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Playoff predictor: Forecasting the final three weeks of the NFL

Aaron Rodgers. (AP Photo/Tom Lynn)
Expert
10th December, 2014
13

With three weeks remaining in the regular-season there are still 25 teams technically alive in the race for the playoffs.

The potential scenarios are endless and the tiebreakers painfully confusing. It’s the NFL at its best.

While some teams like Denver, New England, Arizona and Green Bay are looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the postseason there are other teams whose seasons balance on a knife-edge.

These next three weeks can be the difference between 8-8 and mediocrity or 11-5 and greatness.

Let’s take a look at how the final three weeks might play out.

NFC East
Eagles (9-4)
Games remaining: Cowboys (H), Redskins (A), Giants (A).

The Eagles missed out on a real opportunity to press their case for the playoffs on Sunday. A win against the Seahawks would have meant a huge step towards not only claiming the division but a first round bye.

Despite the loss, the task for the Eagles remains a simple one. Beat the Cowboys at home this week and they will only need one more win, against the Giants or Redskins, to clinch the NFC East.

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They already hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cowboys after a dominant win two weeks ago and just need to do the same thing again: run the ball, limit turnovers and keep the Dallas defence on the field.

Predicted record: 12-4.
Playoff bound? YES.

Cowboys (9-4)
Games remaining: Eagles (A), Colts (H), Redskins (A).

The Cowboys struggled mightily against the quick pace offense of the Eagles in a 33-10 loss on Thanksgiving two weeks ago and they might find things even tougher in the rematch in Philadelphia.

The Cowboys are in a difficult spot as they face a more difficult run home than the Eagles and trail Detroit in the wildcard race due to an inferior conference record.

They have been lauded this season for their dominant offensive line and running game and the improvement of their defence, but the reality is the Cowboys struggles at home (4-3) could cost them in the end.

If they beat the Eagles, but lose to the Colts then the NFC East could again come down to the final weekend.

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Predicted record: 11-5.

Playoff bound? NO.

Giants (4-9)
Games remaining: Redskins (H), Rams (A), Eagles (H).

The Giants have little left to play for in 2014, save for building a case for Odell Beckham Jr to be named Rookie of the Year. But the potential to upset the Eagles’ apple cart in a Week 17 match-up could provide Big Blue with all the motivation necessary.

After all, if you can’t join them, beat them. The storied Philadelphia-New York rivalry never lacks for drama and Giants players can still remember the “New Miracle at New Meadowlands”, when DeSean Jackson took a punt back for a game-winning touchdown as time expired.

Predicted record: 5-11.

Playoff bound? NO

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Redskins (3-10)
Games remaining: Giants (A), Eagles (H), Cowboys (H).

If 2014 served any purpose for the Redskins it may have revealed that the long-term franchise quarterback is not currently on their roster.

Whether it is Colt McCoy, RGIII or Kirk Cousins under centre in the final three weeks it shouldn’t matter. Washington will provide at least one more win for each of their division rivals and exit unceremoniously with a 3-13 record.

Predicted record: 3-13.

Playoff bound? NO

NFC North
Packers (10-3)
Games remaining: Bills (A), Buccaneer (A), Lions (H).

All roads to the NFC Championship game will lead through Green Bay. Isn’t that a scary prospect for any of the other 12 potential playoff teams? But it’s going to be the reality.

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The Packers juggernaut is showing no sign of stopping and they should crush the Bills, Bucs and Lions to end a stellar regular-season. They will then enjoy two playoff games in Green Bay, where the Packers are 7-0 this season and Aaron Rodgers has thrown 23 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Predicted record: 13-3

Playoff bound? YES
Lions (9-4)
Games remaining: Vikings (H), Bears (A), Packers (A).

Provided they keep winning, the Detroit Lions have a stranglehold on the sixth seed in the NFC. They have been good against the rest of the conference (7-2) this year and hold a two-game advantage over the Cowboys in that department.

Basically, the Lions hold their fate in their own hands – win against the Vikings and Bears and they are in the playoffs.

Beat the Packers at Lambeau as well and they will claim the division title. If they win only one of those games then they are in danger of letting the final playoff spot slip to Dallas.

But that is unlikely to occur. Calvin Johnson is back to his All-Pro best and this team looks ready to give the postseason a shake.

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Predicted record: 11-5.

Playoff bound? YES

Vikings (6-7)
Games remaining: Lions (A), Dolphins (A), Bears (H).

