Hawthorn Hawks went back to back in 2014, dominating the Swans in a game they never looked like losing. What’s in store in 2015?
1. The 91-19 theme to beating Hawthorn
In 2014 Hawthorn had an impressive record of winning all 19 times when they scored more than 91 points in a game. The six times they failed to pass 91 led to the five losses that Hawthorn had during the season.
Adding to the 91-19 theme, three of those five losses came by 19 points with the other two by 14 and 20 points. Hawthorn did not win any 19-point game last year nor did they win a game when they scored 91 points.
So carrying on that same theme, perhaps the way in which to beat Hawthorn in 2015 is to restrict them to 91 points. Or stay 19 points ahead at all times.
2. Three straight titles and the historic significance
Arguably not enough is being made of the history that Hawthorn are looking to embark upon in 2015. Only Brisbane in the AFL era has made it to four consecutive grand final appearances and not since the golden era of Hawthorn football in the 1980s have the Hawks had this opportunity.
Recent history has suggested that three grand finals in succession is the height of success with Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda (both courtesy of a grand final replay) recent teams that peaked with three Grand final appearances.
For that reason what Hawthorn is trying to achieve this year needs to be recognised for the history that it is. Four years of a gruelling, 26-week season can take its toll and will be the one overhanging question mark as Hawthorn approach a three-peat.
Hawthorn are the 22nd team to win back to back premierships in VFL/ AFL history. Only four of those teams have gone on to win three and one to win four. History is very much against Hawthorn.
3. The Clarkson and Bolton Coaching Situation
What failed to generate much media attention as three coaches were sacked following the culmination of the 2014 season was the inability of Brendon Bolton to secure one of those available jobs.
Bolton enjoyed a stunning six week period as Hawthorn coach when Alastair Clarkson was sidelined with illness, leading Hawthorn to six consecutive wins. Bolton still boasts a 100per cent win rate as an AFL coach and likely his remaining at Glenferrie had part to do with Hawthorn beginning to look post-Clarkson.
Clarkson is still signed through 2016 and there has been no suggestion that he will retire from coaching at that point, but perhaps Bolton staying at Hawthorn is the first indication that Clarkson may see a role change to become the director of coaching in 2017.
Hope is always high for Clarkson to receive a clean bill of health this year, but now in Bolton, Hawthorn know they have a readymade AFL coach in waiting.
4. Ceglar and Simpkin’s motivation
In 2013 both, Taylor Duryea and Matt Spangher were in the final 25 for a grand final berth and ultimately a premiership medallion before just missing out. In 2014 it appeared that the feeling of being so close sparked career-best seasons as Duryea became an integral part of Hawthorn’s run and rebound game and Spangher embracing cult figure status and was a key tall utility.
In 2015 the roles of Duryea and Spangher are set to be played by grand final bench-sitters Jon Ceglar and Jonathan Simpkin.
The spark and motivation that incoming players like Jon O’Rourke and James Frawley will play on Hawthorn has been well documented but what Ceglar and Simpkin offer is just as crucial.
Whereas O’Rourke and Frawley are coming into a new culture and are looking to earn and learn their place, for Ceglar and Simpkin they are well aware of where they stand within the club and know what they need to do to guarantee best 22 selection.
For Ceglar it is about continuing to improve his aerial work and take the number one ruck mantle at Hawthorn, while for Simpkin it is showing the consistency and endurance to shake that super sub tag. If those two can show rapid improvement then Hawthorn are a more rounded contender this year.
5. The Tasmania advantage against other contenders
Hawthorn’s imposing record at York Park in Launceston continues to grow as they have now won their last 11 at the venue and 18 of its past 19. In 2015, Hawthorn has gained a key advantage in that they play a potential top four rival in Fremantle and two possible finals contenders in Gold Coast and Brisbane at the venue.
In what is likely to be a tight season, the home ground advantage and possible four wins that will come at Aurora Stadium represent a key advantage for Hawthorn in a tough year as two time reigning champion.
6. A tough schedule, a long game
As has been the case for the past five seasons, Hawthorn continue to be one of the biggest drawing teams and have suffered a tough fixture as a result. It is no different this year as again the Hawks face one of the most daunting schedules with double ups against finals contenders all over the place.
As a club Hawthorn have recently promoted the idea of playing a long game over short term wins and likely this year will be testament to that. Last year they were conservative with injuries and their best players, expect again that conservative approach to be in play and as a result the odd loss is possible.
While every loss will be highly scrutinised and any losing streak will be spoken of as the end, Hawthorn will be comfortable knowing that simply being in September is all they need to build a three-peat charge.
7. Veterans actually getting better
The buzzwords around Hawthorn this year? Probably ‘veteran’ followed closely by ‘ageing list’.
While most are quick to point out that Hawthorn now has an overabundance of players approaching or over the age of 30, few seem ready to acknowledge that most of those players approaching or over 30 are in career-best form.
Thanks to smart list management and injury management over the past decade, Hawthorn have been able to keep the core of its list refreshed so they are still able to perform at a high level.
Given the experience that this veteran group now have the Hawthorn veterans could arguably just get better this year and play just a big part in the 2015 success with experience as they did in the 2007 success with youthful exuberance.
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