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Melbourne Victory are strong favourites to win against Newcastle Jets at home this week, but if history between these two sides is anything to go by, then it won’t be an easy three points for Melbourne tonight. Join The Roar from 7:45pm AEDT for full live blog coverage.
Whenever these two teams meet, no matter the form either is in, the contest is always an exhilarating one, and it is often very difficult to separate the two sides. So far in 2014, Victory have played Newcastle three times, and in all three encounters the scores have been locked at full-time, and all have been score draws.
Newcastle’s horrible 14-15 campaign seemed to have finally taken a turn last week when the Jets outplayed Adelaide United for large patches of the match, and deservedly won the game 2-1 thanks to a late Jeronimo Newmann strike.
Though most impressively for the Jets was Phil Stubbins’ tinkering with his tactics to ensure that Newcastle had the right answer to the Reds’ free-flowing, possession-aggressive style of football.
Stubbins played with a back three – Madaschi at the centre with Neville and Welsh either side – and two wing backs, allowing more freedom further up the park for Griffiths and Carney, but it was the impressive displays from young defenders’ Hoole and Virgili that stole the show and gave the Jets’ the edge they needed against arguably the best side in the competition.
Caravella was also instrumental in midfield, creating space out of nowhere with good positioning and spatial awareness.
Melbourne Victory, on the other hand, head into the match in a season slump, as they come off their first defeat of the season, and a 3-3 draw with Sydney prior to that.
While this may not seem like a crisis; the current position they’re in is not ideal for Premiership contenders, with Perth surging ahead six points clear after Round 11.
And to make matters worse, Melbourne will be missing captain Mark Milligan and defender Matthieu Delpierre, both of whom are key players in midfield and defence respectively.
While Victory have more than enough depth to deal with the absentees, Kevin Muscat will be looking to gain maximum points from this outing to ensure Perth aren’t too far gone at the top of the table before New Years, and without two key players, they will be lacking a certain edge.
Victory seems to be heavily reliant upon Gui Finkler in the creative midfield position. Without the gifted playmaker, Melbourne has lacked inspiration in the attacking half, despite boasting the likes of Berisha and Barbarouses in the front third.
Victory’s chances of defeating Newcastle may rest with Gui, especially as the Jets begin to come to life this season, though whether Gui starts or not is a chance that Muscat may not want to take.
For Newcastle, their best chances of winning seems to depend more on defence than attack. With 17 goals conceded in second halves this season, Phil Stubbins will look to bolster his defence against an extremely strong Melbourne front-line.
The Jets have no issues in attack, with the likes of Griffiths, Carney, Hoole and Montano all combining well, so while coming in second favourites to win, they will have a chance if the backline can hold out for 90 minutes.
Prediction:
Melbourne to edge this one, but it will be close. 3-2 to Victory.
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