Thanksgiving. It means very little to us in Australia, but Turkey Day holds a special place in the heart of Americans.
It’s a national holiday. A day for giving, for family, for stuffing yourself full of food and, perhaps, most importantly, a day for football. This year Thanksgiving has served up a slate of mouth-watering NFC inter-divisional match-ups, including two clashes that promise to have a huge influence on the NFC playoff race.
You’ll have to get up pretty early to catch all three games, but a true NFL fan will be calling the boss on Friday and citing the need to recognise significant religious holidays in the workplace. Enjoy!
Bears at Lions
Friday 4.30am (AEST)
Line: Lions – 6.5
The Lions began hosting Thanksgiving games in 1934, but over the last 10 years have won only once on Turkey Day. The Detroit offense hasn’t posted a touchdown in the past two weeks but that should change against a Bears team who rank 28th in pass defence and have given up 50 points twice this season.
The Bears have won two straight games against paltry opponents to get to 5-6. The Lions have lost two to fall to 7-4 and give up the division lead to the Packers. The Bears are walking the tightrope and one more loss could spell the end of their season, while the Lions need to win to keep pace with the rest of the NFC wildcard contenders.
Detroit has the league’s best run defence, giving up only 70 yards per game, but they were gashed for that amount and two touchdowns on only a dozen attempts in week 12.
The Bears have got decent production out of their offensive arsenal in 2014, with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte all producing sufficient yards and touchdowns. But Jay Cutler has been average again, throwing too many interceptions and losing too many fumbles.
The Bears defence, minus rookie Kyle Fuller, has struggled against the pass and has been blown out by Green Bay (twice) and New England.
Key to the game: Calvin Johnson versus Tim Jennings and the Bears secondary.
Johnson has been hampered by lingering injuries this season and has only played six meaningful games.
Two seasons after breaking the single-season receiving record, Megatron ranks 42nd overall in yardage and has just three touchdowns. But the most alarming statistic is that Johnson has caught only half of his targets in 2014.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily at times this season, but he is still throwing the ball Johnson’s way (37 targets in the past three weeks). Johnson gets his chance to bounce back into some form against a weak Bears secondary, who have allowed 25 touchdowns (second most) and 2,865 yards (fifth most) this season.
Johnson is likely to be matched up opposite diminutive Bears cornerback Tim Jennings for most of the game, meaning he should be able to use his 196 centimetre frame to grab every jump ball over the 173 centimetre tall Jennings.
Player to watch: DeAndre Levy, Lions LB
Levy may be one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. In 2013, he had 119 tackles, six interceptions and a touchdown for the Lions and he has been equally disruptive from the weakside linebacker position again this season.
To give you an idea of how versatile and valuable Levy has become in this dominant Lions defence, the sixth-year pro out of Wisconsin has proved he can cover wide receivers like Jordy Nelson and stop the run in the backfield.
Robert Klemko from Monday Morning Quarterback said of Levy: “The outside linebacker as we know him is fading into football history, something like every-down running backs and midget cornerbacks before him.”
“In the place of your traditional stand-up linebacker is a new prototype: DeAndre Levy. 6-2, 235 pounds, sub 4.5 40-yard dash. He doesn’t shed blocks so much as he side-steps them, and he doesn’t tackle so much as he strikes. He’s good for a missed tackle or two per game, and at least one game-changing play.”
Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 14
Eagles at Cowboys
Friday 8.30am (AEST)
Line: Cowboys -2.5
The NFC East always seems to come down to a game between these two old rivals. In week 17 of the 2013 season, the Eagles and Cowboys faced off in Dallas for what was the de facto NFL East Championship game.
The winner would claim the sixth and final playoff spot in the NFC and the loser would be eliminated from playoff contention. The Eagles won 24-22 but wound up losing to the Saints in the wildcard game.
This season won’t come down to one final game, but the Eagles and Cowboys do play each other twice in the next three weeks. Those games could decide who represents the NFC East in the postseason.
The Eagles look to have shaken off the untimely injury to quarterback Nick Foles, winning three out of the four games with Mark Sanchez under centre. Sanchez hasn’t been brilliant (seven touchdowns and six interceptions) but a good pass rush, some timely special teams touchdowns and the spluttering run game of LeSean McCoy has held the Eagles together.
