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A difficult pool and recent flat performances mean that Wales’ prospects at next year’s Rugby World Cup do not look good.
The term ‘Warrenball’ is used to describe the game plan which Warren Gatland employs with Wales. This game plan consists of using the boot of their out-half, either Rhys Priestland or Dan Biggar (or Leigh Halfpenny if it’s a kick return), to kick for territory and get a set-piece in the opposition half.
>> 2015 Rugby World Cup fixtures
Once they have a foothold in an advantageous position on the field, they get quick ball from their set-pieces into the hands of either Jamie Roberts or Jonathan Davies, or George North in off his wing, and bash their way over the gain line in midfield to generate momentum.
Once they have this momentum, they move the ball directly towards one touchline. Then they work their way towards the other touchline in small increments through their tight forwards or Taulupe Faletau if they are going in close, through their gigantic three-quarter line if they are going a bit wider out from the ruck.
Otherwise they do so through snipes from Mike Philips or Rhys Webb at scrum-half, while intermittently working the short side through their scrum-half or Faletau.
Once they have dragged in defenders and created space using these tactics, then they will fling the ball wide to North or Alex Cuthbert on the wings, both of whom are excellent finishers.
It’s not a particularly complex game plan, but it has proved to be highly successful. And while you can never accuse Gatland of overcomplicating matters, you can’t argue with the fact that he wins silverware everywhere he goes.
Back in 2012 and 2013 (when Wales were winning Six Nations trophies), terms such as ‘pragmatic’ and ‘efficient’ were being used by the media to describe their style of play, whereas now it is considered ‘unimaginative’ or ‘over simplistic’.
What most people seem to forget about rugby is that a team doesn’t need to do anything complex to win games.
Once a team are executing a game plan which is well-coached, accurate, where every player has a clear understanding of their role, where the intensity levels are high enough (and in Wales’ case, where they are playing at a quick pace), and where very few errors are made, then they are very difficult to stop.
Part of what has made these tactics so successful for Gatland in the last few years is his introduction of several new faces into the Welsh team during, or just before, the last World Cup.
Wales had been floundering for two years before that tournament began, so Gatland decided that change was needed.
He brought in a completely new back row in the shape of Dan Lydiate, Sam Warbuton, and Taulupe Faletau, a unit who went from being relatively unknown to one of the best in the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
He dropped Stephen Jones for Priestland, an out-half who had been performing woefully at club level for the Scarlets, but became one of the stars of the tournament.
He moved Jonathan Davies one position out to 13, and played him alongside Roberts to form a devastating centre partnership. He introduced the talented George North on the wing while moving Halfpenny from the wing to fullback at the expense of Lee Byrne, a decision which was vindicated by Halfpenny going on to become one of the best fullbacks in Europe.
Gatland reaped the rewards of throwing young players in the deep end as Wales made it to the semi-final of the World Cup, and probably would have made it to the final if not for a highly controversial, questionable red card decision by referee Alain Rolland.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.