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Snake eyes: Is Melbourne's bad luck in the draft changing?

Roar Guru
5th December, 2014
43

Back-to-back picks in the top three of the national draft would appear to be striking it rich for any AFL club, a sure fire sign that a club was going to be able to build a future blue chip squad.

However looks can be deceiving. The history of consecutive top three picks has not been kind – as Melbourne know all too well.

If being drafted to Melbourne wasn’t considered tough enough for Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw, they now have history to contend against.

Think back to these infamous consecutive top three picks. 2013 saw GWS draft Tom Boyd and Josh Kelly at one and two only to see Boyd depart after one season.

2012 again saw GWS with consecutive picks and again fall foul of losing a player with Jono O’Rourke now departed the club.

2011 and GWS had the top three picks from the draft, number one pick Jon Patton has been injury plagued and number three pick Dom Tyson now runs around for these same Demons.

2010 saw Gold Coast with top three selections and while they have kept their top three in tact both second and third picks Harley Bennell and Sam Day have battled injury over four seasons in the league.

2009 and Melbourne fans know the curse of consecutive top three picks given that Tom Scully left the club for GWS and Jack Trengove is at a career crossroads due to injury.

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Even going further back to the last time that there were consecutive top three selections was the year 2000, when St Kilda grabbed twin forwards Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke.

Injuries to Koschitzke meant that duo was not able to deliver the Saints and elusive premiership.

Yes, the football gods have not been kind to clubs who slump to the point that they have two top-three selections. For that reason as much as the Petracca and Brayshaw duo looks list defining, history tells us a different story.

It is almost like you have to expect the football gods to step in given the controversial nature in which Melbourne got these two top-three picks via a consolation pick.

Alas though, Melbourne had no choice but to draft with these picks and took two of the most ready-made players in the draft.

Draft experts believed that these two were clearly the best midfielders in the draft. Hence, on the surface Melbourne appeared to do the right thing.

These picks may not be your typical top-three picks, but Petracca and Brayshaw can bide their time over the next two seasons while learning from veterans like Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince.

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If Melbourne can quickly turn its development trend around then a 2017 midfield boasting Jack Viney, Dom Tyson, Brayshaw and Petracca will cover most midfield bases.

Also helping this top three duo is father son selection Billy Stretch who Melbourne were able to acquire with pick 42.

This seems excellent value for a player who has shown elite traits at underage level. While Stretch knew his draft position going into draft day, one of his good mates Alex Neal-Bullen did not.

The two found out draft day that they would remain close for the immediate future with Neal-Bullen drafted a Demon at pick 40.

The problem for Melbourne now looking at both the short and long term though is in key position talent.

A number of their best tall players such as Jeremy Howe, Colin Garland, Tom McDonald, Jack Watts and Cameron Pederson are undersized and more suited to playing a third role in a team.

Melbourne will continue to have high hopes for Jesse Hogan but it is hard to imagine that Oscar McDonald is going to be the answer in the back half.

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The McDonald story is a nice one in that he joins big brother Tom and the two country lads will get the chance to grow and develop together and have the chance to use the strong bond they share on the footy field.

Still though for as good a story as it is the long term solution down back is still yet to be addressed by Melbourne.

The days are now ticking down to when Paul Roos involvement in the club ends. This draft helped set the future up, but still the anxious faces at Melbourne can only grow as that final Roos day approaches.

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