With the on-field action finished for the 2014-15 NFL season, everyone’s attention turns to 2015-16. Despite a long break between downs there is still a lot going on in the NFL.
February 16 is the first day for clubs to designate their franchise or transition players.
Predicting who may or may not get tagged is very difficult in that many factors are at play. The financial situation of the team, what position they are drafting at and how much they value the player are all considered.
For those who need refreshing, the franchise tag is used by a club on a player scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent. The tag binds the player to the team for one more year. A transition tag guarantees the original club the right of first refusal to match any offer the player may make with another team.
Last season saw six players tagged and many will remember the debate over whether Saints tight end Jimmy Graham was to be given the wide receiver or tight-end tag. He was ultimately given the tight-end tag, costing him millions of dollars (which might explain his poor play in 2014).
This season there is no such debate over a certain position but there are some big names that have the potential to be tagged.
Here are my forecasts for the 2015 franchise tags:
Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs
Houston had the most silent 22-sack season in NFL history in 2014 and would have been defensive player of the year if it weren’t for the man-beast JJ Watt.
Believe it or not that Kansas City roster has some cap trouble and their only discussions with Houston are well below what Houston deserves. They will tag Houston and he will pocket $11.4 million in 2015.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
The debate all off season has been Dez or DeMarco? It is not an overly difficult question. Yes DeMarco Murray had a stellar season but Dez Bryant has the makings of a hall of fame receiver.
The Cowboys will tag Bryant, giving them time to both restructure some other deals in their cap and sit down with Dez and work on what could be the richest deal for a wide receiver in NFL history. The franchise tag for a wide receiver in 2015 is approximately $12.7 million.
Devin McCourty, New England Patriots
If the Patriots want to make it back to the big dance next year they need to keep that suffocating secondary intact, and tagging Devin McCourty would be the first step in doing so.
McCourty chose the right time to play like an elite free safety, because there aren’t many in the NFL. If New England let him hit free agency, in their cap situation they will lose him and potentially Darrelle Revis in a short amount of time. Tagging McCourty would make him the second-highest paid safety in the NFL at $9.5 million, just shy of Earl Thomas’ $10 million a season.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
The muddy waters in Denver should be clear soon when the great Peyton Manning makes a decision on his future. Ian Rapoport from NFL Network reported that the Broncos are looking at tagging Thomas and working out a long-term deal with tight end Julius Thomas. Wes Welker is likely to retire from the concussion issues that have hindered him for over a year now.
With so many issues coming to a head offensively in Denver, tagging Thomas make sense so they can sit down and work out a long-term deal next season.
Randall Cobb and Bryan Bulaga, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have two key cogs on their offense both without a contract for 2015. The Packers were a helmet away from a Super Bowl appearance, so keeping both players is the preferred option.
With $23 million in cap space, I can see them tagging Randall Cobb to ensure at least one more season of incredible chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and still find a way to sign Bulaga to a contract extension. The alternative is tagging your right tackle with injury concerns (has had ACL issues) for $13 million.
Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions
Ndamukong Suh was teary eyed after what he thought was his last game for the Detroit Lions. As recently as last week he was saying he would love to play for Seattle. Now Tim Twentyman from the Detroit Lions website expects Suh to remain with the Lions. Whether that means applying the $26.7 million franchise tag (which would be them in dire cap trouble) or working out a long-term agreement is yet to be determined.
Look for Suh to remain a Lion by way of a new deal, stacked heavily from 2016.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are $23 million in the red, which puts them in the worst salary cap situation in the entire NFL. Don’t expect Mark Ingram to land a franchise tag worth approximately $11 million, especially with Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas and Tavaris Cadet on the roster.
The upcoming draft is loaded at running back, similar to what we saw with wide receiver this year, so look for them to find another running back during that process.
Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons
Last season we saw Nick Folk of the New York Jets franchise tagged so it is not unusual for teams to tag a kicker. Bryant has nailed 90 per cent or more of his field goals in three of his five-plus seasons with the Falcons. Bryant turns 40 in May however and not many kickers over 40 succeed in the NFL.
Franchise tagging Bryant would give the Falcons the season to prove if Bryant can still produce in his 40s. I find it highly unlikely that they will tag him, but hey this is the NFL – we have seen stranger things happen.
That wraps up my franchise tag forecast for the 2015 NFL offseason, what are your thoughts? Is there someone you think should be tagged that is not on this list?
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