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There was a moment in the last 10 minutes of Australia’s quarter-final victory over China when I missed a few heartbeats, held my breath, and might have uttered “please, no…”
I think Socceroos coach Ange Postecoglou might have seen it too. Tim Cahill, the man with more hashtags than any player in the tournament, chased down the Chinese back four as they were playing the ball out of defence.
Cahill attempted a tackle from behind the Chinese central defender, who stumbled but played the ball into his teammate’s feet and the moment was over.
But let’s imagine for a moment that Cahill’s challenge was mistimed, perhaps a little more robust. The defender goes down, the referee signals for a free kick and hand goes to pocket. Yellow card, and Cahill is out of the semi-final match.
At the World Cup last year, Cahill said in an interview that he plays “in the moment”. He doesn’t think of yellow cards or consequences for future games, he goes out and gives everything for the game he’s engaged in, for the team he is picked in, for the country that has been so damned lucky to have him as a representative.
On such small moments, the fortunes of nations can revolve. It’s why the overwhelming enthusiasm from Socceroos fans that greeted the quarter-final results in the Asian Cup needs to be tempered. Postecoglou knows this and has managed his squad masterfully to this point. Both Mile Jedinak and Cahill were withdrawn at 2-0 against China, a score famously proven to not be enough by Iran in 1997, but enough this time for the Socceroos to progress to an inevitable showdown against Japan.
But wait a minute… there is no Japan heading to Newcastle, and there will no doubt be those who believe that gives the Socceroos an easier passage to the final on January 31. Ange will be sticking it to the squad from here until Tuesday not to buy into that sort of complacency.
Indeed, United Arab Emirates are ranked 20 places above Australia in FIFA’s rankings (although you could put as much stock on that as winning a bingo sheet at the local RSL club). UAE have proven themselves resilient and legitimate contenders. They rode their luck against Japan for sure and were beaten on every stat sheet to come out of the game. But it wasn’t one-sided on the only stat sheet that counted.
It reminded me of an amazing World Cup qualifier more than 40 years ago when England played Poland at Wembley Stadium, needing a win to qualify for the 1974 World Cup finals. Poland managed the most extraordinary escape, hanging on for a 1-1 draw on a night when England conspired to hit posts, defenders on the line, an inspired keeper named Jan Tomaszewski, (infamously referred to by Brian Clough in the post-match wrap as a “clown”) and fall on the sword of their own wayward finishing.
Nothing was expected of Poland as they took their place in the World Cup finals. The game was an aberration, a freakish riding of luck. Poland finished third in the World Cup.
UAE have the defensive capabilities to shut out the Socceroos, especially if the team comes to rely too much on Cahill. There will be a fine balancing act between attacking force and panic to tread if the game goes a long time without an Australian goal. And of course, there is Omar Abdulrahman to contend with, a player arguably just as dangerous to Australia as Cahill is to the UAE.
Perhaps one advantage not mentioned so much is that the Socceroos can now rely on almost total support in Newcastle. Japan’s fans threatened to take up half the stadium but UAE do not have the same level of support as Samurai Blue, and a jam-packed 24,000 wall of gold noise might just be worth some extra momentum if it becomes tight, as it no doubt will.
Even if the Socceroos do manage to get past UAE and secure a finals berth, they’ll face one of two teams who have managed to cause problems in the recent past.
South Korea of course are the only team so far to hold the Socceroos scoreless in the tournament. Iraq are largely a side that has grown together over the last four years, and a virtual youth side not even two years ago when a Josh Kennedy header was the only thing separating the two teams in that final World Cup qualifier. They are strong, attacking, skilful, and like the Socceroos, bely their FIFA ranking.
Having Japan and Iran heading for the airport departure lounge might look like a luxury but the Socceroos are not there yet.
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