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He arrived as the DC Messiah, but Robert Griffin III will leave the Redskins as one of the biggest quarterback busts in recent memory.
The man known universally as RGIII was benched by rookie head coach Jay Gruden ahead of the Redskins 49-27 loss to the Colts in week 13, the second time in two years the Baylor product has been pointed in the direction of the pine towards the end of a disappointing season.
In 2013, while under the watchful eye of Mike Shanahan, RGIII was replaced by Kirk Cousins. This season he has been told to make way for Colt McCoy.
There are not many franchise quarterbacks who have suffered that ignominy and been asked to stick around. There are fewer who have then led the team that drafted them to any great success.
When Gruden benched Griffin ahead of the Colts game he was essentially signing his walking papers. If there was a chance he wanted to keep Griffin around past the end of this season or next, then he would have given the No. 2 overall pick the opportunity to show the team is better off with him at the helm. It should be noted that the Redskins have a big decision to make about Griffin this off-season.
He is signed through 2015 at a modest $3.2 million. The Redskins have an option for a contract extension that would keep him on the team in 2016, but they would have to pay him around $18.4 million.
The problem is the team must decide whether or not to sign him to the extension by May 2015, before he gets to play another game.
Gruden must have already made up his mind that Griffin is not the future of the franchise because by not letting him start the last few meaningless games he has effectively closed the door on his return to DC.
If that is his thinking then I have to agree. Forget being the future, Griffin isn’t even the present in DC. He was only briefly the past. He has had one good season as a pro – his rookie year – when he threw 3200 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. He had seven more scores on the ground and led the Redskins out of the NFC East and into the post-season for the first time since 2007.
In that moment, after the Redskins seven-game win-streak to end the regular season and edge the Giants out of the playoffs, Griffin was all that he was cracked up to be. He was the saviour in DC.
But it was in that fateful playoff game, against the visiting Seattle Seahawks and on that shoddy FedEx Field turf that Griffin’s career changed forever. With the Redskins season slipping away, he went after an errant snap.
His right knee buckled. Seattle recovered the ball and won the game. Griffin had injured his ACL and LCL ligaments. Then after a limited pre-season, Griffin returned in week 1 of 2013 in what Redskins vice president and general manager Bruce Allen later admitted was a mistake.
He failed to replicate his 2012 form. He threw for almost the same amount of yards, but less touchdowns and more interceptions.
He also ran the ball less and far less successfully. Griffin’s game had regressed. In 2014, he suffered another lower leg injury, this time a dislocated left ankle against the Jaguars in week 2.
Since his return he has proven ineffective in losses against the Vikings, Tampa Bay and 49ers – throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions for an overall quarterback rating of 26.7.
And so with the offense struggling to move the ball and after a glaringly bad outing against San Francisco where he managed just 106 passing yards, Griffin was benched again.
The backslide was complete. The Washington Post has called it “one of the most spectacular flame outs in recent NFL history” and have the statistics to back up their claim.
According to ESPN QBR, a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of his play and what it means for wins, Griffin ranks 53 among all 80 players that have thrown a single pass this season.
If you limit it to just quarterbacks that have played 250 snaps, his 26.7 would rank between Blake Bortles, who is last with 21.8 and Geno Smith (27.6).
Plus Griffin got progressively worse in the last four weeks. And before you blame Griffin’s issues on the offensive line, Washington’s pass blocking ranked 16th in 2012, fourth in 2013 and 13th in 2014.
Yet he still declined at a faster rate than other quarterbacks drafted with one of the top five picks over the past decade. And not only did he decline, but there has been just one quarterback since 2005 drafted at any point in the first round who declined at a higher rate to a lower point than Griffin.
Tim Tebow.
These are damning statistics. And have prompted many, including former Redskins linebacker and now NFL analyst LaVar Arrington, to declare Griffin is finished with the Redskins.
“This is the end of RGIII’s career in Washington DC,” Arrington said on NFL Network.
“There’s no way you can come back from what has transpired. The only way you can make this a win-situation is if you can get some high draft picks out of this to salvage what you gave up to bring him in here in the first place. But the bottom line is, this has been a failed situation.”
“Whether it’s been RGIII’s failing on and off the field, whether it’s been the coaching staff failing, whether it’s been the organisation and the team failing, it’s a failed situation.
“If you are taken out of the game and you are benched in two different seasons – not one, not different occasions – you have been taken out the same exact way in two consecutive seasons, the track record has now been established.”
Let’s take a step back in time for a moment. Only a couple of years ago. April 2012. The NFL draft in Radio City Music Hall.
It was when the Redskins gave up all those picks to jump into St Louis’s spot to be guaranteed one of those top two picks in the draft.
According to all the scouts and judges, the best two players declaring for the draft that season were Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III.
The pair had come head-to-head only a few months earlier in New York at the Heisman Trophy ceremony, the wide-smiling, dreadlocked Griffin claiming the first bronzed statue in Baylor Bears history.
But this was different kettle of fish. This wasn’t about statistics and highlights, wins and losses. This was about projecting a superstar. Somebody worthy of the No. 1 pick. Luck went first. Griffin second.
Both were supposed to be a slam dunk. Only one was.
After hitting the jackpot with Peyton Manning 14 seasons earlier, the Colts got it right again. The Redskins – who had a title-starved city to satisfy – gave up three first-round picks and a second-round pick in 2012 for Griffin.
The risk didn’t pay off. In fact, RGIII’s re-benching recently has highlighted the fragility and failures of the 2012 draft class. Of the top seven picks, only Luck is living up to expectations.
Trent Richardson went third to the Browns, but was traded away and has been the least effective running back of the last two years.
Offensive tackles Matt Kalil went fourth to the Vikings but has given up more sacks than any player this year. Justin Blackmon (fifth to the Jaguars) has been suspended indefinitely for repeated off-field discretions, Morris Claiborne (Cowboys with the sixth pick) was benched this season and then tore his patellar tendon and Mark Barron (seventh to the Bucs) was traded away to the Rams for fourth and sixth-round picks.
Beyond Luck, No. 9 pick Luke Kuechly has been a beast and No. 11 pick Dontari Poe and No. 21 pick Chandler Jones have proven to be the next best first-round selections.
Not only did the NFL general managers and talent scouts get it wrong when ranking prospects, but the entire draft class was lacking in talent.
Of those taken outside the first-round, only Russell Wilson, Alshon Jeffery and Alfred Morris have become household names.
If 2012 was one of the worst draft classes of the last decade then 2011 was one of the best.
Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, JJ Watt and Robert Quinn all went in the first round.
After them came Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray, Julius Thomas and Richard Sherman. A retrospective glance at that list and Redskins management will be kicking themselves for not taking a plunge in the draft a season sooner.
As for Griffin, the Redskins say he remains “a significant part of the organisation’s long-term plan”.
That sort of lingo usually signifies a desperate attempt to maintain some sort of trade value for Griffin. Whatever they get it will be nothing compared to what they gave up and these three seasons will forever be known as the Redskins’ lost years.
But how will Griffin be viewed when it is all over. Was he just a bad quarterback? Or did the Redskins ruin him? Also, what do you think was the best draft class of the last decade and what was the worst?
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