The Cowboys on the other hand have righted the ship following two successive losses against the Redskins and Cardinals. Tony Romo is back and looks unencumbered by the back injury he suffered in Week 8.
He threw four touchdowns and led a fourth-quarter comeback against the Giants last week and the Cowboys appear to have found the ideal balance between pass and run.
Key to the game: Cowboys offensive line versus Eagles pass rush.
The Eagles defence sacked Cam Newton nine times just a few weeks ago and rank second overall (38 sacks) in the NFL in terms of getting to the quarterback.
Linebackers Connor Barwin (12.5) and Trent Cole (6.5) have accounted for half of those and the Eagles have made a habit of getting teams behind in the down and distance in the games they have won this season.
On the other side the Cowboys offensive line has been one of the more impressive in 2014.
They have excelled in run blocking, allowing DeMarco Murray to rush for 1,354 yards, but their pass defence has given up 21 sacks.
The key for the Eagles defence is if they can consistently pressure Romo and flush him out of the pocket. If they prove they can put hands on the Cowboys quarterback then the team may lean on the running game, making them more predictable in situational downs.
Player to watch: Jordan Matthews, Eagles WR.
In one of the best rookie receiving classes in recent memory, the Eagles second round pick out of Vanderbilt has been quietly going about his business behind Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper.
When the Eagles decided to let deep threat DeSean Jackson go in the off-season they had to find another weapon to provide some potency through the air.
Matthews – 191-centimetre tall and 96 kilograms – has emerged in the past few weeks as a perfect fit in the Eagles offense.
He has good length, runs clean routes and has soft hands. So far this season he has six touchdowns and 635 yards, accumulating four of those touchdowns and 362 yards in the past four weeks.
Matthews good run of form has coincided with Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback and the 22-year-old will look to snag a few more touchdowns against a Cowboys secondary who have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24
Seahawks at 49ers
Friday 12.30pm (AEST)
Line: 49ers -1
These two teams just flat out don’t like one another. This will be the first time the teams have met since the Seahawks ousted the 49ers in the NFC Championship game last season.
After Seattle flattened the Broncos in the Super Bowl, that game was considered by many to be the real national championship. These games have become a war of attrition over the last few seasons, with both teams preferring to take few risks on offense and instead rely on their stingy defence.
The Seahawks (7-4) and 49ers (7-4) both trail the surprisingly good Cardinals (9-2) and it’s hard to see all three teams making it out of the NFC West.
So this game should prove pivotal, if the Seahawks win they will hold the edge heading into their rematch in week 14 in Seattle. If the 49ers are victorious they can enjoy a slightly easier run home with winnable games against the Raiders and San Diego.
Key to the game: Marshawn Lynch versus the 49ers front seven.
An apparent bad attitude, one-word answers and six-figure fines aside, Lynch is still the heart and soul of the Seahawks offense. He can still break out the beast mode every now and again and still has a nose for the end zone. The Seahawks offense has been lacklustre at best this season.
Golden Tate and Percy Harvin are gone and Russell Wilson ranks higher in rushing yards than he does in passing. Seattle rely heavily on their defence and the running game of Lynch to get them out of trouble in close games.
If the Seahawks offensive line can move 49ers defensive ends Ray McDonald and Justin Smith aside and get up to the second level then Lynch will be able to control the ball and the clock for the Seahawks.
Player to watch: Michael Crabtree.
It’s been about 10 months since that tipped interception in the NFC Championship game. What followed was an image burned into the mind of every NFL fan – Richard Sherman, silver Seahawks cap pulled over his eyes, screaming down the camera into millions of homes, calling Crabtree a “sorry receiver”.
The two haven’t crossed paths on the field since then but there has been plenty of words. After such a public indignity, Crabtree finally gets a chance to redeem himself at Levi Stadium on primetime national television.
A two-time Fred Biletnikoff Award winner for the best wide receiver in college football, Crabtree hasn’t made the leap into the NFL like so many expected him too. He has only one 1,000-yard season in six years and has hauled in 48 catches for 567 yards so far in 2014. Crabtree says he is done feuding with Sherman.
It’s time for him to let his play do the talking.
Prediction: Seahawks 16, 49ers 13
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