Believe it or not but the 6-7 Vikings are still mathematically alive in the race to the postseason.

Minnesota own the ninth seed after their win over the Jets in week 14 but would need to beat the Lions and Dolphins away and hope for other favourable results to even be within striking distance to qualify for the playoffs.

Unfortunately for fans of the Vikes, that unlikely dream will be dashed this week against a stout Lions front seven which terrorised rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in week 6.

Predicted record: 7-9.

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Playoff bound? NO.

Bears (5-8)
Games remaining: Saints (H), Lions (H), Vikings (A).

Without Brandon Marshall (ribs, lung) the Bears should struggle the rest of the way and won’t be able to match it with the Saints offense and Lions defence at home the next two weeks.

If they lose out, including a Week 17 match-up against the Vikings in Minnesota, the Bears will finish with their worst record in 10 years.

Predicted record: 5-11.

Playoff bound? NO.

NFC South
Falcons
(5-8)
Games remaining: Steelers (H), Saints (A), Panthers (H).
The Dirty Birds looked good in patches against the Packers on MNF, but their defence continues to give up big plays. Julio Jones was beasting for three-quarters before leaving with a hip injury.

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Even if he doesn’t miss a game the Falcons will have trouble against the Steelers, particularly when it comes to stopping Le’Veon Bell, and the Saints in New Orleans in what shapes as a division decider to remember.

Predicted record: 6-10.

Playoff bound? NO.

Saints (5-8)
Games remaining: Bears (A), Falcons (H), Buccaneer (A).

The Saints made Jonathan Stewart look like Bo Jackson during an atrocious 41-10 loss to the Panthers at home in Week 14.

After a performance like that, and at 5-8 in the worst division of football, many will be writing off their chances, but the Saints can run the table and salvage a miserable season with three winnable games to close the year.

Predicted record: 8-8.

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Playoff bound? YES.

Panthers (4-8-1)
Games remaining: Buccaneers (H), Browns (H), Falcons (A).

The Panthers have been a complete mystery this season. Before annihilating the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers hadn’t won a game since October 5.

They should win at least two more games before the end of the year, but it won’t be enough to clinch this substandard division.

Predicted record: 6-9-1.
Playoff bound? NO.

Buccaneers (2-11)
Games remaining: Panthers (A), Packers (H), Saints (H).

The Bucs gave up on making the playoffs a few months ago and should lose out from here to complete their worst season since 1986.

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Lovie Smith could use the games to evaluate the play of back-up quarterback Mike Glennon because it’s clear Josh McCown is not the man in Tampa.

Predicted record: 2-14.

Playoff bound? NO.

NFC West
Cardinals
(10-3)
Games remaining: Rams (A), Seahawks (H), 49ers (A).
The surprisingly good Cardinals could wind up 0-3 from their three remaining matches against division rivals this season.

Arizona just managed to edge the Chiefs at home on Sunday, but Drew Stanton might struggle to stay upright against the pass rush of the Rams and Seahawks.

I’ll give the Cards a win to end the season against the floundering 49ers, but the tough run home might mean they lose the division title and slip into the wildcard round.

Predicted record: 11-5.

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Playoff bound? YES

Seahawks (9-4)
Games remaining: 49ers (H), Cardinals (A), Rams (H).

Seattle are playing like a Super Bowl team again. Russell Wilson is running around making plays, Marshawn Lynch is just straight running over people and the defence has given up just 20 points in the last three games.

Seattle also face three straight division rivals to end the year, but they are better placed to win out and should claim the NFC West title for the second straight year.

Predicted record: 12-4.

Playoff bound? YES

49ers (7-6)
Games remaining: Seahawks (A), Chargers (H), Cardinals (H).

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What is going on in San Francisco? The word dysfunctional springs to mind. That offense is stagnant, Colin Kaepernick looks unhappy and Jim Harbaugh looks more manic than ever. The 49ers loss in Oakland on the weekend just about sunk any hopes they had of getting to the playoffs for the fourth straight season.

The next few weeks should be interesting though, if only to see who takes the fall for the shambolic season.

Predicted record: 8-8.

Playoff bound? NO.

Rams (6-7)
Games remaining: Cardinals (H), Giants (H), Seahawks (A).

The Rams are actually a pretty good team. They have beaten the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers this season and haven’t conceded a point in two hours of football.

The trouble is they play in the ridiculously competitive NFC West where a string of losses mid-season can be too much to overcome. The Rams should continue their purple patch of form and beat both the Cardinals and Giants before falling to the Seahawks in week 17.

