It’s that time of year again where Hong Kong takes centre stage on the World Racing scene. Hong Kong’s quartet of world-renowned races consistently feature some of the best equine talent from Europe, North America, Japan, UAE, Australasia, and, of course the local contingent.

The biggest feature races include the Hong Kong Cup (2000m), Hong Kong Sprint (1200m), Champions Mile (1600m) and Hong Kong Vase (2400m).

It’s a veritable feast of top class international racing for any fan, but for us Australians, we have the bonus of it in our own time zone, and on a Sunday. It doesn’t get any better!

Fair warning: I have to admit that I have struggled to find winners in these races over a decent period. But you never give up on finally nailing something down and each year hands out its own lesson.

This preview isn’t a full on attempt at achieving that aim, more of an information piece that could lead us in the right direction.

With a bit of help from the superb Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) website, a really good place to start (and conclude) is with some historical statistics and precedents. Most of my own research is based on winners going back to 1999 – some 15 years.

Hong Kong Cup

This had been a pretty poor race for the local Hong Kong horses with only one winner between the years of 1999-2010. Since then, though, Hong Kong has provided the past three winners in California Memory (who won twice in a row) and Akeed Mofeed last year. The last Japanese horse to win was Agnes Digital in 2001.

16 of the past 20 winners have been aged either four, five or six years old, so we’re best to identify that age group. Interestingly, the last six favourites to win have drawn Barrier 6 or wider.

It looks a really tough race this year with at least five top local chances who all came through the Hong Kong Jockey Club Cup last start. Designs On Rome, California Memory, Blazing Speed, Military Attack and Endowing all put in meritorious performances there, and it would seem tactics and luck in running might be the only thing that will separate them on Sunday.

Of that Quintet, only California Memory is outside that winning age group mentioned. He is an eight-year-old but he has saluted in this race twice – each of the times he has attempted it!

Archimedes looks the best of the Japanese duo entered given he boasts two placings behind Just A Way who is world class and a recent Japan Cup runner up.

One of Europe’s best, Cirrus Des Aigles is back for a fourth tilt at this race. He placed last year and has improved his beaten margin each time. If he could bring his Northern Hemisphere best to Sha Tin he would undoubtedly win, but it seems he isn’t quite the same horse when he ventures here. A wet track would make all the difference but he is a definite chance regardless of the surface.

Farraaj isn’t in the same class as Cirrus Des Aigles, but he has a Group 3 placing at home and was very unlucky not to win the Group 1 Mackinnon at Flemington over the Melbourne Spring carnival.

That doesn’t necessarily mean he will measure up in this, given the poor quality of our home bred stayers, but he has proved himself on a similar track surface to what he should encounter in Hong Kong, and trainer Roger Varian is fast establishing himself as a trainer to watch.

Criterion is the sole Australian entrant and will most likely need a fair bit of rain to make his presence felt against World Class opposition.

Conclusion: This is probably the hardest of the four races to pick but if I had to stick my neck out I’d go with Designs on Rome who is the right age and might be ready to peak, from a barrier wider than six, as favourite or pretty close to it. Good historical precedents support this.

Hong Kong Sprint

This has been an excellent race for the local Sprinters who have won 11 of the last 15 editions. That dominance has been curtailed in the past 2 years but it has taken the superstar Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa to do so on on both occasions. There is nothing of his ilk this year either from Japan or outside of Hong Kong ,so it looks very likely that another local will take centre stage in 2014.

There are some very interesting barrier stats relative to winners of this race. Seven of the past eight winners have drawn between barriers 5-9 and no horse has won drawn inside five since the race reverted to 1200m (before 1999).

Four horses have managed to win this race twice since 1999, quite a revealing statistic. Local champion Lucky Nine could make it five this time around, though he would be the first to do so with a three-year gap between wins (last was 2011). His age of seven looks to be the only thing against him, given 13 of the last 15 winners have been aged either four or five years. No runner aged seven or over has won in that period, and no three-year-old has managed to either.

Only one of the Hong Kong contingent falls into the ideal age category and that is Flagship Shine. He was probably lucky to run third in the main HK sprint lead in (Jockey Club Sprint) which has provided six of the past 15 winners.

The replay of that race is well worth a watch, because at least three runners there were extremely unlucky not to finish a hell of a lot closer than they did.

Aerovelocity was arguably the most unfortunate of that trio absolutely stopped in his tracks twice in the straight. Lucky Nine flashed home late after gaining no clear run in the middle of the pack and Sterling City didn’t get a look in either from further back in the field.

The winner of that race, three-year-old Peniaphobia (No it’s a fear of poverty!) staged an incredible performance to win after being three wide (at best) throughout, but ironically the gloss was taken off the performance because of the severe interference to those mentioned.

