The Australian National Road Championship course is the deciding factor on who wins any cycling race, but this circuit (in use since 2012, with only minor alterations) has proven to be open to all except the pure sprinters in the past.
Nonetheless, the closest it has been to a sprint was when Orica-GreenEDGE controlled the race throughout and only the early breakaway of Luke Durbridge survived and behind a bunch sprint between about 15 to 20 riders ended up with Matthews taking second.
Other years have been decided by three-up sprints, with Simon Gerrans victorious in both, and Richie Porte finishing third in each.
One piece of news has irrevocably changed the face of the road race this year – the injury of Simon Gerrans. Not only because the previous champion and pre-eminent favourite is not at the starting line, but because of what that absence will mean for how the race plays out. Orica-GreenEDGE are still the most important team in the race, and will most likely take the lead in determining the pace and strategy of the race. So what is their best chance of winning?
They have the best sprinter in Caleb Ewan, but he is also the youngest guy in the race, and Matt White has said specifically that he doesn’t want to put pressure on him too early. Ewan has proved himself over this type of hilly terrain, most notably with a silver medal in the Under-23 world championships only a few months ago.
I think he’ll be there with a group of 15 to 20 at the finish, and he’ll win a sprint from that group. The trick for Orica-GreenEDGE, if they put all their eggs in this basket, will be stopping the attackers from building up too big a gap by chasing them down. To my mind this will be too tough for them to do, particularly as none of the other teams will have any incentive to help them as they know they’ll be dragging Ewan to a win.
In addition, the attackers will cooperate better together knowing that there is a big group coming after them, rather than engaging in cat and mouse tactics.
The other way of dealing with pesky attackers is to mark their moves with a rider (e.g. Simon Clarke, Cameron Meyer) that just sits on the attacker’s wheel, getting a free ride, while the rest of the team chases on the front. This will probably be the tactic of choice for Orica-GreenEDGE, as it disrupts the momentum of the breakaway, and gives them another chance at victory with the rider up the road. The problem with this strategy is that it thins out the team as it is hard to know which move is the one to mark, and it could leave only one or two riders to help out Ewan with the chase.
The other strategy is what I call the ‘Durbridge Solution’, which won them the race in 2013. Your team is the strongest, so you can control who ends up in the break, so you put a strong rider in there, and then sit back and allow the break to ride away. Other teams won’t want to spend 200 kilometres on the front, mostly because they won’t be able to, and also because they know that they are doing work for Ewan (in 2013, it was Michael Matthews).
This season however, sees three or four teams with similar numbers to Orica-GreenEDGE, who, while they wouldn’t be happy to ride all day on the front, have the strength to shut down an early move of this type.
There is only one other way I can see the race being run, and that is with concerted efforts of the lesser teams with numbers (Budget Forklifts, Avanti, Drapac) getting a fairly large group away, say seven to 10 riders going away with two or three laps to go. From there, it could go a number of ways.
The major favourites will think it’s too early to make a move and won’t follow it, which allows the move to ride away, and then it depends on how well the break works together, how concerted the chase is behind. Or one of the favourites follows the move, thus forcing the other favourites to follow, which ends up neutralising the move, as everyone has to chase. To be honest, this is the only way I can see one of those lesser teams winning, so I think we’ll see a move like this during the race.
So in each of these scenarios, who stands a good chance of winning?
Option 1
To be honest, I don’t see a large group making it to finish, so we’ll see Evans, Porte, Nathan Haas, Adam Hansen, Nathan Earle, David Tanner or Michael Rogers win it. If Orica-GreenEDGE can bring those guys back, it will be Ewan, Steele Von Hoff, Heinrich Haussler or Zak Dempster. Hansen also has a good ability to jump away from the peloton in the lead-in to a sprint, so if it comes down to it, look for a similar tactic from him.
Option 2
Pretty much the same candidates here, but I think it gives Orica-GreenEDGEa better chance of winning, so it makes names like Simon Clarke and Cameron Meyer almost favourites. Will decrease chances of a Ewan victory, as he’s going to have zero lead-out against some experienced sprinters.
Option 3
Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn and Damien Howson, all stand a chance. Maybe a breakaway companion like a Cameron Wurf or Wesley Sulzberger surprises.
Option 4
Darren Lapthorne, Travis Meyer (both previous national champs), Brenton Jones, Mark O’Brien, David Tanner and Lachlan Norris. Really a lot of names could fit here, essentially if you’re looking for a guy who is good enough, but not one of the marked favourites.
Other factors
The weather forecast is for wet and windy conditions, with a southerly blowing at 25 kilometres per hour, which will be a headwind at the line and a cross-tailwind up Mount Buninyong. I think that will tend to favour the more experienced riders, who will know to use the wind to their advantage, and also to launch a late sprint after a long race into a headwind.
The wind will favour attackers up Mount Buninyong, but make it harder to maintain a break, as it will be constantly fatiguing all riders in the break, while there will be at least some protection in the peloton.
Early season form is perhaps the biggest factor in determining who wins. In past years, there was little incentive for the top pros to do the race as they had little to no form, as there were no significant races surrounding the championships that their teams wanted them to be preparing for.
That has changed with the Tour Down Under becoming a World Tour race, and an early season target for all the big teams. So instead of seeing Darren Lapthorne and Travis Meyer winning the race with their form from the National Road Series and equivalent events, we are seeing the top Australian pros as the main contenders each year.
These types of races rarely see a lone rider winning, as it is still a fair way from the top of the climb to the finish line, and will be even harder this year, with the crosswind turning into a headwind on the run to the finish, advantaging those working as a group. So it is normally decided in a small sprint, and guys with a bit of a kick will be favoured to win.
Amongst the favourites that includes (in order of sprinting ability) Nathan Haas*, Cadel Evans, Simon Clarke, with the others about the same (with the exception of Porte, who I doubt would beat anyone in a sprint).
My winner
I think we’ll see a small group come into the finish together and either Cadel Evans or Nathan Haas to win it from a sprint. I’m going with Cadel as it will be tough conditions, where his experience will shine through, and he will be in absolutley top form. Hopefully it will be a showpiece of great racing with a big crowd cheering them on.
*Apparently Haas isn’t on the provisional starting list. I can’t see why he wouldn’t be riding, given that he’s down to ride the Tour Down Under in just a few weeks. I’ll opt for Simon Clarke instead as my second pick.
Fancy a wager on your favourite sport? Head on over to PlayUp for great odds and friendly customer service and pick a winner. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Tadej Pogacar has won a drama-packed Tour of Flanders, winning in a breakaway with Matieu van der Poel second, Mads Pedersen third and Wout…
Women are not allowed to compete in the Tour de France. However you choose to re-read that sentence, the fact remains: the most famous…
The jam-packed month-by-month quiz full of 2022 sports trivia!
Australian Grace Brown has won silver in the women's time trial, the first event at the world road cycling championships.
