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Poor old St Kilda. You have to feel for their fans. As close as you can possibly get to tasting premiership glory in 2010 without succeeding, only to be left with a bitter aftertaste in the form of plummeting to the foot of the ladder less than half a decade later.
And they’ll be anchored there for at least another year yet.
2014 started brightly enough, with three wins from their first five games. This begat only one more win from their next seventeen matches to round out the year.
» Read the rest of Cam’s AFL preview series
Only four wins for the season. Comfortably the worst percentage. Last place on the ladder.
It’s hard to forsee much better this season.
Let’s have a look at a predicted best 25:
B: J.Geary L.Delaney H.Goddard
HB: S.Dempster S.Fisher S.Savage
C: L.Montagna J.Steven J.Newnes
HF: J.Billings N.Riewoldt T.Curren
F: E.Templeton P.McCartin T.Membrey
Foll: T.Hickey L.Dunstan D.Armitage
Int: C.Shenton F.Ray S.Gilbert B.Acres
Em: B.Longer M.Weller J.Bruce
The first thing we notice is both how old and how young this side is.
The youth is evident with eight players having played no more than 16 career games entering 2015. Another four have played less than 50. Thus, over half the side can be categorised as inexperienced, and will be inconsistent in output.
At the other end of the spectrum are the veterans, led by Nick Riewoldt, a champion in any generation, along with Leigh Montagna, Sam Fisher, Sean Dempster, Sam Gilbert and Farren Ray. No one could possibly suggest their best football is in front of them.
Montagna’s output diminished significantly last year, becoming too easy to tag as he appeared to lose interest in fighting a losing cause. Fisher and Gilbert have missed far more games than they’ve played in the last two seasons. The former is still one of the best readers of the play in the game, while the latter causes St Kilda supporters to reach for the heart pills every time he gets the ball. Dempster and Ray will always be solid citizens.
The middle band of only four players is led by Jack Steven, a very good footballer who will bounce back from an underwhelming and injury-affected 2014. Jarryn Geary, David Armitage and Shane Savage are good foot soldiers, although Savage may have enough upside to become a little more.
Coach Alan Richardson will continue to pump games into the youth, and they’ll provide enough highlights to keep the fans happy, as we saw from Jack Billings, Luke Dunstan, and even Eli Templeton and Blake Acres with only nine matches between them.
Priorities change when barracking for a struggling team. Wins are counted on one hand, and celebrated with vigour, but it’s the small mercies along the way that keep long-term hope alive. Saints fans are going to need it.
St Kilda won’t be playing finals this year, or any time before 2020, but improvement can still happen, and progress can still be made. Which is a win in and of itself.
Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th.
Predicted finish: 18th.