to the gold medal.

The time spent with coach ‘K’ and the USA program has really benefited a lot of players over the years and Davis was one of the players to make the most of it.

Heading into this season Davis was not talked about as a serious MVP candidate – bookies had him at $33 before the first game – but in the first nine games he has come out firing.

His raw stats – 25.2ppg (3rd) on 58 per cent shooting, 11.7rpg (3rd) and 4.0bpg (1st) are impressive, but the advanced stats are even more amazing.

His 37.11 PER is crazy good (Wilt Chamberlain has the best PER for a season with 31.62) and he tops every other metric such as Estimated Value Added (124.6) and Estimated Wins Added (4.2) by a very big margin.

It would be silly to think that he would maintain those inflated numbers, given all of the Pelicans wins – except for a last possession winner from Davis over the Spurs – have come against sub .500 teams. Even if he regresses back to the mean, it’s a long way back to what would be a ‘normal’ figure, it will still be a stellar season.

So what makes this season different from the previous two and what can we expect from the Pelicans?

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First off, through the first nine games of the season the Pelicans have used two different starting line-ups and were only forced to after Omer Asik was unavailable for their recent game against Portland.

That kind of stability leads to familiarity with the players, something Davis has not had a lot of during his first two seasons. The more the starting line-up of Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik play together, the more they understand each other’s games and the plays and variations that Monty Williams wants to run.

That combination outscores opponents by 15.6 points when it is on the floor, which is not a bad outcome. Throw Ryan Anderson in with Davis and those two with a combination of three other players outscores opponents by 11.2 points.

The big difference in Davis’ performances this year has been the improvement in his mid-range game, along with a step up in his defensive prowess. This season outside of 16 feet from the basket, Davis is shooting a highly respectable 43.8 per cent (compared to 36.8per cent last season) while taking his second most shot attempts from this range.

Defenders must now drag themselves out of the paint to defend Davis to deal with the jump shot and this allows more room for the offence to work in – critical when Omer Asik is also on the floor.

If Davis can add a corner three to his repertoire over the course of the season then he could be even more devastating than he currently is. One facet of his game this season is that he is a remarkably consistent producer for the Pelicans. He can be counted on for his 25 and 13 most games and has really only put in one poor showing, which was against a tough Memphis side.

Also much improved this season is his defence as he learns how to move and operate in the NBA environment. With Omer Asik by his side there is no longer the responsibility to be the sole defensive anchor on the team. Davis can frequently be seen out on the perimeter guarding the team’s best wing – he was out on LeBron on a few possessions late in a loss to the Cavs. His steal and block numbers have sky rocketed from 1.3spg and 2.8bpg last season to 2.3spg and 4.0bpg this year.

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The steal numbers can be credited to operating more in the passing lanes and with his length that has to worry opposition teams.

Many NBA observers were critical of the Pelicans for throwing away first round picks in trades for Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik while also paying big money for players like Eric Gordon (warranted) and Tyreke Evans (having a killer season).

When you recognise that you have a future superstar on your roster, then why not try and surround him with quality pieces, even if that means sacrificing cap space and draft picks.

Cleveland had that situation with LeBron and failed to bring in role players that could make a difference (whether or not that was on LeBron is debate for another time). The Pelicans know they are onto a good thing and are making a play on proven talent rather than waiting to see if their future draft picks were NBA quality or hoping for free agents to sign with them further down the road.

I for one am excited to see how great Anthony Davis can be and I would not be at all surprised if he beats out LeBron, DeMarcus Cousins, Durant, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the MVP title. If the Pelicans can keep it together, hone their style of play and make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference – then he has every chance.

He is still paying $4 to win the MVP with some betting agencies, so get on while he is still great value.

It might soon be time to Brow Down to the youngest ever MVP.

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