The Sydney Autumn Carnival shifts to Rosehill this Saturday, where we will see several Group races, highlighted by a crack bunch of three-year-olds including Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win, in the $200,000 Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m).
The Hobartville gets away at 4.15pm Sydney time and is the sixth event on the eight-race card.
It’s hard not to be impressed by the way Shooting To Win has come back for the Autumn. His exhibition gallops have been sharp, and his recent trial win at Randwick was scintillating, running awfully slick time for the 1000m.
He bumped into a wet track first-up last time in and failed badly, so that’s the query, but he is a lengths better horse now.
Still, with a run under his belt, I’m going with Kermadec. He was fantastic in the Eskimo Prince, sitting off the speed, then looming as the winner at 300 metres. His fitness eventually gave out, but he still attacked the line for fourth.
Any give in the ground looks perfect, he’s fitter and remains on his home track. Great each-way bet.
Meursault needed a confidence boost so John O’Shea sent him to run under the lights at Canterbury and he bolted in, winning by three, leading all the way. He proved in the Spring that he can be competitive against this class of horse, and he is rock hard fit as well as being high in confidence.
Selections
Kermadec (8) on top, to beat Shooting To Win (2), Meursault (10) and Hallowed Crown (3).
Some key Golden Slipper contenders will slog it out 40 minutes earlier in the first leg of the quaddie when they contest the $250,000 Group 2 Silver Slipper (1100m).
Headwater could not have been more impressive on debut at the Valley when leading throughout to win and win by a space, beating home Stoker, who has since won the Inglis Premier at Sandown.
He comes from Melbourne with a big reputation and takes on Sydney’s best, so it’ll be a good test, but he he looked very good in a trial on Tuesday.
Ottoman put up a huge effort to win on debut here in December, coming from near last and charging home down the outside to nail her rivals. A recent trial was very sharp, and she does look one of the better youngsters for Godolphin. Bred to handle the wet too, so keep an eye on market moves.
Voilier is a smart youngster for Gary Nickson who won on debut here in December before being tipped out. He was hard ridden in a recent trial win at Warwick Farm, but the good thing was that he found extra when asked, and that’s a great quality to have as a two-year-old heading towards the Slipper. He isn’t the best two-year-old, but he is one of the toughest.
Selections
Headwater (5) clearly on top, ahead of Ottoman (6), Voilier (4) and Holler (2), who did trial well.
Come 2.20pm some of the better mares racing at the moment will tune up for the Coolmore when they line up in the $175,000 Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes (1300m), which is race three.
I’m absolutely all over Avoid Lightning here to beat Catkins. She is a gun mare who hasn’t raced since winning the Group 3 Nivison at Randwick in October. Les Bridge has given her plenty of time to prepare for the Autumn, and she just looked awesome in her latest trial, which was at Randwick when running second to Kirramosa. She’s an absolute bomb fresh, loves the wet ground and won her only run here.
The weights scale does mean that Catkins will be very hard to beat, more so on reputation. After the run she had first-up in the Breeders Classic, I thought she was going to win a bit more easily, but she only just got there and had nothing left in the straight. She’ll get the wet track she desperately needs here, and does have the run under the belt.
She looks outclassed on form and looks terribly in at the weights, but the speed map does suggest that Mardi will get a very soft time in front, as she did here on January 31 when leading all the way to beat Adorabeel, who won seven days later to frank the form. Looks outclassed, but should lead comfortably and perhaps sneak a first-four spot.
Selections
Pretty keen on Avoid Lightning (3), to beat Catkins (1), Mardi (7) and Lilliburlero (4).
In other races on the program:
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