If the past decade in the lopsided rivalry between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova is anything to go by, then what was being billed as a dream final between the world’s top two players could descend into yet another ugly result.
The domination of Williams over Sharapova is well documented in tennis circles. The American has won all fifteen of their subsequent meetings since last losing to the Russian in the final of the 2004 WTA Tour Championships.
Many of the victories Serena has had during this patch have ranged from total domination (think the gold medal match at the 2012 London Olympics) to just getting over the line (2005 Australian Open semi-final).
However, it’s Sharapova who enters the championship match in better form than Williams. She will carry a ten-match winning streak, her best start to a season since 2008, into the final.
But the question remains – can she end her decade-long curse against Serena Williams or will the latter’s domination over the Russian continue? Here is the ultimate guide to the 2015 Australian Open women’s final.
Serena Williams (1) versus Maria Sharapova (2)
Saturday, January 31
Not before 7:30pm
Rod Laver Arena
Head-to-head: S Williams 16-2
At Grand Slams: 4-1
Last meeting: S Williams 6-3, 6-4, semi-finals, 2014 Miami Masters
Serena Williams
Road to the final
Round 1: defeated Alison van Uytvanck 6-0, 6-4
Round 2: defeated Vera Zvonareva 7-5, 6-0
Round 3: defeated Elina Svitolina (26) 4-6, 6-2, 6-0
Round 4: defeated Garbine Muguruza (24) 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
Quarter-finals: defeated Dominika Cibulkova (11) 6-2, 6-2
Semi-finals: defeated Madison Keys 7-6 (7-5), 6-2
Maria Sharapova
Road to the final
Round 1: defeated Petra Martic 6-4, 6-1
Round 2: defeated Alexandra Panova 6-1, 4-6, 7-5
Round 3: defeated Zarina Diyas (31) 6-1, 6-1
Round 4: defeated Peng Shuai (21) 6-3, 6-0
Quarter-finals: defeated Eugenie Bouchard (7) 6-3, 6-2
Semi-finals: defeated Ekaterina Makarova (10) 6-3, 6-2
Preview
Throughout the last decade no player has devastated Maria Sharapova more than Serena Williams ever has.
It’s a hoodoo which threatens to continue on Saturday night when the world’s top two women face off in the first 1 versus 2 women’s final since 2004, when Justine Henin claimed her only title at Melbourne Park at the expense of compatriot Kim Clijsters.
A lot of the talk leading up to the tournament had focused on whether Serena Williams could win the Australian Open for the first time since 2010. In her previous three visits to Melbourne Park, the American had failed to get past the quarter-finals, being hampered by injury on the latter two occasions.
In addition, Williams struggled for form at the Hopman Cup, needing three sets to get past Flavia Pennetta and Lucie Safarova on either side of copping a straight-sets hiding from Eugenie Bouchard. She also suffered a three-set loss to Agnieszka Radwanska as the United States lost to Poland in the final.
She also endured an unusually poor year at the Grand Slams in 2014, failing to get past the fourth round at either the Australian and French Opens, or Wimbledon. However, she did save her best for last when she won her sixth US Open title without dropping a set.
This year’s Australian Open has seen her return to top form and she will start a rampaging hot favourite to claim title number six at Melbourne Park and Grand Slam title number 19, edging her closer to that magical 20 mark.
Standing in her way of her and more Grand Slam greatness is 27-year-old Maria Sharapova, who last year returned to top form after a shoulder injury prevented her from playing at the US Open in 2013.
At one stage last year she was in danger of dropping out of the top ten for the first time since 2011, however, titles in Stuttgart, Madrid and the French Open saw her stay in the world’s elite and she ultimately finished the year ranked second only behind Williams.
Apart from a near-disaster against Alexandra Panova in the second round, Sharapova has been equally as ruthless as she seeks her second Australian Open title to compliment her sole success in 2008.
After barely scraping past Panova, the Russian has lost no more than three games in any set and cruised past seeded comrades Zarina Diyas, Peng Shuai, Eugenie Bouchard and countrywoman Ekaterina Makarova to reach her first Australian Open final since 2012.
But as devastating as her form has been in her last four matches, the Russian will have to be on her A-game as she attempts to end a decade of misery against Serena Williams. It’s achievable, but can it be done?
Stats that matter
* This will be Serena Williams’ 23rd Grand Slam final, while for Maria Sharapova this will be her 10th.
* Williams will be shooting for her 19th Grand Slam title, Sharapova her seventh. The former will aim for a sixth Australian Open title but first since 2010, while the latter will seek her second Australian Open title but first since 2008.
* This will be their fourth Grand Slam final against each other, sixth at Grand Slam level overall and third at the Australian Open. Serena leads 2-1, 4-1 and 2-0 in these respective categories.
* Sharapova is just one of three women (the other two being Venus Williams and Samantha Stosur) to have beaten Serena in a Grand Slam final. Only Venus (2001 US Open and Wimbledon 2008) has beaten her more times in a Grand Slam final.
* During the ongoing fifteen-match winning streak that Serena Williams has enjoyed over Maria Sharapova, the American has lost just three sets. On two of those occasions, she dropped the opening set before recovering to win in three sets.
* Regardless of the result, Williams will hang onto the world number one ranking for at least another month when the rankings are updated. However, the gap between her and Sharapova will be determined by this result, as both players lost in the fourth round last year.
* That said, the battle for the world number one ranking could intensify during the Middle East swing in February.
* The order of the current top four (Williams, Sharapova, Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova) will remain as it is when the rankings are updated on Monday.
The verdict
Throughout the last decade Maria Sharapova has developed somewhat of a mental block while playing Serena Williams and this has played a huge part in her losing her last fifteen matches against the American dating way back to 2005.
Most notably, Sharapova was on the wrong end of a humiliating straight-sets loss when she faced Williams in the Australian Open final eight years ago. The American was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 season, was ranked 81st in the world, hadn’t won a title for two years and entered the Open in terribly bad shape.
However, this is a new year and given her hot form so far in 2015, as opposed to Williams’ struggles at the Hopman Cup, there couldn’t be a better chance for the Russian to finally end a decade-long curse against her long-time career nemesis.
Matches against Maria Sharapova always brings out the best in Serena Williams. The American has not forgotten her surprise loss to Sharapova in the 2004 Wimbledon final (or the final of the WTA Tour Championships from the same year) and it’s that loss which always spurs her to perform well against the Russian.
Williams will also be driven by last year’s shock fourth-round exit which perhaps could have been caused as a result of complacency, given she entered last year’s Australian Open as the title favourite and off the back of a dominant 2013 season.
In the end it will be her Grand Slam successes, her goal to hit 20 Grand Slams this year and her long dominance of Maria Sharapova which will win her a sixth Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup.
Prediction
Serena Williams in straight sets.
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