The Japanese might struggle this year given 45-1 shot Snow Dragon won the big G1 Sprinter race there recently on turf, and all of his other seven career wins had been on dirt. He comes to Hong Kong in career best form and had Straight Girl only just behind him last start.

Little Gerda is the third of a Japanese trio and resumes off two wins at G3 and G2 level. She was 5.5L behind Straight Girl this time last year though so is a bit of a query at this class level.

Australian warhorse Buffering is definitely a chance here given his lethal fresh record and fighting on pace qualities. He has a victory over Lucky Nine so has no qualms from a class perspective. Whether he is quite as good this year compared to 12 months ago is the burning question. He will almost certainly need to be.

Gordon Lord Byron represents Ireland and he too can’t be discounted. He has finished fourth in the past two Hong Kong mile races at this carnival and also won a G1 race in Sydney during the Autumn.

He comes off a G1 1200m sprint win in England back in October and is suited coming in fresh. He would be even better suited on a wet track which is definitely his preference.

Conclusion: Given the barrier drawn I’m with AEROVELOCITY and FLAGSHIP SHINE. Both are locals and have drawn between five and nine which is great historically. Flagship Shine is better from an age point of view though, and almost certainly a better price.

Champions Mile

Of the four big races, this is the one that Hong Kong gallopers have made their own. They have won 11 of the past 15, and also the past eight editions.

That dominance looks very likely to continue in 2014 with Able Friend in stupendous form & Glorious Days (last years winner) resuming from a spell, as was the case in 2013. Both are likely to be heading the betting market and it will take something special to wrestle the title away from Hong Kong. Gold Fun and the classy veteran Ambitious Dragon round out a very strong Hong Kong quartet.

Four, five and six year olds have dominated this race winning 19 of the past 23 which is a telling statistic. Not so good for Glorious Days though given he is now a seven-year-old.

12 of the past 23 winners have drawn outside barrier 9 so don’t be afraid to entertain those from wide draws.

The form of the past four winners coming in has been 11th, 2nd, 8th and 4th so it could be handy to look for a horse set to peak, more-so than one that already has.

Japan hasn’t provided a winner since 2005 (Hat Trick) and have three entries this year. On face value it doesn’t look to be a strong representation though.

English horse Trade Storm looks to be the dark horse if any. He has improved out of sight the past 12 months or so, making the transition from handicapper to Group 1 winner in Canada and similarly place in the Breeders Cup Mile in North America. If he can bring that form to Hong Kong he is a winning chance for sure.

Conclusion: Able Friend looks the one to beat and the fact he has drawn wide is no reason to change that thinking.

Hong Kong Vase

Conversely this is a race where the Northern Hemisphere Europeans have had almost total dominance over the locals. Ironically it took Hong Kong roughie Dominant to end that stranglehold last year, coming in with some ‘putrid’ form to upset the more fancied continentals. He returns this year and has possibly worse credentials.

No Hong Kong horse had won in the previous 14 years, and the only non English or French horse to win in that period was the Japanese horse Stay Gold in 2001. He was seven years old, and is the only horse since 1994 to win this race aged above six.

This has been an excellent race for runners coming through the Breeders Cup Turf in North America, or the Japan Cup. Between them those two races have provided seven winners, but only one horse comes through either race this year. That horse is Flintshire and he is also the only French representative.

He comes off a placing in the Breeders Cup turf and a superb second in the Prix De L’Arc De Tromphe before that. Staying form doesn’t get any better than that, and he is clearly the horse to beat in this. He handles dry tracks with aplomb too so should get a surface to suit. Maxime Guyon is the only jockey that has ever ridden him, and comes to Hong Kong to continue that bond.

Red Cadeaux returns to Hong Kong for his fourth Vase. He won it in 2012, and has always been competitive in this race. It seems that age does not weary him given his recent Melbourne Cup second, but whether he is in the same form/class as Flintshire is unlikely.

A case can definitely be made for English three-year-old Snow Sky to be ridden by champion jockey Ryan Moore. That age group has won two of the past 11 editions, and he comes off a G1 placing in the English St. Leger behind Kingston Mill who was two lengths behind Flintshire in the Arc subsequently.

Best of the locals might be Willie Cazals (not forgetting Dominant). His last run here was quite good against top class locals, and he split Crackerjack King and Danedream as a three-year-old in Italy. He has two from two placings at this distance and one of those was behind Dominant.

German Horse Empoli has at least place claims on his best form, and ditto for Japanese horse Curren Mirotic.

Conclusion: This does seem Flintshire‘s race to lose. A repeat of his last two starts should be enough.