Scotland have improved in leaps and bounds recently, but a tough Rugby World Cup pool with South Africa and Samoa means that a quarter-final with England or Australia is on the cards.
Scotland have had to endure some awful coaches over the last few years, but Vern Cotter has been an excellent find as head coach.
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Scotland now have a competent coach who has given them a clearly-defined game plan predicated on accuracy, a high tempo, and offloading out of contact.
They play a style of rugby which closely resembles the style that Clermont Auvergne played under Cotter, as well as what the style that the Glasgow Warriors are currently playing under Gregor Townsend.
Scotland’s back play is much more varied and intelligent, and is a level above the poor passing, lateral running, and squandering of try-scoring opportunities which were trademarks of their performances before Cotter’s appointment.
Scotland no longer rely on cynical back row play to compete with good teams.
Scotland’s recent improvements have been helped in part by Cotter’s introduction of enthusiastic young players like Jonny Gray, Adam Ashe, Finn Russell, and Mark Bennett, as well as the return to form of established internationals like Ross Ford, Richie Gray, Greig Laidlaw, and Stuart Hogg.
While Scotland’s performances have improved since Cotter took over, their recent game against an experimental New Zealand team comprised largely of second and third-choice players showed that some of their old flaws. This includes a high number of missed tackles and an inability to commit opposition defenders in attack.
Next year’s Six Nations Championship will be a difficult one for Scotland, with difficult away games against England and France, but it will give them more time to grow accustomed to Cotter’s coaching methods and game plan.
Although Scotland have a southern hemisphere powerhouse in their pool, they will likely progress to the quarter-finals, provided that they play with enough structure in their pool game against Samoa.
Italy’s chances of getting out of their pool at next year’s World Cup are quite slim, with a well coached Ireland team and a potentially dangerous France team in their pool.
Jacques Brunel was brought in as head coach after the last World Cup as Nick Mallett had taken them as far as he could. Brunel has an impressive CV, winning the Top 14 with Perpignan in 2009, and reaching the final the following season.
Italy have a decent forward pack, who have the technical ability in the set-pieces as well as the aggression to compete with the top teams, with real class players in Alessandro Zanni and Sergio Parisse in the back row.
However, it is behind the scrum that they have struggled, especially at half-back. None of the scrum-halves available to Italy at this moment in time have both the necessary big-game temperament and game management that is required to win games regularly at Test level.
Since the retirement of Diego Dominguez, Italy have lacked an international-standard out-half, resorting to poaching southern hemisphere journeymen or underage talents with Italian ancestry.
However, the most recent of these, Kelly Haimona, has proven to be a good goal-kicker with an eye for a gap.
He is now most likely ahead of Luciano Orquera in the pecking order for the Italian jersey.
Orquera has played well in fits and starts over the last few years, most noticeably in Italy’s shock victory over France in the 2013 Six Nations Championship. His inconsistency was best characterised by putting in an awful performance the following week against Scotland, with his team losing 34-10.
Despite having two quality full-backs in Andrea Masi and Luke McLean, Italy have had to make do in recent times with one-paced, bosh-merchant centres, as well as mundane players on the wing.
However, with the discovery of Michele Campagnaro and Leonardo Sarto, they now have a footballing outside centre and a winger who possesses real pace as well as excellent footwork.
It is very difficult to see how Italy have actually progressed since their introduction to the Six Nations Championship, as they are still getting beaten by margins of twenty points or more on a regular basis by most of the other teams in that tournament, one-off victories over France and Ireland aside.
They are still struggling to put multiple decent attacking phases together, which, along with slow ruck ball, means that they don’t ask too many questions of the opposition defence. Their defensive shape is not good, and they are quite slow to reorganise when a defensive lapse occurs.
A less-than-favourable fixture list in next year’s Six Nations Championship means they will struggle to win any of their games, and take any good form into the World Cup. Progressing beyond the pool stages therefore seems unlikely, unless France produce one of their characteristic indifferent performances against Italy.
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