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Another four-year cycle will conclude in 2015 with the Rugby World Cup. For the three southern hemisphere teams, this always marks a time where their squads change due to the exodus of current players to foreign shores.
Australia and New Zealand have a policy of only selecting locally-based players for their national teams.
South Africa will select a handful of foreign based players. Does this mean, come 2016 Australia and New Zealand will be impacted more than South Africa by the player exodus and retirements?
To figure this out, lets look at the squads, and also try do a bit of crystal gazing. I admit my knowledge may be lacking and may not know all the players, that’s why I want to put this question out there.
My predicted Rugby World Cup squads
South Africa
Willie le Roux, Johan Goosen*
JP Pieterson, Cornel Hendricks, Brian Habana*, Seobela Senatla
Damian Dallende, Jan Serfontein, Frans Steyn
Handre Pollard, Pat Lambie, Morne Steyn*
Fourie du Preez*, Ruan Pienaar*, Coubous Reinach
Duan Vermeerlen, Schalk Burger
Willem Alberts, Oupa Mohojo
Francios Louw*, Marcel Coetzee
Victor Matfiled, Pieter Steph du Toit
Eben Etzebeth, Flip vd Merwe, Lood de Jaager
Beast Mtawarira, Marcel vd Merwe, Trevor Nykane
Bismark du Plesis, Adrian Strauss, Schalk Britz*
Jannie du Plesis, Frans Malherbe, Coenie Oostehuisen
*= foreign based
After the 2015 Rugby World Cup, I predict Fourie du Preez, Schalk Burger, Victor Matfield and Schalk Britz to retire.
In 2016, I predict Thomas du Toit to play for the Springboks. du Toit is a man mountain of a loose head prop who represented South Africa in their U20 tournament this year as well as the Sharks in the S15. Big things are expected from this guy.
Malcolm Marx, also a large man for a 20-year-old hooker at 119kg. Built like Bismark du Plesis only bigger. Very mobile, he also played in the SAU20 team and represented the Lions at S15.
He has been unlucky with injuries in 2014 though.
Jessie Kriel, can the Blue Bulls centre/fullback kick on from the promise he has shown. He also played for the SAU20 team and represented the Bulls at S15.
So all in all, I predict that in 2016 the Springboks to be able to pick from most of their 2015 players and add a few young bright prospects.
Australia will lose a number of players overseas like James Horwill and Sekope Kepu. There are also rumours of some other high profile players target by foreign clubs. However, looking at the current Australian squad, the players all look relatively young. So if they can retain most of them, I would expect Australia to be strong in 2016.
The same can’t be said for New Zealand, with players like Dan Carter going overseas and others like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Conrad Smith, Mau Nonu likely to retire.
As well as a host of others to probably take up foreign contracts, my general feeling is that New Zealand will be the hardest hit of the three southern teams. New Zealand rugby does always have depth, and I am sure will bounce back, but I expect their squad to change the most post World cup.
So all in all, with Australia having a fairly youthful squad and South Africa continuing to select foreign based players, I expect New Zealand to experience the biggest disruption post World Cup.
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