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Carlton’s 2015 season is about to begin. Continuing our series of 2015 previews, can the Blues improve on their 2014 form?
1. Chris Judd’s importance and durability
While there has been a changing of the guard at the top end with Carlton, the importance that Judd plays in the team cannot be understated.
Playing only 12 games in 2014, Judd’s durability has also come into question. Over a gruelling 13-year career, where Judd has came under as much physical pressure as any other player, he has managed to play at least 19 games in 11 of his 13 years.
Highlighting Judd’s importance, prior to last year – his first injury-affected season – a Judd team had never finished lower then 10th and never had less than 10 wins.
That Judd missed significant time last year and Carlton struggled should not be seen as a coincidence. Looking at his career as a whole, 2014 should be considered the outlier.
Judd is set to play a pivotal role if the Blues are to play finals football in 2015.
2. The other members of the injured bunch
Most analysts point out the games missed by Matthew Kreuzer and Judd in 2014 as a reason for improvement in 2015. But there were plenty of other casualties for the Blues in 2014.
On top of this duo games were missed by David Ellard (9), Joe Carrazzo (8), Andrew Walker (8), Ed Curnow (7), Sam Docherty (6) and Marc Murphy (2). Given this group of six could all see midfield time this year due to coach Mick Malthouse’s desire for flexibility, it is worth noting the impact that this group could have if they can string games together as a group.
3. Goals
Whenever a team loses its leading goal kicker from the year previous year, the first question has to be where the goals are going to come from.
The loss of Jarrad Waite has been offset by the arrival of Liam Jones and Kristian Jaksch, however the reality is that Waite has played 184 AFL games for 252 goals.
The Jones-Jaksch duo has 70 goals in 73 games. It is a big difference in terms of experience and goal kicking that Carlton has lost. Big things are needed from Lachie Henderson and Matthew Kreuzer, but Jones and Jacksch contributing a goal and a half a game each would be what is needed to overcome the loss of Waite.
4. Draft history
For a club with a patchy record when it comes to top 25 draft selections the pick of Blaine Boekhurst on draft night late last year was certainly somewhat from left field for Carlton.
Even in the past nine months Carlton have seen former top-25 picks Kane Lucas and Josh Bootsma moved on from the club while others like Matthew Watson and Patrick Cripps are still yet to show the potential they showed at underage level.
Boekhurst is an intriguing prospect in that while he is mature aged and has senior football experience, he does not come from a football background and is far less experienced at the game as a whole than other top 25 picks.
Either way, this appears a high-risk, high-reward play for Carlton. Given some of the failures they have had on safe picks, it may be the best choice they could have made.
5. A real x-factor
Remember when x-factor used to be the buzz word in AFL circles? What was an overused term could easily be brought back when describing Carlton forward and budding midfielder Troy Menzel.
As an AFL footballer Menzel has shown a real ability to do the freakish and produce bursts of play that are scintillating. The key for Menzel and for Carlton is finding a way to have that freakish burst last for longer.
26 games into his career, Menzel has never had more than 15 possessions in a game. For Carlton’s ongoing success Menzel needs to evolve from a player who does little things or only helps on the scoreboard.
It is understandable why Carlton have been slow to integrate Menzel to a key role given injury concerns, but now the time has come for Carlton to let this true x-factor off the chain.
6. Fluctuating draw
Carlton are in a position of highlighting the flaw of the AFL’s recently implemented fixture pools.
After lucking their way to a top six position in 2013, the 2014 fixture was brutal for the Blues. It was another one of the reasons in a tough year why they slid to 13th. Now finding themselves in a bottom pool for the 2015 fixture, Carlton embark upon a favourable draw.
With two games each against GWS, Brisbane and Collingwood, the possibility is really there for Carlton to springboard back to finals action in 2015.
7. The Malthouse effect
All of Western Bulldogs, West Coast and Collingwood showed significant improvement in year two when coached by Malthouse. Many Blues fans must have expected a similar outcome, however would have been disappointed.
While year two may not have brought success, Carlton fans may remember that Malthouse made the grand final in his third year with both West Coast and Collingwood.
The reality is that this Carlton team does not seem a premiership contender, but hey, Malthouse has the history. That is at least one positive for long suffering Carlton fans.
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