Ever since Ray Allen left Boston in free agency for the Miami Heat and Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were traded to the Brooklyn Nets, the Celtics have been looking to enter full rebuilding mode without actually doing it.
With a potential championship-winning team challenging every season from 2007-08 to 2012-13 now gutted, it was time to reload. But it hasn’t been until just recently that the entire shop floor was cleared in favour of asset collecting.
Firstly, Rajon Rondo was traded away to Dallas in exchange for Brandon Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, a giant $12.9 million trade exception and a couple of picks.
This trade should have occurred much sooner but unfortunate timing on an injury to Rondo meant the Celtics missed their window to pick up more for the enigmatic point guard.
The next move was to move newly acquired Brandon Wright off to Phoenix for a protected first round pick and a $5 million trade exception. Currently in the works is a three-team trade that would see one of their last carryover parts from the era of success, Jeff Green, shipped off to Memphis in exchange for Tayshaun Prince’s expiring contract, Austin Rivers from the Pelicans, and a protected first-round pick.
The Celtics have already stated they don’t plan on keeping Rivers and the rumours are that he will be headed to Los Angeles to join his dad at the Clippers. The Clippers already owe the Celtics their 2015 first-round pick due to the Doc Rivers trade so the Celtics may only get a second-round pick and an expiring contract (Hedo Turkoglu and Glen Davis have small expiring contracts).
So with a gutted team and a bevy of picks the Celtics must be in a great position, right? Well, it’s not that simple given the heavy protection on so many of the picks they have traded for, so here is a rundown of the assets they have and what I think will happen in the next few years.
The predictions are only for picks that will not fall within the protection placed on it. Therefore if the Celtics have a 2015 first-round pick with 1-3 and 15-30 protection, and it is likely they won’t get it in 2015, then I will only list it when it is likely to be received.
2015 NBA draft and free agency
It is clear the Celtics will not be challenging for a playoffs berth this season, so their only smart option is to finish as low as possible in order to maximise their own first-round pick. The Clippers’ pick will fall late in the first round so they might try and trade up in combination with their own second-round pick but this is a long shot, even for Danny Ainge.
Free agency has always been tough for the Celtics and will be even tougher trying to sell players on the rebuild model if they have no one else committed and only one high draft pick.
The list of potential free agents is lengthy in 2015, but realistic targets are a bit thin so the Celtics might be better off throwing money at young player such as DeAndre Jordan or Goran Dragic. They need to fill salary given they only have $35 million committed before adding new draft picks.
2016 NBA Draft and free agency
This is the time for the Celtics to wheel, deal and strike if they want to have a chance at competing for an NBA title in the near future.
Even with four first-round picks in this draft Boston’s best bet is again their own pick and if Boston strike out in free agency this summer expect them to go all in for a shot at the 2016 number one pick. At this stage it looks like being Australian Ben Simmons, which would be a great thing for the Celtics.
The big unknown here is how Brooklyn plays in 2015-16. There is no incentive for them to lose so figure they will be in contention for the eighth seed in the East. This means their picks will be just out of the lottery and in the high teens.
Boston are also primed to get two late first-round picks thanks to Dallas and Cleveland, so look for them to package these up for a potential 10-15 range pick or with Brooklyn’s pick for a top-five pick.
They also have more second-round picks than you can shake a stick at so it will be interesting to see if how Danny Ainge uses these.
Free agency will depend on who they get in the draft and how well the development of their core of young players progresses. Kevin Durant is the top name in the 2016 free agency class but seeing him in Celtics green in about as likely as me appearing in Celtics green in 2016.
There are some interesting names that can potentially be free agents if they either opt out or opt in to their current contracts.
These players can all be free agents in 2016: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, DeMar DeRozen, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Kevin Love, Goran Dragic, Mike Conley, Nic Batum.
Danny Ainge is a crafty GM and with picks up his sleeve and a heap of trade exceptions the trade deadline in 2016 would be the best time to strike and trade for a superstar or two before splashing out in free agency.
2017 NBA Draft and free agency
It will be slim pickings for the Celtics in this draft with only their own first-round pick or Brooklyn’s depending on whether the Celtics have a better record in 2016-17. It will be sad times if the Celtics are still in the lottery in 2017 so this pick should be a bonus to add to a potentially championship-contending team if Danny Ainge wins the 2017 free agency sweepstakes.
Conclusion
The fun thing right now is to say that the Celtics have a huge amount of picks coming to them in the near future, but when you take a step back it doesn’t look as rosy due to the heavy protection on most of their acquired picks. Of the five first-round picks they have in the 2015 NBA Draft it is likely that only the Clippers pick will be available to them.
Three potential first-round picks from Washington, Philadelphia and Minnesota (via Phoenix) have a high probability of reverting to second-round picks either in the 2015 or 2016 draft thanks to clever protection.
If it wasn’t for the ridiculous Brooklyn trade that netted them a treasure chest of unprotected first-round picks (they are also owed their 2018 first-round pick) the Celtics’ future might not look as green. Ainge knows this, which is why he is going into full rebuild mode instead of something similar to what Atlanta or Milwaukee were facing recently.
They have a very small window starting with the 2015 NBA Draft to build a team and with all their picks, cap room and trade exceptions they have the ability to build a championship contending team as early as the start of the 2016-17 season if free agency is kind to them.
If they can’t lure a couple of big names then their best hope is that their draft picks turn out to be All Stars and that is a very big gamble they would prefer not to take given their current portfolio of trade assets.
Watch out for some blockbuster moves in the 2016 NBA Draft and free agency period for the Celtics and a chance at adding more banners to the rafters at the TD Garden in 2017 and beyond.
Note: I haven’t included the Memphis first-round pick included in the recent Jeff Green trade as the protection wasn’t available at the time of writing.
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