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2015 Thomas North Manfred Stakes: Preview and tips

Roar Guru
25th January, 2015
1

2015 Thomas North Manfred Stakes: Race 6, 4:20pm AEDT – I’ve had a quick look at this Australia Day race, once again trying to find a few historical factors that could unlock the winner of this years edition.

The historical data is clouded given this race has changed distances and tracks over the years.

I’ve only gone back to 2005 and 9/10 runnings were at Caulfield, the last three of those at 1200m, and the other six at 1400m.

The only time the race was run here at 1300m (since 2005) was in 2011, won by Enjin Number Nine (a personal triumph at odds).

Overall there still seems to be enough useful data to give us a decent guide to finding this years winner, and I can only really see two horses that stand out given that data. Firstly though here are the last 10 winners:

  • 2014 Bull Point
  • 2013 Royal Haunt (Mirage)
  • 2012 Mosheen
  • 2011 Enjin Number Nine
  • 2010 Denman
  • 2009 Nicconi
  • 2008 Turffontein
  • 2007 Haradasun
  • 2006 Thin And Crispy
  • 2005 Niconero

That’s quite an impressive list of horses. A few were already Group 1 performers coming into the race. Also a few G1 trainers have cashed in with two a piece for Peter Moody and David Hayes, one for Gai Waterhouse, Anthony Cummings, Tony Vasil, Robert Smerdon, Peter Snowden & Matthew Ellerton/Mark Zahra.

Most pertinent historical factors:

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  1. 7/10 were last start winners
  2. 7/10 were second up
  3. 10/10 started from barrier 7 or below – it should be pointed out that Royal Haunt started from barrier 7 of 7 (led) and Mosheen barrier 6 of 8, but there is a bigger field this year so inside barriers may be an advantage.
  4. 7/10 started at 1200m last start. Two others were first up, and the other won at 1000m prior. (Nicconi)

Ideally we are looking for a horse with these factors in their favour today, and preferably trained by a trainer who has won at Group 1 level.

I would nominate FAST CASH and SAN NICASIO as clearly the ones with the obvious historical prerequisites. Both second up and won at 1200m last start, drawn well, and in good stables.

Interesting that both won at Mooney Valley 1200m last start on different days, but in almost identical time. San Nicasio goes up .5kg whilst Fast Cash goes up 2.5kg. Also noted that San Nicasio is by a sire called Hard Spun and trained by Peter Moody. 2013 winner Royal Haunt (renamed Mirage in HK) was also trained by Moody, and by the same sire. At the odds I would be leaning his way slightly but I have a very high opinion of the other horse.

Also consider BERISH here too at big odds. Nothing much to like historically but he has been hemmed in on the rails at his past two runs and he hasn’t appreciated it. Out in barrier 8 today he may well surprise at big odds.

Selections:

  1. SAN NICASIO
  2. FAST CASH
  3. BERISHA
  4. PETROLOGY
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