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Believe me there has never been a statement, nor sentiment of my own design that I want not to materialise more than this one.
I am a South African and I am about as Springbok crazy as you could get and I want my team to lift the Webb Ellis next year more than anything in the world.
But I cannot ignore the force of reason spiraling within my cerebral cortex. I must say it, I must admit it.
Richie McCaw, the greatest player of all time, will lift the World Cup in London next year with his excellent All Black teammates.
This is, of course, just an opinion and not a fact. I’m not forcing this down anyone’s throat and I’m not kissing up to either McCaw or the All Blacks, but I find it very hard to believe that anyone could usurp the All Blacks to the throne next year.
I mentioned in my opening paragraph that I wholeheartedly yearn to see my beloved Springboks be the first team to win the title thrice and I meant it. I would feel nothing other than utter jubilation should this happen, and I will, admittedly, drink like there is no tomorrow should that happen.
Let it be clear that I have not lost faith in the green and gold. I have not forsaken my team. I remain steadfast and strong in my support of my men. They can win, I know that and you know that too.
But still the land of the long white cloud seem destined to triumph and I can’t think of a team that deserves it more. Now that I have claimed my allegiance without doubt I’ll explain why I have made this ill-boding prophecy.
I have made it clear since my virtual birth on The Roar that I regard Richie McCaw as the greatest ever. Yes I, a South African, have claimed this. Richie McCaw is the inspiration that drove me to watch rugby, to immerse it, be moulded by it and ultimately to play it. He remains the world’s premier captain, its greatest ambassador and I, his biggest fan.
He and his team have only lost twice since the last global showpiece. Once convincingly beaten by England in 2012 and once controversially beaten in South Africa a few months ago.
The All Blacks have come a long way since their magical moment in 2011 and they have unearthed several fantastic players since then. I think of Julian Savea who burst onto the scene in 2012.
The 193-centimetre mammoth of a winger didn’t catch my attention in his first two years. I confess that I thought of him as just another Matt Banahan or another George North, JP Pietersen, Tommy Bowe or an Alex Cuthbert. He was just another winger 190-centimetres tall and 100-kilograms big, give or take.
Basically,a big guy who just runs into people, relies on his size.
To be fair, two of the wingers I have mentioned aside from Banahan, North and Cuthbert actually have more to their games than just smash and bash – but neither of the two combine size, style and speed quite like Savea does.
I can honestly say that if he were just a battering ram, I’d have less fear for Savea than to my mother’s homemade tuna salad. Against smaller backs he looks unstoppable, against Etzebeth not so much, as we saw at Ellis Park.
What makes Savea so dangerous is that he can actually kick, pass, tackle and most importantly, he understands the concept of space and exploitation.
The All Blacks are blessed with the best winger on earth in him.
The All Blacks also have Kieran Read who is currently the second best Number 8 in the world behind Duane Vermeulen. Currently is the key word.
To be honest I had never been a fan of Read, I simply can’t stand the guy. And I didn’t care what others had to say about that, still don’t. But I don’t let bias – and what I feel for Read is simply bias in the first degree, don’t be deceived – cloud my judgement.
Read is a special player. A number 8 with okayish physicality, good pace, awe-inspiring distribution and a great rugby brain.
And then they have a personal favourite of mine by the name of Sam Whitelock. Regardless of Brodie Retallick’s award I feel that Whitelock is the real diamond in the rough and I truly can’t understand his lack of recognition.
In my mind Whitelock is the best lock in world rugby. The reason is because he plays numbers 4 and 5 in one.
Mostly you would see one lock dedicated to the enforcer role and another as the Victor Matfield type of role. Whitelock acts as both almost faultlessly. He is the All Black lineout kingpin.
We then arrive at the fly-half state of affairs and I can’t believe it when I say it but herein potentially lies the All Black weakness.
It isn’t that their players are no good, but circumstances have given me reason to doubt this usual area of strength.
Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett are world class. Both of them. Both have great rugby brains and both have excellent recognition of space, opportunity and numbers. Both of them are also calm and collected.
But both of them suck at goalkicking.
The All Blacks may get into the pickle of having their World Cup dreams hanging in the balance of one simple kick at the posts. Will these two young pivots convert these shots? Of course they can, but will they?
When in form, Daniel Carter makes me feel like I have the skillset of an eight year old tighthead prop. He is Black Magic, but can he hold out for one more year without injury?
,
However, let us get real for a minute. The real reason why the All Blacks will win this tournament is because they kick. And by gum they kick magnificently!
The All Blacks are the only team in world rugby that understands that every type of kick can be used to aid an attacking game plan. We often see the men in black launching an up and under.
But they’re smart about it. Unlike South Africa, Ireland, England and Wales, the All Blacks only ever send one up in their half of the field. You would never see them performing it right on the halfway line.
Their primary, secondary and tertiary objective with this kick is to win the ball back in order to score tries. They don’t do it to win penalties which is exactly what the aforementioned teams do.
The All Blacks also enjoy dabbling in the art of the little chip and the little grubber kicks. Julian Savea again does this extremely well. But what has become a team favourite for these men has become the all important cross kick. They have employed this neat little trick for the past two years now.
Their secret to success is simple. They kick to regain possession of the ball with the intention to score tries and nothing else.
If they receive a penalty because of that then it’s all fine and dandy but the aim is to score a try because seven is better than three, or at least that’s what my math teacher taught me.
The tactical kicking game will be one of the most important facets of play during the World Cup because of northern hemisphere conditions. And it is here where the All Blacks have the clear edge on every other team in the world.
Australia can match the All Blacks in the running game, but they lose thoroughly in the kicking game stakes.
South Africa outgunned them in the running game the last time round in Johannesburg, but for the past three years they too have been hopelessly outgunned in the kicking game.
That’s the beauty of New Zealand. After 2011 they have invested in both the boot and the ball, neglecting neither.
This means that they can adapt as the game changes. When the running game just won’t work they will kick and visa-versa with the kicking game.
The shadow of death looms over the rugby world, Darkness has come for us all. Count McCaw reigns supreme in this cataclysmic setting.
Can anyone stop the All Blacks before it’s too late?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.