Group 1 racing in 2014-15 returns to Australia this Saturday with the CF Orr Stakes (1400m), the first of 42 more races we’ll see at the highest level this season.
The CF Orr Stakes, run at the late time of 5:50pm AEDT on Saturday, has a list of winners to compare with any race on the calendar.
In recent times winners have included gun colt All Too Hard, horse-of-the-year winning mares Black Caviar and Typhoon Tracy, Cox Plate winners Maldivian and El Segundo, plus the likes of Elvstroem, Lohnro and Redoute’s Choice.
Go further back and we see Saintly, Jeune, Let’s Elope, winning trebles from Vo Rogue and Manikato, plus Surround, Rising Fast and Flight.
In summary, it’s a good horse’s race.
We can be reasonably confident no horse in this year’s field that will end their careers rivalling any of the above, but it’s a race of some classy types and honest triers, any of which could salute on the day.
Dissident is the short-priced favourite, despite failing when in the red first-up in the Australia Stakes. While he should have had lengths on that field at weight for age, he’s never really been a 1200-metre horse, with no wins from five starts at the distance.
He had a few things against and never looked entirely comfortable in his first go at Moonee Valley, but did hit the line well once he straightened up. He deserves to be favourite, as any Memsie Stakes winner should be in this.
The somewhat unknown three-year-olds are next in the market, and the only other two under double-figure odds.
Petrology won the Sandown Guineas in awesome fashion at the end of the Melbourne spring carnival, and backed it up upon resumption with a mighty effort in the Manfred Stakes on Australia day. He carried weight and, after getting back from a wide barrier, came home like a hungry dog for dinner.
The only horse he couldn’t get past that day was Java, who has progressed from maiden class to Group 3 winner with his last four victories on end. He shouldn’t have too many problems getting a nice spot from a wide barrier, and will be trying to pinch a break at the home turn.
Entirely Platinum, Spillway and Star Rolling all burst on the scene in the spring, but ended up promising more than they delivered. Their best runs were their first in those campaigns, each of them over 1400 metres, which gives them some case first-up tomorrow if they bring that form.
Happy Trails tends to deliver more than he promises, and rarely lets you down if you stick with him for a campaign. He takes a while to get going in the spring, but will have residual fitness on his side first-up here. He’ll likely have to storm over the top of them from last, but if he’s fit enough he’s can do it.
Real Love is the Perth raider coming off a picket fence of staying wins in his hometown, looking to drop back 1000 metres six weeks after his last race. The interesting runner, but no thanks.
Mourhino beat Dissident in that Australia Stakes, and has three wins from his last six starts, with winning prices of $31 and $20 among them. He’ll be a similar quote tomorrow due to his very best form being at the Valley, but must be a huge trifecta and blow-out winning chance from a cosy draw.
Toydini has never really lived up to lofty expectations, but is the kind of horse that some punters will want a piece of at long odds, even if he is likely to be in need of the run.
Sonntag will jump at big odds. The form behind his last three wins, including a Sale Cup and Queensland Derby, hasn’t really stood up to any kind of level, so there are questions marks over his quality in these kinds of races.
Mouro is an honest battler that can beat home more than beat him on a good day. Aeronautical is outgraded at WFA. Bagman and Beaten Up are the token Chris Waller Group 1 runners, down to Melbourne after decent first-up runs in the Expressway on soft ground.
The tempo shouldn’t be any more than even, and while a brand new track should favour those on the rail early in the day, it’s hard to know what impact this will have by race eight.
Selections
1. Dissident
2. Mourhino
3. Java
4. Happy Trails
Elsewhere around the country, the Light Fingers pits the best fillies in the land against each other. Mossfun will be seen for the first time since her Golden Slipper win, while First Seal and Amicus have the three-year-old runs on the board.
The Apollo Stakes sees the usual Waller WFA suspects against mares with Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup form in Silent Achiever and Lucia Valentina. Ninth Legion is maturing into a nice horse, and they’ll know he’s there somewhere.
And back in Melbourne, the fillies and colts do battle in their respective Blue Diamond Prelude’s. The fillies appear to have the edge at this point in time, or at least a more solidified pecking order. All of that can and probably will change tomorrow.
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