It’s easy to win the Big Bash League, ask the Sydney Sixers, the Brisbane Heat and the Perth Scorchers.
It’s hard to win the Big Bash League, ask the Melbourne Stars.
AUSTRALIA VS INDIA: DAY TWO LIVE SCORES
A team could could win every match in the league stage by ten wickets then have one bad day and go out at the semi-finals.
A team could lose more than half their matches in the league stage, just about sneak through to the semi-finals, play brilliantly twice and win the whole thing.
League-knock out cricket is easy. League-knock out cricket is hard.
Being good at league cricket requires squad depth, strong strategy and consistency.
Being good at knock out cricket requires match-winners, nerves and balls of steel.
Of course, the best teams are good at both. Winners often translate one into the other. But winners can fluke the latter and master the former, or fluke the former and master the latter, or, in fact, fluke it all.
The structure of the BBL hardly favours those who do best in the league stage. Finishing top of the league guarantees a home semi-final against the weakest qualifier, the fourth placed team, but that’s as far as the advantage goes.
In the Indian Premier League, since the 2011 season, either of the top two placed teams in the league can lose a qualifier match for the final and still have the opportunity to make the final via a second qualifier, against the winner of an Eliminator between the third and fourth placed sides.
In the Caribbean Premier League, the top placed team progresses straight to the final from the league before second and third play off for a place in the decider. The same thing happens in the RAM Slam T20 Challenge.
The IPL, CPL and RAM Slam favour those teams with squad depth, strong strategy and consistency more so than the BBL. But they also, like the BBL, demand match-winners, nerves and balls of steel.
A tournament in which the best team wins most of the time would be purely league based. Knock out matches dilute meritocracy. But we live in an age of knock-out sport. Of SuperBowlism, of grand finales and of winner-takes-all clashes. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Sport is entertainment.
But what it means is that the best cricket team may not win this season’s Big Bash League.
Who is going to win the BBL?
Well, who isn’t?
I don’t like the look of Brisbane Heat who I reckon will struggle away from the pace of the Gabba with a one-dimensional bowling attack and with a batting order lacking depth and firepower.
I can’t see last season’s champions the Perth Scorchers making it through the league stage either. They often come to form more than the sum of their parts but the competition has improved and intensified.
Perennial strugglers Sydney Thunder will fare better than last season but won’t make it through too.
The Adelaide Strikers also look vulnerable but if they can squeeze through to the semi finals they have the match-winners to succeed in knock-out matches; they could battle with the Sydney Sixers for a semi-final spot, who will need Dwayne Smith to bolster a flimsy batting order.
Both Melbourne sides, as always, look very strong, but the Renegades in particular will be hit by international absentees as the season progresses and the Stars will miss Brad Hodge if Kevin Pietersen can’t rediscover his genius.
My favourites, however, are the Hobart Hurricanes. They’ve got a relatively young and unknown squad but they have the skills, versatility and match-winners to do well in the league stage and then in the knock outs.
Freddie Wilde is a freelance T20 cricket journalist. You can follow him on Twitter @fwildecricket
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