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Predicted record: 8-8.

Playoff bound? NO.

AFC East
Patriots
(10-3)
Games remaining: Dolphins (H), Jets (A), Bills (H).

Remember when the Patriots were blown out on the road against the Chiefs? Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s time in New England was done. The Patriots as we knew them would never be the same again.

Well since that point the Patriots are 8-1 and have claimed their 12th straight 10-win season. They face three division rivals to round out the season and should take all three to the cleaners and finish with the top seed in the AFC.

Predicted record: 13-3.

Playoff bound? YES

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Dolphins (7-6)
Games remaining: Patriots (A), Vikings (H), Jets (H).

The Dolphins’ playoff hopes come down to their week 15 clash with New England. Beat the Patriots and they can then prepare for winnable games at home against the Vikings and Jets and possibly knock someone from the AFC North out of the playoff picture.

Lose against the Patriots and the Dolphins could wind up becoming another victim of the Bengals tie with the Panthers and the NFL’s inability to award a winner.

Predicted record: 9-7.

Playoff bound? NO.

Bills (7-6)
Games remaining: Packers (H), Raiders (A), Patriots (A).
The Bills pass rush and secondary made Peyton Manning look average in Week 14, but the Broncos still managed to get the win.

Buffalo appear to be a team building to something, however they will likely miss out on the playoffs in 2014 thanks to a horror final three weeks.

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The Bills play the best team in the NFC and the best in the AFC and in between will have to overcome a massive road-trip out to the west coast. The Bills should beat the Raiders but need to beat either the Packers or Patriots to remain in with a chance of qualify for the postseason for the first time since 1999.

Predicted record: 8-8.

Playoff bound? NO.

Jets (2-11)
Games remaining: Titans (A), Patriots (H), Dolphins (A)

The Jets season has been a train wreck and they have been out of playoff contention since early November.

The last few weeks are purely academic and there should be major changes in New York before next season starts. A new quarterback? Yes. A new coach? You betcha. A new general manager? Maybe.

A complete overhaul in New York cannot come soon enough. For the record the Jets will continue their shockingly inept play for three more weeks and finish 2-14, the worst record since they went 1-15 in 1996.

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Predicted record: 2-14.

Playoff bound? NO.

AFC North
Bengals
(8-4-1)
Games remaining: Browns (A), Broncos (H), Steelers (A).

This division could be the most interesting to watch over the next three weeks. The Bengals are still clinging to the lead despite giving up 25 points in the fourth quarter to fall to the Steelers at home in Week 14.

That was a crucial game for the Bengals because they face the Browns away, Broncos at home and then Steelers away to end the year. I have them winning only one of those games, which will mean they fall to third in the division but still maintain a wildcard spot. Thank god for that tie against the Panthers, eh?

Predicted record: 9-6-1.

Playoff bound? YES

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Steelers (8-5)
Games remaining: Falcons (A), Chiefs (H), Bengals (H).

Call me crazy but I like the Steelers to win out and claim the AFC North division. They are a confounding team to follow, they lost to the Jets, Browns and Bucs but thumped the Colts, Ravens and Bengals.

The development of Le’Veon Bell as an every down back and genuine match-winner only adds to the Steelers repertoire and they should ride his massive workload to three straight wins to round out the year.

Predicted record: 11-5.

Playoff bound? YES

Ravens (8-5)
Games remaining: Jaguars (H), Texans (A), Browns (H).

The Ravens have the easiest run home of all of the playoff contenders and should finish 11-5 alongside the Steelers and claim a wild-card spot. Aside from the Ray Rice scandal, there hasn’t been much said about the Ravens this season and they are quietly putting together a decent season.

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Predicted record: 11-5.

Playoff bound? YES

Browns (7-6)
Games remaining: Bengals (H), Panthers (A), Ravens (A).
The Browns will hand the keys to Johnny Manziel against the Bengals in week 15 and, barring injury, the diminutive quarterback should play the rest of the way.

The Browns, then led by Brian Hoyer, really needed to hold on against the Colts last week and now face an almost impossible task of qualifying in the AFC North. I have them struggling the rest of the way and finishing the season a disappointing 7-9.

Predicted record: 7-9.

Playoff bound? NO.

AFC South
Colts
(9-4)
Games remaining: Texans (H), Cowboys (A), Titans (A).

