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Despite a recent dip in form, England have the requisite qualities to make it to the latter stages of the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
England’s last World Cup was an absolute disaster, characterised by off-field scandal and woeful on-field performances. Martin Johnson was quickly removed as head coach afterwards, and replaced by Stuart Lancaster on a short-term basis, a coach who those outside of England knew very little about.
>> 2015 Rugby World Cup fixtures
This turned out to be a sensible appointment by the RFU. England’s problems at the last World Cup could be largely attributed to the players’ arrogance and the celebrity culture which had developed around them. England needed a coach who had a good understanding of English rugby, an understanding which Lancaster had in abundance with his background of being heavily involved in English academy systems and English domestic league teams.
The English team needed a return to more traditional, modest English values. Lancaster was the right person to do this, as demonstrated by the culture he has developed in the English camp, a culture which is based on humility, a strong work ethic, and a collective focus.
In terms of tactics, Lancaster and his coaching ticket returned to the traditional English strengths of dominant set-pieces, a good kicking and territory game, and an excellent defence.
Their first Six Nations Championship after the last World Cup was never going to be pretty, and their performances in that championship turned out to be awful spectacles with very little entertainment value; an average rugby-by-numbers game plan executed by a team which contained some mediocre players.
However, what Lancaster was actually doing was going back to basics and building his squad from the ground up. By the end of that tournament they had improved, beating Ireland comprehensively in their final game. They then went on to play a three-test June series against South Africa where, again, their performances improved steadily enough to earn a draw in the third Test.
England’s performances improved as each series went on, one of the highlights being their win over New Zealand in the 2012 November series. Their players, especially their forwards, are cohesive and well-drilled, and Owen Farrell at 10 suits their territorial game perfectly, as well as some of their players, such as Harlequins full-back Mike Brown, bringing their good club form into the national set-up.
Over the last few seasons, they have had one of the best defences in international rugby. Their intensity and accuracy in what they do have improved incrementally, particularly in their most recent Six Nations performances and their following June series against New Zealand.
Their performances in the first Test and the first 40 minutes of the second Test of that series were actually good enough to beat New Zealand. However, they fell away thereafter, being beaten badly in the third Test, although this drop in performance levels can be attributed to end-of-season fatigue.
To his credit, Lancaster has also been trying to add different attacking elements to England’s game, such as their new backline plays which saw their wingers being brought into midfield in that June series against New Zealand.
However, England’s performances have regressed in the most recent November series. They were noticeably off the pace in their first game against a below-par New Zealand. They were out-muscled in their second game against South Africa.
Lancaster then decided to rotate his squad against Samoa, controversially dropping Farrell for George Ford. England put in a disjointed performance in that game, which tends to happen when wholesale changes are made to a team.
For their final game of the series against Australia, Lancaster reverted back to his best starting XV, although he decided to keep Ford at 10. England finished their November series on a high, destroying Australia at scrum-time to earn an emphatic win.
Lancaster’s selection policies have been praised and criticised in equal in equal measure. He has had a high turnover of players in all positions, giving several players and combinations more than one game to show their worth.
It has been a useful policy in some ways, such as determining that England’s most effective second row combination is Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes, or by determining that their most well-balanced back row is: Tom Wood at 6, Chris Robshaw at 7, and Billy Vunipola at 8.
However, in other positions, Lancaster’s selection policy has not worked quite as well. England’s centre combination and wingers seem to change every series, with no apparent ‘starting’ players in either area. Although the revolving door policy has been going on at centre long before Lancaster took over, that does not excuse the fact that Lancaster does not seem to know who his starting centres or back three are.
Of all the combinations that they could use at centre, the most-balanced option would appear to be Billy Twelvetrees at 12, and Manu Tuilagi at 13. Tuilagi is a very effective dynamic player who can bash his way in behind any defence.
Twelvetrees is a second-five-eighth-type inside centre who can put his outside backs into space to great effect, while also having a good eye for a gap himself. The problem with Twelvetrees is that since he began playing for England, he seems to spend more time looking for contact.
Whether it’s something the English management have instructed him to do so or whether it’s something he thinks that they want him to do is irrelevant. Looking to run into people does not play to his strengths.
Another factor which comes into play regarding England’s centres is the recent conversion of Sam Burgess to rugby union. If Burgess can adapt to union properly, he would be the ideal choice at 12, bringing a useful combination of skill and brutish physicality to England’s game.
However, none of the other centres that Lancaster has tried so far would complement what he brings to the game. The best option outside him would probably be the London Wasps centre, Elliot Daly.
Daly hasn’t been given any real chance by the English management to show what he can do. This is puzzling, as he has the line-breaking ability and pace to get on the outside shoulder of his opposite number, qualities which the English backline could really use.
As for the back three, the list of wingers that Lancaster has used since he took over is too long to even consider naming every player on it.
It is obvious that Brown is the best choice at fullback by some distance, but who Lancaster has in mind to start either side of him is unclear.
The English management don’t seem to have much time for Chris Ashton, probably because of his swan-diving antics and poor tackling. Most recently, the most impressive options have been Jonny May and Marland Yarde.
May has been criticised by the English media for poor defence, but he possesses out-and-out winger’s pace (as demonstrated by his try against New Zealand in the most recent November series, where he burned both Conrad Smith and Israel Dagg on the outside), which, again, is something that England’s backline badly needs. Yarde would complement May well on the other wing, being a more physical player who is highly effective when having a run at the opposition 10 or 12.
One of the main problems with Lancaster’s selection policies in the backline, and in general, is that they are quite bottom up. That is to say that Lancaster recognises shortcomings in his team, but decides to try and fix these shortcomings by just throwing a different player in.
For example, Lancaster has recognised that England have been short on creativity out wide, and he attempted to fix this shortcoming by selecting Kyle Eastmond, a creative centre, at 12 in England’s most recent June and November series.
This type of selection policy is not going to provide any sort of solution. A coach should devise the game plan and tactics first, and then select the players to execute those game plan and tactics.
Therefore, if Lancaster wants England to be a more creative team, he and his coaching ticket need to put a greater emphasis on creativity in his team talks and training drills. But if he wants his centres to act as auxiliary back rowers and crash it up the middle, then he should just select Barritt at 12 and Tuilagi at 13, as this is the combination which is best suited to that tactic.
Another problem for England has been Owen Farrell’s recent drop in form, and the realisation that the English management have only come to now that Farrell may not in fact be good enough to guide England to a World Cup.
After Farrell’s poor performance against South Africa, he was dropped for George Ford in the hope that he would solve England’s woes, which is a change worth considering, but ten months out from the World Cup is not the time to start reconsidering who your first-choice fly-half is.
Despite the many criticisms which England received during the November series, they actually have a decent chance of topping their pool, or at the very least progressing as runners-up. England’s scrum dominance means that they have a good chance of beating Australia, despite Australia’s excellent back play, as England have developed a significant psychological edge over the Wallabies over the last few years.
The outcome of that game depends largely on how much progress Australia can make in tight with limited games under a new coach between now and the World Cup.
As for England’s pool game against Wales, the most important factor in games between England and Wales over the last two years seems to have been home advantage, so England should come away with a win.
If England can rediscover their early-2014 form, and take the positives from their recent demolition of Australia, then they should be genuine World Cup contenders. A decent fixture list in next year’s Six Nations Championship with a home game against France means that a feel-good factor can be generated in Twickenham before the World Cup even begins.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.