Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers are currently undergoing the most extreme rebuilding project in NBA history. The process it has quite a few fans, teams and pundits in an uproar.
To every man and his dog it is quite clear what they are trying to achieve – finish with the worst record in the league so they have the best shot at getting the #1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft, while also keeping a healthy bottom line.
It is so extreme that the NBA tried to change the way the entire draft works without success and one of their more exciting rookies this season, KJ McDaniels, has only signed a one-year deal knowing that if he plays well he can get off this team and play for one next season that wants to win.
It seems the only one not clued on to this tactic is their starting PG, Michael Carter-Williams, who wrote this article about how he doesn’t think the 76ers are tanking.
So how exactly are they tanking and what are the potential consequences to both the 76ers and the NBA as a whole?
How are they doing it?
Sam Hinkie has clearly been given a rare opportunity by management to implement a long-term plan to gather and develop elite talent that will give them the best possible chance to compete over the next three to five years.
Not many GMs can sell the long-term rebuilding idea to their owners, given the time frame involved and what is at stake.
Over the past two seasons the 76ers have been trading away every player of value they had on their roster – Spencer Hawes, Thad Young, Byron Mullens, Evan Turner and Lavoy Allen for a combination of draft picks and expiring contracts.
Their roster now looks like a D-League team, with Michael Carter-Williams the only player on the list that a casual fan might have heard of. Even this is still unlikely.
Hinkie’s efforts so far. They netted the 2013 #1 pick in Nerlens Noel, the 2014 #3 (Joel Embiid) and #12 (Dario Saric) picks, along with their own first round pick and Miami’s first round pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. They also secured three more second round picks from Golden State, Orlando and New Orleans.
The result so far has been an almost historic 0-15 start and unsurprisingly they are dead last by three games to a Detroit team that actually wants to win.
It’s not that the team doesn’t want to win, just ask Michael Carter-Williams, it’s just that they’re not setup to succeed.
The only player you would say could start on any other NBA team is Michael Carter-Williams and even then there are only a few teams you could argue he would be an upgrade for.
It’s not like the 76ers players are out there throwing the ball out of bounds every second play or leaving the opposition unguarded on every possession but it’s hard to compete in the NBA without a quality roster.
Right now the bulk of the roster is made up of young players who don’t have a lot of winning experience or are backup level players trying to prove they belong in the NBA.
What are the Risks/Rewards for the 76ers?
It’s easy to see why they are doing what they are doing. It’s likely that, in 2015-16 they could field a starting line-up of Carter-Williams, Emmanuel Mudiay (2015 projected #1 pick), Dario Saric (if he comes over from Europe), Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel.
While that might not be a world beater next season, that core playing together for the next five to six years could be a very scary prospect for the league. If that team is somehow still lurking down the bottom of the league, then they might have the chance to land highly praised Australian, Ben Simmons, with the #1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
Together with the numerous second round picks and potential veteran role players they could sign with the mountain of cap space they will have it gets scarier.
Add in all the second round picks they are owed from 2016-18 (four in total) plus their own first round picks (they don’t owe any to other teams) and they are primed to have a vast array of trade options in their pocket.
While imagining that future is what is keeping Hinkie comfortable in his job right now and the fans in their seats at games, it has the potential to go very wrong. There are so many variables that must go right for the 76ers to get to the upper echelon of the NBA beginning with how good their draft picks are going to be.
Joel Embiid generated a lot of excitement before the Cavs discovered his foot injury pre-draft but it remains to be seen if he can come back from that.
Dario Saric is a highly regarded player in Europe but then again so were Darko Milicic, Andrea Bargnani and Jan Vesely.
Nerlens Noel is a shot blocker through and through but whether he can develop an offensive game is another thing; although he might not need one if everyone else lives up to their potential.
Carter-Williams has shown glimpses of his talent but as Kirk Goldsberry from Grantland points out in this article, he was one of the worst shooters in the league last season and is only shooting 36 per cent this season and 20 per cent from deep.
You also have to factor in the bad habits and culture that develop from prolonged periods of losing.
This is a team without any veterans to mentor their young core, so whether that hurts them long term remains to be seen. Then there is also the possibility that their first round picks in 2015 don’t pan out given the very hit-miss nature of the NBA Draft.
It’s one thing to sell your current fan-base on potential while trotting out a somewhat fun but really awful product to them 41 times a season and expecting them to pay money for it – but if the potential doesn’t eventuate, then a lot of fans might not come back.
Hope springs eternal but if you keep dangling the rebuilding carrot for too long, then casual fans that come in off the street will lose interest.
Already they are ranked 29th in the league for home attendance and I can’t see that getting any better this season unless Joel Embiid makes his debut.
Does this affect the NBA?
You would think that hosting a really bad team would mean that your stadium would be half empty, but you would be surprised. While also providing some hilarious fan moments involving fans reading newspapers while the game is on, the 76ers actually rank #3 in away attendance.
Some of this is due to playing teams with consistently good home crowds (Bulls, Knicks and Mavs) but they have also played teams at the other end of the scale like the Bucks and Pacers.
Whether they stay one of the top ranked teams at the end of the season is another thing but right now the numbers suggest only their home fans are not turning up.
While attendance numbers might go down in the short term, the potential for them to recover in the long term if the 76ers turn out to be a top ranked team in the future is very real.
Their plan is very divisive with the NBA community split between whether it is good for the game or is damaging the reputation of the NBA.
If the 76ers end up with a decent team then the debate that started last season will have taken a turn and developed into a ‘is it fair this team exists’ narrative. Much like LeBron James and the Heat, I can see fans of other teams disliking the 76ers on the principle of how they got so many high draft picks on the same team.
What is also due to happen in 2016-17 just as the 76ers are primed to start improving? The NBA’s new TV deal, which at $2.7 billion is worth three times the current deal, kicks in and the salary cap is poised to skyrocket.
What better way to usher in the new NBA era than a loaded 76ers team that could be one of the most talked about teams since the LeBron-era Miami Heat going up against some potentially loaded big market teams. The Lakers, Knicks and Nets are all set to have massive cap room.
Add in the free agency drama that will be going on (watch all the 2015 free agents seeking short-term deals that make them free agents right after the new deal kicks in) and the NBA is primed to cash in. Let’s hope the owners don’t get greedy and cause another lockout.
Conclusion
Some will argue that what the 76ers are doing isn’t in the spirit of the game and is devaluing the NBA. There is nothing wrong with what they are doing in terms of the rule book but it still rubs people the wrong way and I can certainly see where they are coming from.
One interesting tidbit about the NBA revenue sharing scheme is that the 76ers aren’t eligible to receive anything due to the fact they have a TV market over 2.5 million households. So the strategy employed here is dangerous combination of trying to get better draft picks and surviving financially under the current regulations.
It makes all their seemingly crazy moves make sense and you can read further into all the transactions here. If this was Milwaukee, New Orleans or Charlotte then the task of managing the balance sheet would be a lot easier.
This is not a clear cut plan for success that the 76ers are undertaking here. There are so many variables that are taking place that it could easily go either way for them.
To say that this is wrong doesn’t take into account the potential risks they face if it all goes pear shaped. Philadelphia is such a strong basketball city that I think they will get through the consequences of this plan no matter what, but I for one am looking forward to seeing what comes of this tactic as it could shape the future of the NBA for the next decade or more.
Do you think it is wrong, or do you agree with what the 76ers are doing?
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