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The Colts haven’t lost a regular season game against the AFC South since Week 15, 2012 and that is not about to change over the last few weeks of this season.

The Colts should claim a playoff berth for the third straight year with a win over the Texans at home, but might struggle against the Cowboys in Dallas in week 16.

Predicted record: 11-5.

Playoff bound? YES

Texans (7-6)
Games remaining: Colts (A), Ravens (H), Jaguars (H).

“Is there anything JJ Watt can’t do?” It’s a question posed at least a dozen times this year as the monster defensive end out of Wisconsin has put together an MVP calibre campaign.

Despite Watt’s five touchdowns, 14.5 sacks and five fumble recoveries, he can’t win a game all by himself. Arian Foster is a top-five running back and DeAndre Hopkins one of the league’s best young receivers, however the team needs improvement at quarterback and in the secondary.

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The Texans will struggle against Andrew Luck and the Colts and a hungry Ravens team still in with a chance of making the playoffs before beating up on the poor Jaguars.

Predicted record: 8-8.

Playoff bound? NO.

Titans (2-11)
Games remaining: Jets (H), Jaguars (A), Colts (H).

Who knew the Tennessee Titans were so bad? Since Week 1 the Titans have won only one game, against the Jaguars, by two points, at home. Now that is bad.

The Titans turned to rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger at the mid-point of the season and while the LSU gunslinger does have a big arm he couldn’t keep the Titans in many games.

Mettenberger will miss the rest of the way with a shoulder problem, which is a shame because the Titans face their most winnable games over the next few weeks against the Jets and Jaguars.

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Predicted record: 4-12.

Playoff bound? NO.

Jaguars (2-11)
Games remaining: Ravens (A), Titans (H), Texans (A).

Jaguars’ players and their long-suffering fans can’t wait for 2014 to be over. Jacksonville hasn’t made it out of the division since 2007 and this season is looking like it might finish as bad as 2012 when they went 2-14. There is more misery on the horizon for the Jags with away games against the Ravens and Texans to finish the year.

Predicted record: 2-14.

Playoff bound? NO.

AFC West
Broncos
(10-3)
Games remaining: Chargers (A), Bengals (A), Raiders (H).
Peyton Manning appeared to be experimenting with a curious new game plan during the Broncos 24-17 win over the Bills in Week 14.

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Manning’s stat line looked more like that of brother Eli’s – he threw two interceptions and didn’t have a passing touchdown for the first time in 52 games.

But the Broncos still won as Manning handed the ball off to third and fourth string running backs Juwan Thompson and CJ Anderson.

The Bills are fifth at defending the pass and Manning wanted to send a message that his offense had more than one dimension.

Message received and now the Chargers, Bengals and Raiders will have to respect the run. The Broncos should win out and keep Manning in until the fourth quarter as they look to supplant the Patriots as the top seed in the AFC.

Predicted record: 13-3.

Playoff bound? YES

Chargers (8-5)
Games remaining: Broncos (H), 49ers (A), Chiefs (A).

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The Chargers may have the most difficult run home of all the teams still in with a chance of playing in the postseason. The Chargers will need to beat the Broncos at home to give themselves a chance before heading to San Francisco and Kansas City.

I don’t like those odds and I think they may win just one more game and miss out behind the three contenders in the AFC North.

Predicted record: 9-7.

Playoff bound? NO.

Chiefs
(7-6)
Games remaining: Raiders (H), Steelers (A), Chargers (H).

Three weeks ago the Chiefs were 7-3 and had just knocked off the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Then Kansas City did the unthinkable; they lost to the previously winless Oakland Raiders.

It was a game they had to win to remain in the conversation ahead of a tough few weeks. They get a chance at redemption against the Raiders this week but if they lose again they can start planning for 2015.

Predicted record: 8-8.

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Playoff bound? NO.

Raiders (2-11)
Games remaining: Chiefs (A), Bills (H), Broncos (A).

It was fun while it lasted but the Raiders’ days of winning games in 2014 are over. Once upon a time I foolishly predicted them to go 0-16 and match the 2008 Detroit Lions for the worst franchise ever.

Instead, they have won two games in three weeks against capable opposition. Never doubt the boys in silver and black. Lesson learned.

Despite the promising play the Raiders face the Chiefs and Broncos away and the relentless pass rush of the Buffalo Bills at home in the final weeks. Another win might be too big a mountain to climb for Oakland. But who knows, I have been known to be wrong before.

Predicted record: 2-14.

Playoff bound? NO.

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