With AFL national draft night upon us excitement is at fever pitch. Fans love the draft because of the hope that it brings for the future.
Players love the draft because for around 100 young men this is the commencement of being able to satisfy a lifelong dream.
Coaches love the draft because a group of impressionable young men are about to be ready to hang on every word they say. Clubs love the draft because it is where the pieces start to come together and a plan starts to take shape.
For me that last part is the most interesting about the draft night. The draft really gives you the greatest insight to a club, where they think they are at and where they are going in the short and long term.
Forget the hype of what a player can do or will be, for me it is looking at what a club is doing and why they are doing it. For the footy analysts nothing can beat draft night.
Over the next three weeks I will look to bring a proper analysis of what the draft means for clubs and where they are headed. While clubs may add a player or two during free agency and trade period, in almost every case it is the draft where clubs bring in the majority of their list changes for the next year.
At no other point during the off-season do clubs bring in four or more players that help shape a list. Forget ridiculous grade systems, this will be an analysis of the ‘why’ of the draft. Why each club drafted each player in the draft.
Before that though, the draft needs to take place and with more than 200 hopefuls waiting to hear their name called, recent history tells us that one group of players has a far greater advantage than any other. That group hail from Victoria, and namely those that played in the TAC Cup.
In the past three years 70 per cent of the top 20 picks have come from TAC Cup clubs. That is up from about 55 per cent 10 years ago and far outweighs the 30-35 per cent participation figure that comes from young adult Victorian males.
So is this heavy weighting of Victorian talent part of a mentality where club recruiters all look and think the same? Is it because of the higher proportion of clubs based in Melbourne, is it because there is more talent in Victorian footballers or is it because the TAC Cup has done an outstanding job in promoting itself and the talent on display?
In honesty probably all four of those ideas have a level of truth about them, but the final one, that the TAC Cup market players better is the key driver in the high number of high draft picks coming from the competition.
The TAC Cup has continued to grow its exposure in the mass media and through improved television and media deals have been able to profile its brightest stars throughout the past few seasons. It cannot be seen as a coincidence that players from the TAC now dominate top picks at the AFL national draft.
While this is a great story for the TAC Cup it should be a lesson to other competitions like the SANFL and WAFL, which continue to lag behind in being able to promote its next stars. Instead they rely on the NAB Under-18 Championships as being enough to get players drafted. In this modern world being socially active is crucial and it is where Victoria is winning the battle against other football states.
Of course the downside to clubs being overexposed to Victoria’s players is that they are potentially overlooking other states and other players who may not have the hype but do have the pedigree to be bigger stars.
The proof of this is in the key big misses from the past five seasons since the TAC Cup has increased its exposure and more players have been drafted out of Victoria.
In 2013, Luke Dunstan and James Aish, both from South Australia, fell in draft boards over the season and were two of the draft steals last year. From a weak 2012 class South Australians Sam Mayes and Troy Menzel have both developed into two of the best players from that draft despite being drafted outside the top seven, while later picks in Dean Kent and Dean Terlich from Western Australia and South Australia respectively have been strong role players with Melbourne and defied their own draft pick.
2011 is littered with interstate misses with the Chad Wingard miss by Greater Western Sydney among the great draft day blunders considering their concessions. Western Australia’s Brad Hill is among the great draft day gets, falling past the top 30 while South Australians Sam Rowe and Lachie Neale are another two that have been far better than their draft day selection.
2010 saw Brodie Smith, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Alex Fasolo and George Horlin-Smith all fall outside the top 13 and would now be considered among the best from that draft class. And of course 2009 has the Nathan Fyfe story.
It is a balancing act for clubs and recruiters. Where is the hype proven and where is talent lurking, just waiting to be unearthed?
This draft, like all others, will have its surprises and its steals. Recent history tells us that the TAC Cup will dominate the early rounds, but just maybe the next premiership players will come from outside Victoria late on the draft evening.
As the top picks get interviewed and are presented with their club gear, remember that premiership players may be having their name called behind the hype.
Hype versus performance, that is the AFL national draft in 2014.
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