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Denver versus Kansas City: A potential AFC West epic

The Broncos defence got them through to Super Bowl 50, but Manning also kept possession well. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
Roar Guru
26th November, 2014
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A week ago after Denver was upset by St. Louis, Kansas City upset Seattle and the Patriots destroyed Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, I wrote about potential playoff seedings.

I wrote about how the Patriots were in the box seat for the number one seed in the AFC and about how this weekend would have huge AFC playoff implications, with a Chiefs win over Denver and Patriots loss to Green Bay propelling Kansas City into the number one seed and Denver all the way down to a five seed.

This was all before Kansas City decided to go out to Oakland and deliver a Thursday Night stinker. Nevertheless, the Chiefs match against Denver is still incredibly important. It might not be for the lead in the AFC West, but it is still a vital match for both teams, especially Kansas City following their loss to Oakland.

The Broncos and Chiefs have clashed once already this year and it’s fair to say, despite the win, it was fairly ugly viewing for Denver fans. In hindsight, though, Kansas City is much better than the team we thought they were in week two.

Kansas was missing Jamaal Charles for almost the entire match and still managed to run for over 100 yards, including 42 to quarterback Alex Smith. On top of this, watching the game live it seemed as though Alex Smith was moving the team down the field with ease, dominating the time of possession stats, especially in the second half.

It has been proven time and time again that one of the most effective ways to beat Peyton Manning is to keep him on the sideline. Kansas City did this in Denver, especially in the second half.

The Chiefs first two drives to start the second half lasted 10 minutes and 7 minutes 42 respectively. Unfortunately for Kansas the first of those drives ended with a missed field goal, while the second ended with a Knile Davis touchdown run.

During the second half, the Chiefs controlled the football for 18 minutes and 54 seconds, on three drives.

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This is almost unheard of in the modern game for a team playing from behind. Ultimately the Chiefs ran out of time but this was not because of the second half game plan, it was because they let the Broncos get too far ahead in the first half and also because they couldn’t finish off the opening drive of the half with points.

When attempting to figure out who will win this match, it is important to factor in a number of considerations. Some of these are analytical others are perceptions and others based on history.

We’ll leave the analytics until last and talk about the perceptions first. The commonly held view is that Peyton Manning struggles in cold weather night games. To date Manning is 8-12 in matches where the kickoff temperature was below 40 degrees Fahrenheit, or 5 degrees Celsius. And guess what, current weather reports predict the game will be below freezing at kickoff on Sunday night.

Manning’s struggles in cold weather should not purely come down to his record. Those twelve losses include two matches in which Peyton didn’t even play out the first half as the Colts had their playoff seed locked up.

They also include the 2013 Ravens playoff loss (yes watching the highlights still hurts), a 294-yard, three touchdown performance in a loss to the Packers at Lambeau and last year’s overtime loss to New England – a match that the Broncos lost on special teams.

Yes, Manning has struggled in the cold and some of the criticism is rightfully deserved, but not every cold-weather loss can be attributed purely to Manning.

Interestingly, Manning is not the only quarterback to ever struggle in cold weather. Alex Smith has not exactly been Superman in the nine games he has played in cold weather throughout his career.

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To date he is 4-4 in matches he has started in played below 40° F, or 5° C, and even this stat is not exactly useful to us at face value.

The losses include putrid performances on some woefully poor San Francisco sides, including a 9-22, 77-yard and one intercept performance in Seattle in his rookie season in 2005 and a 310-yard, two-touchdown performance also in Seattle in 2009.

On the other hand, the wins include four matches in which he didn’t pass throw for over 200 yards. What I’m trying to say is that all quarterbacks are unpredictable and inconsistent in cold weather and it would be the height of stupidity to pick the Chiefs to win this match based on Manning’s struggles in cold weather alone. A number of other factors will affect the outcome of this match.

A far more accurate determinant of who will win this match is efficiency ratings, aka DVOA.

DVOA are such a telling statistic because it takes everything into account, position on the field, down and distance, time of game when rating teams and then compares teams to the NFL average.

This year has been a particularly peculiar year in DVOA ratings, Denver has the lowest rating for a league leader in this stat for as far back as the DVOA ratings go, 1989, while Tampa Bay who own the lowest DVOA rating in the league, hold the third highest rating for the team owning the lowest rating.

What this tells us is that this is an extremely close league in which any team can win on any day, as Kansas City showed us last week.

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While Denver remains ranked number one in DVOA, Kansas City fell one position from last week’s ranking following their shock loss to Oakland, with the Chiefs now sitting in seventh. A potentially major concern for the Chiefs is that their defence is below average, ranked 18th in the league, and they are coming up against the best offense in the league.

If they are unable to replicate the offensive successes of the first match between the two teams and if Peyton Manning is on song, the Chiefs will not win this match. The Chiefs will win this match by keeping the defence off the field for as long as possible.

Working in Kansas City’s favour is the fact that Jamaal Charles will more than likely be healthy for the entire match.

He is the third most efficient running back in the NFL and a key cog in the Chiefs offense. If he is able to run the ball effectively, the Chiefs will be able to keep the clock running and limit Manning’s time on the field.

A final, major concern for Denver is their special teams play. Throughout the season the Broncos’ special teams has been downright embarrassing.

They have responded by releasing Brandon McManus and replacing him with former Buccaneer Connor Barth. This move is a bit of a risk, Barth hasn’t played since the 2012 season, but the Broncos really had no other option. They could not afford to sit back and wait until McManus emerges from his dry patch.

The other area of note on special teams is the battle of the brothers, Denver’s Britton Colquitt verse Kansas City’s Dustin Colquitt. To date, Dustin has a slight edge in the net yardage category and is ranked number one in the league in punts landed inside the 20-yard line.

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However Britton has fewer touchbacks than his brother, seeing just one of his punts roll into the end zone.

The importance of this match to the AFC West finishing order has diminished greatly following Kansas City’s loss to Oakland last week. If the Chiefs had have won that game, the winner of this match would move to the top of the AFC West table and control their destiny for the remainder of the season.

Now, a Denver win will leave them controlling their destiny. However, a Kansas City win will still leave them lying in second place in the division. That loss to Oakland hurts them even more because it is a loss within the division and unless Denver also loses to Oakland or San Diego Kansas City will lose the division record tiebreaker.

A further problem for the Chiefs is that they face a tough schedule to finish the season. They travel to both Arizona and Pittsburgh, two of the toughest places in the league to play for road teams, and also face Oakland and San Diego at home.

Neither of the last two matches are certain wins and the first two are extremely tough propositions. Even if they beat Denver, it is unlikely that they will finish the season undefeated.

Denver on the other hand, also faces Oakland and San Diego but their other two matches are against Buffalo and they are lucky enough to face Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football (Andy Dalton is 2-9 in primetime games).

The match should be an epic, two of the best teams in the AFC facing off and jostling for playoff positioning. If Peyton Manning is on song in the potentially cold weather the Broncos will likely win.

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However, if the Chiefs are able to keep the Broncos offense off the field for long periods of time, the Chiefs will probably come out on top.

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