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Ireland are in a good place for the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Their pool is probably the easiest of the four, with two second-tier teams in Canada and Romania, while Italy and France are two of the most preferable top-tier teams.
In Joe Schmidt, Ireland have the best coach in the world, a brilliant strategist and master technician who has given them a coherent, detailed game plan.
His half-time analysis has proven to be the difference between Ireland winning and losing in recent games. The most recent November series showed that no matter how badly Ireland are hit by injuries, Schmidt has the ability to devise a game plan which gets the most out of the players available to him, and beat some of the top teams in the world.
While Ireland have a group of genuinely world-class players and a good overall squad, their strength in depth is not the same as that of New Zealand, South Africa, France, or England. However Schmidt has done a lot of positive work in this area.
A significant improvement in Ireland since Schmidt took over is their composure to close out tight games against top-level teams. This composure, or lack thereof, cost them the game against New Zealand in the 2013 November series. Since then, they have closed out important games against France, South Africa, and Australia where the outcome of the game was still hanging in the balance well into the second half.
Ireland’s best starting XV is not necessarily the best in the world, but it’s definitely good enough for them to be considered World Cup contenders. At this moment in time, Conor Murray and Jonny Sexton is the form half pairing in world rugby.
If Ireland are to have a real chance of making it to a semi-final or even beyond, they will need Cian Healy, Paul O’Connell, Sean O’Brien, Murray, Sexton, and Rob Kearney to be fit. While the other players in Ireland’s squad are also highly important, these six players are the most vital cogs.
Worryingly, however, Ireland have been badly hit by injury in recent times, with as many as 18 players injured in the most recent November series. Whether this is due to bad luck or poor conditioning is irrelevant; if Ireland have this many players injured going into, or even during the World Cup, their chances of getting beyond the quarter-finals are slim.
In terms of personnel, there are some changes which could be made. It appears that Gordon D’Arcy is finally slowing down, and while he has been an excellent servant to Irish rugby, he was off the pace in his most recent outings in green. There are alternatives available, but who could force their way into the 12 jersey depends on injury and balance in the centre partnership.
Robbie Henshaw’s excellent performances in the most recent November series were a huge positive. He passes well off both hands, as demonstrated in the Australia game where he put Simon Zebo, Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney into space really well, getting them outside the Australian defence. He makes good decisions in both defence and attack, and brings a physical, battering-ram dimension to Ireland’s midfield which they have not possessed in recent years. His background in Gaelic football has given him a good kicking and aerial skillset. It looks like he will have the 13 jersey nailed down for many years to come, even if he still has plenty of time and room for improvement.
The only question that remains is who should partner him at 12, or more importantly who would best complement what he brings to the game. Luke Marshall has performed really well for Ireland and he brings a lot of enthusiasm, but he is injury prone, which puts serious uncertainty over his future as a professional rugby player.
Denis Hurley has been starting at 12 for Munster this season, but he is not likely to be selected in that position for Ireland, by virtue of being a converted fullback, while it appears that Dave McSharry of Connacht is not quite international standard. Ian Madigan plays most of his rugby for Leinster at 12 in order to accommodate Jimmy Gopperth, but it is clear that Schmidt views Madigan as out-half backup for Sexton. Stuart McCloskey has done well to break into Ulster’s starting XV recently, but he is too similar to Henshaw.
Stuart Olding, also of Ulster, looks to be the best choice to partner Henshaw. As well as having an incisive, gliding style of running, Olding is an excellent second-five-eighth-type passer who brings his outside backs into the games at different angles. Olding and Henshaw together could be a perfectly-balanced ‘big and little’ combination. However, it must be noted that Olding has also suffered several concussions lately.
A favourable fixture list in next year’s Six Nations Championship, with home games against England and France, gives Ireland a good chance to build momentum going into the World Cup. However, a factor which may be detrimental to Ireland’s success at the World Cup is the high number of warm-up games they have to play before the competition even starts.
Their warm-up schedule consists of two games against Wales, one against England, and one against Scotland. At the last World Cup, Ireland had the same number of international warm-up games, and also a midweek game against Connacht. It was noticeable in their quarter-final loss to Wales in that tournament that Ireland’s players were fatigued. However, fatigue was not the only reason why Ireland lost that game.
Ireland’s game plan at the last World Cup, which consisted entirely of giving the ball to either Stephen Ferris or O’Brien to get over the gain line, was too one-dimensional and the Welsh management had figured out a way of negating it. The other major factor which contributed to Ireland losing that game was that Wales played at a much higher intensity than Ireland.
Ireland will have a much more varied game plan at the 2015 World Cup, but their punishing schedule before the tournament even starts may hinder more than help them. It will be interesting to see how Schmidt approaches those warm-up games in terms of team selections.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.