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The free spending, millionaire owners of the Top 14 in France are eroding the financial viability of rugby union in the Southern Hemisphere.
And if the English Premiership is allowed to follow suit and abolish their salary cap, then the results could be dire for rugby on this side of the world.
While news reverberated around the rugby world of Dan Carter’s big money move to Racing Metro, it shocked nobody when the All Black star admitted a major reason for the move was the money.
And who could blame him? Nobody will begrudge Carter the chance to help set himself and his young family up, especially given that Carter has already given the best years of his career to the Crusaders and his country.
But what happens when the next Dan Carter comes through the system, but realises he can earn a significant amount more if he played in Europe and relinquishes his claim on an All Black spot? Is the draw of that All Black jersey going to be enough to keep him in New Zealand?
Perhaps it will. I will not pretend to understand the ingrained cultural significance or pressure to desire an All Blacks cap above anything else.
But what about Australian players? Although I’m not suggesting the gold jersey has any less significance than an All Black jersey, the relevance of the Wallabies is constantly being undermined by the success of the other football codes.
A much smaller proportion of Australian kids dream of Wallabies than New Zealanders of All Blacks.
Former England hooker Brian Moore commented on this issue in his column, and even went as far to suggest that Top 14 clubs are in the process of ruining world rugby.
He proposed that the French clubs are driving up the market value of players so much that the ARU and New Zealand Rugby Union are bankrupting themselves in an attempt to retain their stars.
And despite their financial outlay, the exodus has already started.
Adam Ashley-Cooper and Sekope Kepu have both recently proposed they will leave for France, joining stars like Matt Giteau. More are rumoured to join them, including Reds scrum-half Will Genia and even star code-hopper, Israel Folau.
Moore suggested that world rugby is currently under pressure to give funds to the game in New Zealand and Australia to stop this drain of players, which in turn reduces the amount of cash available for developing the game in other countries.
And with James Horwill leaving the Reds to join English club Harlequins, imagine how large the exodus could be if there was no salary cap in England.
That’s precisely the future Ed Griffiths, CEO of Saracens rugby, envisages. Griffiths recently proposed that the recently raised salary cap of £5.5million should be abolished so that teams in England can be allowed to compete financially with their counterparts across the Channel.
Griffiths also has said that there are other clubs in the English Premiership who share his view, purportedly Bath, Leicester, Northampton and Championship team Bristol, although there is a conspicuous lack of public statements to this effect from these teams. The remaining clubs are understood to be fiercely opposed.
The salary cap was initially formulated to provide some financial stability to the English clubs as they struggled with the demands of professionalism. Griffiths argues that era is over, but there is another beneficial byproduct of the salary cap.
The cap tends to force clubs to develop homegrown talent as opposed to buying Southern Hemisphere players. And this has the knock on effect of providing more players for the national team – something the French side, through the Top 14, is sorely lacking.
For example, Toulon’s 2014-15 squad only has 17 of 42 players (41%) eligible for the French national team. A similar team in England, Northampton Saints has 29 of their 37 players (78%) eligible for England. Across the teams, 56 per cent of players in the Top 14 are French eligible, while 61 per cent of players in the English Premiership can play for England.
As English soccer fans will attest, having a world class Premier League filled with the world’s top talent is great to watch. However, it doesn’t help in World Cups, other than giving supporters a chance to cheer on their clubs best players when England invariably gets knocked out early.
So what can be done?
World rugby will either have to impose an international salary cap, which will allow players to stay in their own leagues, or national bodies will have to relax restrictions on players playing club rugby outside of their own country being ineligible for national team selection.
This could, in fact, be the next stage of a transition from an internationally focused sport to a domestic, club-focused sport, and help increase the payments and conditions for the players. However, this could also have dire consequences for the quality of Southern Hemisphere domestic competitions, and although international competition will survive, it will be in a significantly altered format.
But what will happen if the European salary caps continue to rise – or are abolished completely?
I fear a dystopian future, where rugby is only seriously played by clubs in France and England. New Zealand will go the same way as the smaller Pacific Islands and simply become a farm for European club scouts.
Perhaps New Zealand’s NPC will survive, but only aligned to these European super clubs, robbed of their top talent. Rugby in Australia will finally die off, succumbing to financial ruin and the relentless march of rugby league.
And meaningful international rugby will become something that fans reminisce about in bars or read about on the internet.
An extreme, over the top prediction? Probably. But would you really want to run the risk?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.