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Only one of Manly, Storm, Penrith and Brisbane will make the finals

Filled with rage and four foot tall, Anthony Watmough could be a Looney Tunes character - maybe the Tasmanian Devil? (Photo by Charles Knight copyright © nrlphotos.com).
Roar Guru
19th February, 2015
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No one likes to write about failure, but at the end of every season at least half the teams and their supporters won’t be happy.

Cronulla Sharks were wooden spooners last year but most pundits have them being very competitive this year.

The Tigers, Knights, Dragons, Eels and Warriors are all looking to make the finals this year. But with 16 teams to fit into the top eight something has to give.

According to Roar Expert Tim Gore, “the average changeover during the last three and a half decades is three sides.” That is an average of three teams drop out of the top eight each year from the previous year.

So who will they be?

The bookies have Manly as favourites to miss the finals with the Warriors to take their place. Manly seem to have begun a slow slide, and Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have yet to re-sign which could cast a pall over their season.

Melborne Storm would be on my list to miss the finals because of their ageing roster, which is being kept in cotton wool and has yet to make an appearance this year. Craig Bellamy has called on his men for mental strength to win the close matches this year.

Penrith Panthers have also yet to expose their stars to the daylight and there must be some questions over their ageing halves combination, despite their performances last year.

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Finally the Broncos, with the return of Wayne Bennett, are favoured by the bookies this year, but they only just snuck into the finals last year and have a hard draw. They have many starters in the rehab ward at the moment, face Souths first-up at home and if they get hammered confidence will be low for the other tough matches they face early in the season.

For all teams injuries will play an important part, as will refereeing decisions and representative commitments. But if you believe statistics in the NRL

Manly, Storm, Penrith or Broncos fans may claim that the average is only three teams, not four, drop out of the top eight, but “since 2005 we’ve had a four-side changeover on four occasions and once – 2010 – we’ve had five new finalists”.

This could of course, be one of the years when last year’s final eight repeats, but again statistics do not support this, as “there has only been one instance in the last 35 seasons where exactly the same teams made the finals again the following year: in 1999”.

It is going to be a long hard season before we find out who misses the eight.

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