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An AFL ladder pool prediction: The bottom six

23rd February, 2015
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Roar Guru
23rd February, 2015
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4373 Reads

Since somehow nailing a ladder prediction in 2010 by getting the seven of the top eight teams correct, my last four seasons of ladder predictions have been deplorable.

At one point I had Melbourne as a top-six team. I had North Melbourne as a top-four team long before they had even played finals under Brad Scott. For the past three seasons I have written the Cats off. Even last year I was ridiculously high on Fremantle while being way low on Port Adelaide.

Topping off the horrid of all horrid season predictions, I may have even had Carlton as a top-four contender in 2014 – the prime example of how out of touch I have been.

So with the AFL modifying their strategy on fixtures in the past two seasons to a pool system, my ladder prediction is going to modify along with it, and over the next week you will get my ladder pools for 2015. Today we start at the foot of the table with teams in the pool 13-18.

This pre-season there has only been three teams whose language is of a club in the midst of a rebuild and who are essentially warning their fans not to expect wins in 2014. St Kilda were last year’s wooden spoon side and despite coach Alan Richardson forecasting a more attacking and more daring Saints, this is still a team that lacks class and experience.

The names on the St Kilda list speaks of the current position of the club. This is a group of young prospective stars being held together by a couple of timeless veterans who are true stalwarts of the club. There is enough promise in this young list and enough wisdom on those old heads that St Kilda will cause a couple of upsets this year, just as they did last year. But those upsets will be punctuated by longer passages where the team battles to find the consistency that the best teams have.

As for the other two teams that are using language usually associated with a list rebuild, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne are in a bit of an unknown position in terms of their rebuild.

The Western Bulldogs had appeared to make strides over the past few seasons, but the 2014-15 off-season saw a wholesale shakeup of both the playing list and coaching group. Like a number of the clubs who have missed finals over the past few seasons, there are budding superstars on the list, but a real lack of veteran experience and consistency from the young bright spots means a bottom-end ladder position should be expected.

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As for Melbourne some recent additions to the list may mean that the club has advanced further than many experts are forecasting. Given that this was a club that produced one of the worst attacking seasons in nearly a century, the reasons to be pessimistic are front of mind or forward of the ball. But through some shrewd investment in giving that forward line some potency, this is a team that will cause an upset or two.

If the club embraces a more positive game plan and gets some good luck on the injury front they could finish a lot closer to 13 than 18.

With three taken care of, the final three groups of the bottom pool are tougher to predict. Indeed in all examples it is about looking at the red flags. And none are bigger than impending ASADA sanctions to a large number of Essendon players.

If these sanctions are to stretch for a full season then Essendon are likely the AFL’s frontrunner for the wooden spoon. Even if the sanctions only effect a chunk of the season, it could be enough to derail the 2015 campaign.

There is so much uncertainty behind Essendon and the only thing that can really be guaranteed is that speculation will remain through their season. The club has held strong over two tough years and at some point there needs to be a breaking point. 2015 could be that breaking point.

Victorian clubs now occupy four of the six bottom pool spots, it seems only fair that in a national competition that interstate clubs join this Victorian core four, and two stand out, Adelaide and Brisbane.

Both are likely going to be considered controversial selections, particularly with the clubs own fans, but this is about the evenness of the competition in general. Truly there are 14 contenders for this year’s finals but only 8 will make it. Two will be end up as bottom six teams even though that doesn’t do justice to their talent.

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When talking about Adelaide of the past five years, the inclination is to speak of 2012, where they were a kick away from a grand final. Experts consider this the real Adelaide Crows team. But look at the past five years of Adelaide finishes – 10th, 11th, third, 14th and 11th – and there is an outlier: 2012. Any one of the other four years should be seen as the real Adelaide Crows.

For some reason there is a perception the youth at Adelaide is stronger than the likes of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney. They have lost players though and the ongoing story for Adelaide is going to be off-field as contract debate swirls. A new hard-line approach by a new coach could pay dividends in the long run, but there could be short-term pain.

As for Brisbane, the hype is on a series of high-profile recruits that have built a dominant midfield group. But the true great teams from recent years are complemented with outstanding backlines and strong key forward prospects. Brisbane are still someway from establishing this.

Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs are my bottom six pool. Tune in later this week as the middle and top six pools are revealed.

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